Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bayou Vista, LA
April 28, 2024 12:34 PM CDT (17:34 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:21 AM Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 11:36 PM Moonset 8:36 AM |
GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 1015 Am Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .
.small craft exercise caution in effect from late tonight through Monday afternoon - .
Rest of today - Southeast winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay waters rough.
Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay waters rough.
Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 1015 Am Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis - A tight pressure gradient between high pressure off the east coast and low pressure across the central plains will keep moderate southeast winds through Monday morning. Winds and seas expected to gradually diminish as a surface trough from the west approaches the region and relaxes the pressure gradient on Monday. Chances of showers and Thunderstorms will increase tonight through Tuesday morning as the surface trough and deep layer upper level trough approaches the area.
Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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FXUS64 KLCH 281632 AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
UPDATE
Wx map shows surface high pressure off the East Coast and a low pressure trough across the Central Plains southward to Central Texas. Over our region, a tight pressure gradient remains, keeping moderate southeast winds over the region, although not as strong as Saturday. Winds around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph occurring now along and south of the I-10 corridor. Further north, sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph occurring, and these values expected to continue this afternoon. Wind Advisory remains for the I-10 corridor south to the coast through 9 PM.
Minor coastal flooding still likely, although current observations between 1.5 to 1.8 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) have peaked the last couple of hours and beginning to fall. Latest P-ETSS guidance still a little high compared to current trends, but have come down some as well. Further up the Sabine and Calcasieu basins, high tide has yet to come, and these tides are continuing to rise and likely to peak during the afternoon hours. Also considering the duration of these southeast winds keeping tides 1-2 feet above astronomical tide over two days now, sufficient infiltration into the marshes and low lying coastal areas have likely occurred. Thus, will keep the ongoing Coastal Flood Warning for Southern Jefferson & Orange Counties and Cameron & Southern Calcasieu Parishes. Further east across coastal Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes, tides reached 1.5 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during the times of high tide. Thus, kept the ongoing Coastal Flood Advisory. With southeast winds expected to diminish before next high tide cycle, do not anticipate extending any coastal flood warning or advisories for Monday.
The other story will be the approaching longwave mid to upper level trough over Central Plains expected to move slowly as the shortwave within the base of the trough ejects northeastward through Monday. This will place our region in the diffluent flow aloft later tonight into most of the day Monday. Thus, chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase later this evening, along with expected rainfall amounts. Fine tuning of the rainfall amounts, along with the severe and flooding risk, expected with the full afternoon package generation cycle.
08/DML
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Well, get ready because this forecast package includes a lot of updates with quite a big upgrade in wording and expectation for the next 24 to 36 hours.
To start with hazards... The Wind Advisory was cut back down to the HWY 190 corridor for much of today. High pressure has moved further east allowing for the pressure gradient to relax in comparison to yesterday. Strong south-southeast winds with gusts up to 40 MPH along the coastline are still likely, but further inland, expect breezy conditions below Advisory criteria (sustained 20 to 34 MPH).
Due to the continuation of long fetch over the Gulf, waters will continue piling up along the coastline. As we move towards high tide, expect water levels 2 or so feet above tide predictions which would result in coastal flooding. Areas most concerning are Jefferson and south Orange counties, and Cameron and south Calcasieu parishes which are under a Coastal Flood Warning. All other coastal zones are in a Coastal Flood Advisory for waters 1.5 to 2.0 feet above tide predictions.
The mention of an upgrade in wording for this forecast package comes due to a sudden upgrade to Slight Risk for severe weather for all Texas counties and Louisiana parishes west of I-49; Marginal Risk of severe weather east of I-49. A series of low pressure areas are moving across the central US underneath mid level shortwave trof. This trof axis swings towards east Texas late today before another shortwave pulse develops and moves overtop Louisiana on Monday. There is already a long area of thunderstorms which developed from the main shortwave that now stretches from the Upper Midwest southwestward into southwest Texas. The expectation is for storms to repeatedly die off and redevelop along this line as it moves east underneath the primary shortwave trof today. At this time, we are now expecting a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to arrive into southeast Texas sometime late this evening into early Monday morning. Short term guidance is struggling to sort out exactly what time this feature will move through our region with earliest arrival being about 10 PM tonight and latest arrival a few hours after midnight.
Severe concerns with this line are for some tornadoes and strong to severe thunderstorms; some hail up to 1 inch. Other concern is for very efficient rainfall associated with the line that may result in areas of flash flooding. It is hard to say where the line of greatest rainfall will set up, but with the rain we've had recently, it's not going to take much to cause flooding in urban centers nor for creeks to come out of their beds. QPF forecasts and rainfall total probabilities have only increased and now place 3 to 5 inches with some higher amounts across much of southeast Texas and central/southwest Louisiana from late Sunday into Tuesday morning. The bulk of rainfall is expected from after midnight tonight through Monday evening.
