Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayou Vista, LA

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Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:39PM Monday August 20, 2018 10:04 AM CDT (15:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:41PMMoonset 12:39AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 353 Am Cdt Mon Aug 20 2018
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..North winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday..North winds up to 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday night..Northeast winds up to 5 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Friday..Northeast winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 353 Am Cdt Mon Aug 20 2018
Synopsis.. Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue tonight as high pressure continues to ridge across the northern gulf. A frontal boundary will slowly move south over the region Tuesday into Wednesday, accompanied by an increasing chance for showers and Thunderstorms. The front is expected to stall over or just south of the coastal waters, bringing a brief period of offshore flow mid-week. The front will gradually dissipate by the end of the week with return flow expected to resume.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou Vista, LA
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location: 29.67, -91.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 201100
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
600 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018

Discussion
For the 08 20 18 1200 utc TAF package.

Aviation
Isolated showers streaming north from the gulf across coastal sw
and sc la early this morning, with additional shower activity
farther NW of the area associated with mstr pool to the south of a
frontal boundary. While sites will generally prevailVFR away from
convection today, expect convection to increase in intensity and
become more scattered in nature later this morning and linger
through the afternoon, with the acadiana terminals most likely to
be directly affected. Thus, have preserved the previous forecast
by retaining vcts at kbpt and klch, while inserting tempo groups
at klft and kara for the early mid afternoon hours based on a
consensus of latest guidance. For kaex, held onto vcts through
most of the afternoon, but did insert a prob30 for late
afternoon early evening for convection sagging in from the north.

Convection is expected to mostly come to an end across the area by
mid evening, but could linger into the overnight near kaex.

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Prev discussion issued 446 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
synopsis...

latest WV imagery and ua analysis shows a progressive upper level
low moving east cntl conus. A trough associated with this feature
extends south over the red river valley, with a cluster of storms
occurring over eastern ar into northern ms. Recent precip water
analysis and 00z klch sounding indicate above normal moisture over
the region with pw near 1.9-2.0 inches.

Meanwhile, sfc analysis shows low pres near kc, in association
with the mid upper system, with a frontal boundary extending
southwest acrs ok into northern tx, while high pres was ridging
over the northern gulf of mexico. This was resulting in light
south to southwest winds over the area. Klch radar shows the
typical widely sctd nocturnal showers and isolated tstms
developing over coastal areas and the adjacent coastal waters.

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discussion...

another day of warm and humid conditions can be expected, with
sctd showers and storms again expected to develop with daytime
heating. The sfc front will nudge closer to the area through
tonight as the upper low progresses eastward. Convergence along
the front interacting with abundant moisture in advance of the
boundary will combine to keep a chc of showers and tstms through
the overnight period, with the highest pops acrs the northern
zones. Northerly flow developing in the mid and upper levels in
the wake of the trough should be enough to push the front south
acrs the area Tuesday and over the coastal waters Tuesday night.

The best chcs for showers and storms are expected along the front
as it moves southward. Meanwhile, drier air spreading southward
over the region behind the front will allow rain chcs to diminish
from north to south. By Wednesday, the high pres ridge over the
southwestern states is expected to build back to the east. The
combination of ridging and a dry airmass should be sufficient to
minimize rain chcs through the latter part of the week.

The front is not expected to bring a significant change in
temperatures, with highs climbing into the middle 90s from
Wednesday through Friday. However, slightly lower dewpoints over
the region will make things a little less muggy and oppressive,
and daily heat index values should stay around 100 degrees or
less. Overnight lows should be slightly cooler, ranging from the
upper 60s acrs cntl la to the lower middle 70s along the i-10
corridor.

The ridge aloft is expected to meander over the region through the
end of the week and into the weekend, with model guidance
depicting the center of the upper ridge shifting northward
slightly. With east to southeast flow developing in the low
levels, moisture will increase and a return to more humid
conditions is expected. This will also allow for low rain chcs as
more typical diurnally-driven seabreeze convection resumes.

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marine...

light to ocnl moderate onshore flow will continue through tonight.

A frontal boundary will slowly advance southward Tuesday into
Wednesday before stalling over or just south of the coastal
waters. The front will be accompanied by sctd showers tstms, with
offshore flow developing briefly by mid-week. The front will
slowly dissipate through the end of the week, with onshore flow
returning by Friday.

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Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 94 74 95 69 30 50 20 10
lch 91 78 94 75 30 20 30 10
lft 91 77 93 74 40 20 40 10
bpt 91 78 94 75 30 20 30 10

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 0 mi34 min S 6 G 8 83°F 86°F1017.6 hPa
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 16 mi34 min SSE 1.9 G 5.1 83°F 84°F1017.5 hPa
EINL1 22 mi34 min SSW 9.9 G 11 83°F 84°F1017.4 hPa78°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi40 min SSW 5.1 G 7 83°F 83°F1017.9 hPa
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 46 mi124 min 4.1 G 8.9 87°F

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patterson Memorial, LA6 mi2.1 hrsno data10.00 mi80°F78°F94%0 hPa
Salt Point, LA17 mi71 minN 0 mi0°F0°F%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from PTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW13
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E4E3W7SE4SE4S5CalmS5S4S3S4CalmCalmCalmCalm--
1 day ago--3S7E5E4SE6S7S4SW9S6S4S3CalmCalmSE3S4S4S3S5S4CalmCalmW4W6
2 days ago----3S10------S5SW4S4S6Calm--SE4CalmSE3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmNE3S9--

Tide / Current Tables for Tesoro Marine Term., Atchafalaya River, Louisiana
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Tesoro Marine Term.
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:39 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:08 AM CDT     0.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 03:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:53 PM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.40.40.30.30.30.30.30.20.20.20.10.10.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Atchafalaya Bay, Louisiana
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Shell Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:40 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:30 AM CDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 03:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:52 PM CDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.31.51.51.61.61.51.51.41.41.31.31.31.210.70.40.20-000.20.40.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.