Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayou Vista, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:08PM Saturday June 24, 2017 12:27 AM CDT (05:27 UTC) Moonrise 5:44AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 1015 Pm Cdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds up to 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..North winds around 5 knots becoming east up to 5 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 1015 Pm Cdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis.. Light south winds are expected to become easterly over the weekend and into early next week as a weak cold front sags south and stalls over the coastal waters. This will result in increased chances for showers and Thunderstorms into early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou Vista, LA
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location: 29.67, -91.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 240436
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
1136 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017

Aviation Outflow driven showers and thunderstorms now
advancing south across central louisiana and east texas. Have
included tempo groups for convection at the terminals of aex, lft
and ara as the night progresses with the latest hrrr suggesting
activity will hold together. Less sure about the potential for lch
and bpt and will simply carry vcts at this time. Should then see
a lull in showers and thunderstorms, then reorganizing through
Saturday afternoon as a cool front enters the area serving as a
focus for redevelopment in a very tropical airmass.

Prev discussion issued 1024 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017
discussion...

extensive outflow boundary and associated convection continues to
push south across north la, with additional isolated activity
occurring farther south over east south central la. Hrrr runs have
continued to show the activity to the north progressing south into
the forecast area after midnight, though the intensity is shown
to wane over most of the area. The notable exception is where it
intercepts the presumably still active convection over S central
la. Have adjusted pop wx grids based on latest radar trends and
the hrrr. No other changes to the forecast required this evening.

13
prev discussion... Issued 700 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017
aviation... With the exception of a few showers over lower
acadiana, convection has temporarily ended over the area. Did
introduce some activity returning after midnight. This associated
with a southward propagating MCS now over central arkansas, with
the latest hrrr suggesting could maintain itself into our area.

Otherwise,VFR is expected to prevail. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will be increasing during MAX heating Saturday as
tropical moisture remains plentiful.

Prev discussion... Issued 344 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017
discussion...

showers and thunderstorms this afternoon have continued to
gradually shift to the east this afternoon with the low level
convergence axis shifting off to the east. Also water levels
continue to remain elevated along, especially in the coastal lakes
and bays this afternoon. The pets guidance continues to show
elevated water levels gradually subsiding. With a pretty large low
tide beginning shortly will allow the advisory to expire at 6 pm.

The guidance still indicates potential for 1-1.5 feet of
inundation tomorrow morning with high tide, but will let the
evening shift or the mid shift get another run of the guidance
before extending it. After tomorrow morning that should be the
last advisory potential coastal flooding for this event.

Front still forecast to sag into the region Saturday and gradually
wash out near the coast. This will cause the the chance for
showers and thunderstorms to increase for the weekend. Despite
rainfall forecasts being reduced slightly this forecast cycle. The
high pwat airmass in the wake of cindy will aid in high rainfall
rates, so some locations could get some hefty amounts and thus a
small risk of exceeding flash flood thresholds.

Rain chances will remain elevated through Monday before getting
back to more climatological values.

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 75 86 71 85 50 60 30 50
lch 78 88 74 86 30 60 40 70
lft 76 86 74 85 50 70 40 70
bpt 77 88 74 85 20 50 30 60

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 23


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 0 mi39 min S 6 G 8 80°F 81°F1015.3 hPa
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 16 mi39 min SSE 2.9 G 8 81°F 82°F1015 hPa
EINL1 22 mi39 min SSW 14 G 16 83°F 81°F1014.5 hPa79°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi39 min Calm G 2.9 80°F 84°F1015.9 hPa
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 46 mi87 min 7 G 11 83°F

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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S11
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SE13
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NE16
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G25
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SE13
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G22

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patterson Memorial, LA6 mi31 minS 49.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F79°F97%1015.4 hPa
Salt Point, LA17 mi34 minN 0 mi82°F78°F88%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from PTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S12
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S10SW12S13S6S5S6S3S5S4
1 day agoSE17
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S10S16SW14
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S10S10S9S10S10
2 days agoNE18
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NE16NE16
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NE13E12E17
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Tide / Current Tables for Tesoro Marine Term., Atchafalaya River, Louisiana
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Tesoro Marine Term.
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:00 AM CDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM CDT     0.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:29 PM CDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:18 PM CDT     0.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-000.10.20.40.50.60.60.60.50.50.50.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.30.20.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Atchafalaya Bay, Louisiana
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Shell Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:45 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM CDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:09 AM CDT     1.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:52 PM CDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:33 PM CDT     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.10.30.71.11.41.61.71.71.61.41.31.31.41.41.41.41.31.10.60.1-0.4-0.7-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.