As of now, we urge folks to prepare for severe weather and flash flooding as we start this next work week.
The secondary trof moves overhead Monday afternoon which should assist with moving the bulk of showers and thunderstorms out of the area by evening. However, the boundary these storms are tied to won't clear down into the GoM under weakening flow aloft.
Expect the boundary to move back onshore on Tuesday with another round of showers and storms (lighter rain and lower severe risk)
Tuesday afternoon.
11/Calhoun
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Weak SFC and mid level ridging exists to the east giving way to more of a trof across the region by mid week. Meanwhile the southern stream jet, while not strong, remains across the Gulf Coast through this period. Guidance continues to show multiple disturbances traversing the flow from mid to late week, with an eventual cold front approaching by late week into the weekend. It appears this frontal bndry will become stationary meandering through the weekend.
Given the ample moisture and instability, daily showers and thunderstorms look like an increasing likelihood. Severe weather is not out of the question given the presence of the disturbances and jet support, but confidence is on the low side. An active and unsettled period of weather with increased chances for above average rainfall has much higher confidence.
Daytime highs remain a nearly copy and paste forecast through the entire extended. Highs each afternoon will be in the middle to upper 80s, warmest into the weekend ahead of the frontal bndry.
78
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
MVFR ceilings expected to prevail through the afternoon and evening. Southeast winds ~ 20 kts with gusts near 30 kts expected to continue for southern terminals this afternoon and evening, slightly less for AEX. The expected increased lift likely to generate an MCS later today/evening and move across the region overnight into Monday. Looks to be a prolonged event, so outlooked the remainder of the terminal forecast with prevailing TSRA towards daybreak into the morning hours. Timing highly dependent on place and eventual evolution/movement.
MARINE
A tight pressure gradient between high pressure off the East Coast and low pressure across the Central Plains will keep moderate southeast winds through Monday morning. Winds and seas expected to gradually diminish as a surface trough from the west approaches the region and relaxes the pressure gradient on Monday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight through Tuesday morning as the surface trough and deep layer upper level trough approaches the area.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 87 65 78 64 / 20 60 100 20 LCH 85 69 80 70 / 20 60 90 20 LFT 88 72 81 70 / 10 30 90 40 BPT 82 71 82 71 / 30 70 80 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday evening for LAZ027-028-030>032-141.
Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ073- 074-241.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ252>254.
TX...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616.
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-516.
Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ615- 616.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ430-432-435- 436.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
UPDATE
Wx map shows surface high pressure off the East Coast and a low pressure trough across the Central Plains southward to Central Texas. Over our region, a tight pressure gradient remains, keeping moderate southeast winds over the region, although not as strong as Saturday. Winds around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph occurring now along and south of the I-10 corridor. Further north, sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph occurring, and these values expected to continue this afternoon. Wind Advisory remains for the I-10 corridor south to the coast through 9 PM.
Minor coastal flooding still likely, although current observations between 1.5 to 1.8 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) have peaked the last couple of hours and beginning to fall. Latest P-ETSS guidance still a little high compared to current trends, but have come down some as well. Further up the Sabine and Calcasieu basins, high tide has yet to come, and these tides are continuing to rise and likely to peak during the afternoon hours. Also considering the duration of these southeast winds keeping tides 1-2 feet above astronomical tide over two days now, sufficient infiltration into the marshes and low lying coastal areas have likely occurred. Thus, will keep the ongoing Coastal Flood Warning for Southern Jefferson & Orange Counties and Cameron & Southern Calcasieu Parishes. Further east across coastal Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes, tides reached 1.5 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during the times of high tide. Thus, kept the ongoing Coastal Flood Advisory. With southeast winds expected to diminish before next high tide cycle, do not anticipate extending any coastal flood warning or advisories for Monday.
The other story will be the approaching longwave mid to upper level trough over Central Plains expected to move slowly as the shortwave within the base of the trough ejects northeastward through Monday. This will place our region in the diffluent flow aloft later tonight into most of the day Monday. Thus, chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase later this evening, along with expected rainfall amounts. Fine tuning of the rainfall amounts, along with the severe and flooding risk, expected with the full afternoon package generation cycle.
08/DML
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Well, get ready because this forecast package includes a lot of updates with quite a big upgrade in wording and expectation for the next 24 to 36 hours.
To start with hazards... The Wind Advisory was cut back down to the HWY 190 corridor for much of today. High pressure has moved further east allowing for the pressure gradient to relax in comparison to yesterday. Strong south-southeast winds with gusts up to 40 MPH along the coastline are still likely, but further inland, expect breezy conditions below Advisory criteria (sustained 20 to 34 MPH).
