Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:38 AM

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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 903 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon - .
Rest of today - Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots early this afternoon, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots late. Bay waters rough. Patchy fog late this morning and early afternoon. A chance of Thunderstorms late this morning. Showers. Thunderstorms likely this afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Tuesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 903 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis - Elevated winds and seas will diminish through the morning. Chances of showers and Thunderstorms will increase through Tuesday morning as the surface trough and deep layer upper level trough approaches the area. By Tuesday, onshore flow expected for the remainder of the period with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS64 KLCH 291535 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1035 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The heavy rain threat is ending across the area, however light to moderate rain will still linger through the next few hours in Acadiana. The flood watch was cancelled with the threat ending, but ongoing flooding is still occurring as water drains at some locations that received excessive rainfall during the night.

A few minor tweaks will be made shortly in respect to timing, however the forecast generally remains on target.

UPDATE
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing across north portions of the area. Large swaths of precipitation totals 3 to 6 inches have already occurred with more rainfall to come. Shear vectors aloft have aligned with the line, and combined with deep moisture through 700 mb (as seen from 06Z RAOB), there will be very little forward movement in the line in the next hours.

Where there is movement, expect strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Again, the main concern through the morning is flash flooding, wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Expect a deeper dive into the extended forecast later in the morning.

11/Calhoun

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)

Wx map shows surface high pressure off the East Coast and a low pressure trough across the Central Plains southward to Central Texas. Over our region, the pressure gradient is slowly relaxing, allowing for winds to diminish for all areas except the immediate coastal parishes. Thus, have trimmed back the Wind Advisory for SE TX and the I-10 corridor of Southern Louisiana.

Minor coastal flooding continuing with values peaking between 1.5 to 1.8 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) earlier this morning along the coast, and this afternoon across the Sabine and Calcasieu basins. Considering the duration of these southeast winds keeping tides 1-2 feet above astronomical tide over two days now, sufficient infiltration into the marshes and low lying coastal areas have likely occurred. Thus, will keep the ongoing Coastal Flood Warning for Southern Jefferson & Orange Counties and Cameron & Southern Calcasieu Parishes. Further east across coastal Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes, tides reached 1.5 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during the times of high tide. Thus, kept the ongoing Coastal Flood Advisory. With southeast winds expected to diminish before next high tide cycle, lower tides are expected. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories will not be reissued for Monday.

The approaching longwave mid to upper level trough over Central Plains southward to Texas expected to move slowly as the shortwave within the base of the trough ejects northeastward through Monday. Showers and thunderstorms have reformed across Central and Northeast Texas. This area is expected to move across Northeast Texas this evening, with development further southwest.
This area is expected to either maintain or redevelop as an MCS into the overnight hours through Monday morning. Severe weather will be possible, with the greatest risk across Inland SE TX late this evening/early Monday morning. SPC has Enhanced Risk for Tyler & Northern Jasper, and Slight Risk for remainder of area into Central and Southern Louisiana, expect Marginal Risk over Lower Acadiana. All modes of severe weather will be possible. The other item will be the expected rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts through Monday evening. This areal extent has shifted southward, thus have extended the Flood Watch southward as well to include all of Southeast Texas and along the I-10 corridor northward across Central and Southern Louisiana. Did not include Lafayette parish and the remainder of Lower Acadiana as the totals here at this time only ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches.

Expect lingering moisture and lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday, with chances around 30-40%.
Otherwise, south to southeast winds and above normal temperatures expected to continue.

08/DML

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Ample moisture will remain in the area during the mid to late week period. No significant system is expected over the area Wednesday or Thursday, however with the lack of any ridging locally and weak disturbances aloft passing to the north, isolated to scattered mainly diurnal showers and storms will be possible.

Friday into the weekend a weak front may move into the area. This boundary may provide an uptick in coverage before washing out or lifting back north late in the weekend.

05

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A robust line of showers and thunderstorms continues to move across the region. The worst conditions are along and just behind the line with IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility.

Conditions are MVFR at AEX with rain and thunder expected to end around 16Z. At BPT and LCH MVFR to IFR conditions will continue until 18Z. At all of these terminals winds are from the north with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will decrease in the afternoon and become northerly.

For ARA and LFT the line will arrive in the next hour or so with IFR conditions along with gusty winds between 30 and 40 knots.
These conditions will continue through 20Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 79 64 86 64 / 100 0 20 10 LCH 81 69 84 69 / 90 0 40 10 LFT 81 70 86 71 / 90 10 40 10 BPT 84 69 84 70 / 90 10 40 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ430- 432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

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Shell Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:35 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:23 AM CDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:24 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:38 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:03 PM CDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Point Chevreuil
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:36 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:08 AM CDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:39 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:11 PM CDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Chevreuil, Louisiana, Tide feet

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