Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayou Vista, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:54PM Thursday May 23, 2019 12:23 PM CDT (17:23 UTC) Moonrise 11:23PMMoonset 9:13AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 1210 Pm Cdt Thu May 23 2019
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Monday night..South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 1210 Pm Cdt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis.. Moderate southeast winds will gradually decrease today as an area of high pressure builds westward over the gulf coast. This area of high pressure will result in improving navigating conditions this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou Vista, LA
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location: 29.67, -91.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 231712
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
1212 pm cdt Thu may 23 2019

Update
Mostly sunny skies today as temps have climbed into
upr 80s mosts lctns... It is a bit cooler at the beaches.

Otherwise the quiet fcst will continue into the eve and
overnight hours. No changes planned.

Prev discussion issued 627 am cdt Thu may 23 2019
discussion...

for the 23 12z TAF issuance.

Aviation...

surface high will continue to ridge into the forecast area from
the east and this will allow the southeast to south winds to
prevail. Wind speeds will be a little lower than the past couple
of days as a surface over the northern plains continues to move
off to the northeast. Wind speeds will mainly be in the 10 to 15
knot range during the afternoon. MVFR ceilings at kbpt klch kaex
are expected to lift by mid to late morning after 23 15z as a low
level inversion trapping low level moisture erodes.VFR
conditions are then expected for the remainder of the afternoon,
with the possibility of MVFR ceilings returning to kbpt after
24 05z.

Rua
prev discussion... Issued 346 am cdt Thu may 23 2019
synopsis...

a prolonged period of warm and dry conditions are expected through
the weekend into early next week with an upper level ridge
centered over the region. Slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms could return to the region by the middle part of
next week.

Discussion...

this morning's surface analysis shows several areas of low
pressure extending from west texas northeastward to the great
lakes. A broad 1020 hpa high pressure extended along the east
coast. The resulting surface pressure gradient will continue to
result in moderate southeasterly winds continuing across the
region today. This will result in water levels at area tidal
gauges continuing to run about 1 to 2 feet above astronomical
levels. While coastal sites are expected to remain below 1.5 foot
mhhw, water levels along the northern portions of sabine lake and
areas north of calcasieu lake could again reach 1.5 to 2.0 feet
mhhw and experience minor coastal flooding. Therefore, the coastal
flood advisory has been extended through this evening when
decreasing winds and lowering tides should allow for any minor
coastal flooding to come to an end.

The surface high pressure over the eastern seaboard is expected
to build southeastward beginning today and continuing through the
weekend. A persistent digging trough along the west coast will
contribute to several rounds of surface cyclogenesis and
convection across the central and northern plains. This will
contribute to downstream height rises over the lower mississippi
river valley with a broad 588 dam ridge forecast to be centered
over the gulf of mexico by Sunday. Anticyclonic flow will advect a
drier continental airmass from central and northern canada around
the ridge and over the CWA through the weekend. Despite residence
a fair amount of residence time over the atlantic and gulf of
mexico, pwats are forecast to remain well below average through
much of the weekend. This will allow for dry conditions continuing
across the CWA through the weekend and into next week. In
addition, the drier airmass and height rises across the region
will result the first extended period of summer time temperatures
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each day.

Longer range model guidance continues to indicate the potential
for the ridge to push out of the area during the middle of next
week as an upper level trough pushes eastward. Compared to
yesterday, the GFS gfs ensemble ECMWF have come into better
agreement with regards to the trough pushing into the middle
mississippi river valley on Wednesday. The developing weakness in
the upper level height field will support a typical summer time
diurnal cycle of convection. Therefore, 20%-30% chances of showers
and afternoon thunderstorms are currently forecast beginning on
Wednesday and will likely continue during the later half of next
week.

Marine...

marine observations this morning over the coastal waters west of
cameron continue to show winds of 20-28 knots. These winds are
expected to gradually decrease through the day but winds greater
than 20 knots could continue through early afternoon. Therefore,
the small craft advisory for the western coastal waters has been
extended through 1 pm. Moderate southeast winds will continue over
the coastal through Friday morning and small craft exercise
caution headlines continue for this time frame. Winds and seas are
expected to subside through the weekend as high pressure builds
over the northern gulf of mexico.

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 91 70 90 69 0 0 0 0
lch 89 73 88 73 0 0 0 0
lft 91 71 91 71 0 0 0 0
bpt 87 75 87 75 0 0 0 0

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... Coastal flood advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for laz041.

Tx... Coastal flood advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for txz216.

Gm... Small craft exercise caution until 7 pm cdt this evening for
gmz452-455-472-475.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm cdt this afternoon for gmz450-
470.

Small craft exercise caution from 1 pm this afternoon to 7 pm
cdt this evening for gmz450-470.

Public... 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 0 mi41 min SE 8 G 13 83°F 76°F1020.2 hPa
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 16 mi35 min ESE 6 G 12 83°F 77°F1020.1 hPa
EINL1 22 mi35 min SSE 15 G 17 82°F 76°F1019.8 hPa74°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi41 min ESE 7 G 14 84°F 83°F1021 hPa
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 46 mi83 min 14 G 17 80°F

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patterson Memorial, LA6 mi27 minSSE 1010.00 miA Few Clouds87°F75°F67%1020.4 hPa

Wind History from PTN (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Louisiana
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Shell Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:57 AM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:14 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:29 AM CDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.1-00.10.30.50.711.21.41.61.61.61.61.51.51.41.41.31.31.210.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Point Chevreuil, Louisiana
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Point Chevreuil
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:42 AM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:09 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:15 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:37 AM CDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.1-00.10.30.50.711.21.41.61.61.61.61.51.51.41.41.31.21.110.70.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.