Due to the continuation of long fetch over the Gulf, waters will continue piling up along the coastline. As we move towards high tide, expect water levels 2 or so feet above tide predictions which would result in coastal flooding. Areas most concerning are Jefferson and south Orange counties, and Cameron and south Calcasieu parishes which are under a Coastal Flood Warning. All other coastal zones are in a Coastal Flood Advisory for waters 1.5 to 2.0 feet above tide predictions.
The mention of an upgrade in wording for this forecast package comes due to a sudden upgrade to Slight Risk for severe weather for all Texas counties and Louisiana parishes west of I-49; Marginal Risk of severe weather east of I-49. A series of low pressure areas are moving across the central US underneath mid level shortwave trof. This trof axis swings towards east Texas late today before another shortwave pulse develops and moves overtop Louisiana on Monday. There is already a long area of thunderstorms which developed from the main shortwave that now stretches from the Upper Midwest southwestward into southwest Texas. The expectation is for storms to repeatedly die off and redevelop along this line as it moves east underneath the primary shortwave trof today. At this time, we are now expecting a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to arrive into southeast Texas sometime late this evening into early Monday morning. Short term guidance is struggling to sort out exactly what time this feature will move through our region with earliest arrival being about 10 PM tonight and latest arrival a few hours after midnight.
Severe concerns with this line are for some tornadoes and strong to severe thunderstorms; some hail up to 1 inch. Other concern is for very efficient rainfall associated with the line that may result in areas of flash flooding. It is hard to say where the line of greatest rainfall will set up, but with the rain we've had recently, it's not going to take much to cause flooding in urban centers nor for creeks to come out of their beds. QPF forecasts and rainfall total probabilities have only increased and now place 3 to 5 inches with some higher amounts across much of southeast Texas and central/southwest Louisiana from late Sunday into Tuesday morning. The bulk of rainfall is expected from after midnight tonight through Monday evening.
As of now, we urge folks to prepare for severe weather and flash flooding as we start this next work week.
The secondary trof moves overhead Monday afternoon which should assist with moving the bulk of showers and thunderstorms out of the area by evening. However, the boundary these storms are tied to won't clear down into the GoM under weakening flow aloft.
Expect the boundary to move back onshore on Tuesday with another round of showers and storms (lighter rain and lower severe risk)
Tuesday afternoon.
11/Calhoun
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Weak SFC and mid level ridging exists to the east giving way to more of a trof across the region by mid week. Meanwhile the southern stream jet, while not strong, remains across the Gulf Coast through this period. Guidance continues to show multiple disturbances traversing the flow from mid to late week, with an eventual cold front approaching by late week into the weekend. It appears this frontal bndry will become stationary meandering through the weekend.
Given the ample moisture and instability, daily showers and thunderstorms look like an increasing likelihood. Severe weather is not out of the question given the presence of the disturbances and jet support, but confidence is on the low side. An active and unsettled period of weather with increased chances for above average rainfall has much higher confidence.
Daytime highs remain a nearly copy and paste forecast through the entire extended. Highs each afternoon will be in the middle to upper 80s, warmest into the weekend ahead of the frontal bndry.
78
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
MVFR ceilings expected to prevail through the afternoon and evening. Southeast winds ~ 20 kts with gusts near 30 kts expected to continue for southern terminals this afternoon and evening, slightly less for AEX. The expected increased lift likely to generate an MCS later today/evening and move across the region overnight into Monday. Looks to be a prolonged event, so outlooked the remainder of the terminal forecast with prevailing TSRA towards daybreak into the morning hours. Timing highly dependent on place and eventual evolution/movement.
MARINE
A tight pressure gradient between high pressure off the East Coast and low pressure across the Central Plains will keep moderate southeast winds through Monday morning. Winds and seas expected to gradually diminish as a surface trough from the west approaches the region and relaxes the pressure gradient on Monday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight through Tuesday morning as the surface trough and deep layer upper level trough approaches the area.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 87 65 78 64 / 20 60 100 20 LCH 85 69 80 70 / 20 60 90 20 LFT 88 72 81 70 / 10 30 90 40 BPT 82 71 82 71 / 30 70 80 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday evening for LAZ027-028-030>032-141.
Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ073- 074-241.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ252>254.
TX...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616.
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-516.
Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ615- 616.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ430-432-435- 436.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA | 0 mi | 47 min | SSE 12G | 79°F | 69°F | 30.04 | ||
| AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA | 16 mi | 47 min | ESE 8.9G | 71°F | 30.02 | |||
| EINL1 | 22 mi | 47 min | SE 18G | 78°F | 77°F | 30.01 | 73°F | |
| BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA | 44 mi | 47 min | 79°F | 76°F | 30.04 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPTN HARRY P WILLIAMS MEMORIAL,LA | 6 sm | 38 min | SE 13G17 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 82°F | 72°F | 70% | 30.02 |
Tide / Current for Tesoro Marine Term., Atchafalaya River, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Tesoro Marine Term., Atchafalaya River, Louisiana, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shell Island, Atchafalaya Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
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