Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayou Vista, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 5:09PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 10:24 PM CST (04:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:16PMMoonset 11:13PM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 833 Pm Cst Wed Nov 14 2018
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Thursday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday..Northeast winds up to 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Friday night..South winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday..East winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 833 Pm Cst Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis.. Northerly winds will continue to gradually weaken through the night into Thursday as the center of a high pressure system moves into the region. Winds will then swing around to a southerly direction by the weekend as the high moves east of the area...however this onshore flow will be short-lived as another front moves into the northwestern gulf of mexico late Sunday into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou Vista, LA
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location: 29.67, -91.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 150250
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
850 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018

Update
Looking at latest water vapor imagery, the upper level low over
the ozarks with trailing upper level trough down into east texas
is getting a nice kick off to the northeast this evening. With
that, a deeper northwest flow is developing across the forecast
area that is ending upglide at the mid and upper levels, and thus,
the high level cloudiness is ending and being pushed off to the
east. Therefore, the forecast area indeed should be mostly clear
for the overnight through sunrise. The surface ridge is also
moving close to the region, which is helping to reduce wind
speeds. Therefore, it is shaping up to be a night for good
radiational cooling. The result will be temperatures at or below
freezing for all except the immediate coast, along with the
likelihood of frost.

Temperatures look to be in the ballpark and the freeze warning as
constructed also looks good. Therefore, not anticipating any
changes to the forecast at this time.

Rua

Prev discussion issued 543 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
discussion...

for the 11 15 18 0000 utc TAF package.

Aviation...

vfr to prevail through the period as dense high clouds gradually
push east of the area amid light N to NW sfc winds.

13
prev discussion... Issued 335 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
discussion...

sfc analysis shows 1036 mb high pressure centered over the srn
rockies ushering in a cool dry nwrly flow across the region today.

Water vapor imagery shows a mid upper-level low drifting ewd
across the ARKLATEX with mainly mid high cloudiness streaming in
off the gulf ahead of it, impacting primarily the ERN 2 3rd of the
forecast area. Sfc obs also show low clouds just about to exit the
area with just kptn reporting a low ceiling at this time. As
expected with the dry air taking over, local 88ds are ppine. Temps
have reached the 50 degree plateau in places this afternoon...

quite the change after the frigid 30s yesterday.

With the core of the sfc high progged to drift to a location just
west of the forecast area by 12z tomorrow... The addition of
relaxing winds to clear skies and cold air in place will yield
good radiating conditions, allowing temps to drop to their
coldest of the season so far. Current forecast mins are advertised
in the 28-30 across the NRN 1 2 of the area... 30-32 all but near
the coast for the SRN half. Therefore no changes have been made
to the inherited freeze warning for tonight. Under clear skies as
the sfc high shifts overhead, we should see another cool but
slightly warmer day tomorrow with highs into the 50s areawide.

Dry weather with moderating temps is expected to continue on into
the weekend as the sfc high slips east of the area and a more
zonal flow develops aloft. We could see a brief uptick in high
cloudiness by Friday as a weak disturbance passes aloft, but
little moisture in the low levels will preclude any precip
development. Our next weather maker comes late in the weekend as a
strong shortwave diving through the rockies plains drives a weak
front towards through the forecast area Sunday night. A brief shot
of onshore flow ahead of this system should be enough for the
allowance of a few showers ahead of during fropa. Rain chances
improve late in the period as a stronger storm system develops
aloft and sweeps across the region with a little deeper moisture.

Forecast soundings indicate enough instability for the
possibility of thunder with this system.

Marine...

nrly winds will continue to relax on the coastal waters with the
approach of the sfc high and inherited headlines have been allowed
to continue as scheduled. No additional headlines are anticipated
as high pressure largely remains in control through much of the
period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 28 53 35 65 0 0 0 0
lch 32 55 39 65 0 0 0 0
lft 31 54 39 64 0 0 0 0
bpt 32 56 40 66 0 0 0 0

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am cst Thursday for
laz027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

Tx... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am cst Thursday for
txz180-201-215-216-259>262.

Gm... Small craft exercise caution until midnight cst tonight for
gmz455-470-472-475.

Public... 07


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 0 mi37 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 38°F 57°F1027.6 hPa
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 16 mi37 min NW 4.1 G 7 40°F 56°F1027.3 hPa
EINL1 22 mi37 min NNE 11 G 13 42°F 56°F1026.9 hPa35°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi37 min NNW 1 G 6 38°F 54°F1027.2 hPa
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 46 mi85 min 7 G 9.9 43°F

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patterson Memorial, LA6 mi29 minNNE 610.00 miFair38°F34°F86%1027.6 hPa
Salt Point, LA17 mi92 minNNW 4 mi0°F0°F%1027.2 hPa

Wind History from PTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11N10NW10N9N8N7N11
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2 days agoNE9NE11NE10NE8E10NE8E6NE6E6E5E3CalmW5NE4NE6NE6SE5CalmNW4NW8NW10N11NW9
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Louisiana
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Shell Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:16 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:56 PM CST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:10 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:13 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.61.61.61.51.41.41.31.21.110.80.60.40.40.40.50.60.80.91.11.31.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Point Chevreuil, Louisiana
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Point Chevreuil
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:29 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:17 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:41 PM CST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:11 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:14 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.61.61.61.51.41.41.31.21.10.90.70.50.40.40.40.50.60.80.91.11.31.51.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.