Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Delcambre, LA

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:06PM Thursday September 20, 2018 1:25 AM CDT (06:25 UTC) Moonrise 3:46PMMoonset 1:50AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 1028 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 19 2018
Rest of tonight..South winds up to 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 1028 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 19 2018
Synopsis.. High pressure extending into northwest gulf will maintain a light to occasional moderate south to southeast flow into the coming week. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms are expected through Thursday. Rain chances will increase for Friday and the weekend as tropical moisture increases and deepens with the approach of a shortwave trof across the southern plains.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delcambre, LA
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location: 29.68, -92     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 200443
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
1143 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018

Discussion
20 06z TAF issuance.

Aviation
Evening convection has finally dissipated, leaving skies mostly
clr. Patchy fog is again possible late tonight, and latest sref
probs and NAM vsbys hint at the best potential near the acadiana
terminals. Inserted tempo at ara for vsbys lowering to ifr (with
lifr not out of the realm of possibility as has been the case the
past couple of nights). Otherwise, few changes to previous tafs,
withVFR to prevail through the day Thursday along with isolated
to widely sctd convection during the aftn into early evening.

24

Prev discussion issued 1027 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
update...

at this time the atmosphere remains in a very summer like pattern
w afternoon showers and tstms that contd thru ss. This overall
pattern will cont into tmrw with above normal temps and aftn
convection... Stronger storms will produce numerous cloud to
ground lightning strikes and gusty winds.

What looks to be happening over the next several days will be the
combination of depression nine in the gulf of california moving
onshore and dissipating into old mexico... The energy from the
storm and the upper lvl moisture will make it's way into north
texas as an upper lvl trof swings in from the nw. This will
displace the ridge currently over the gulf states. By Friday the
ridge makes it's way into the mid-atlantic states. During this
entire event guidance also is suggesting that several weak
"tropical" waves will move acrs the northern gulf. The final
ingredient is the contd moisture streaming in fm the gulf and in
se tx and SRN la. The entire combination together looks to
produce mainly aftn storms acrs the region from Friday thru
Tuesday of next week... And lower aftn temps. Look for moisture to
get shunted off to the east as a weak front is prog to move thru
Wednesday of next week with Thursday's mrng lows in the upper 60s.

Current zones are fine.

19
prev discussion... Issued 638 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
discussion...

20 00z TAF issuance.

Aviation...

myriad outflow boundaries crossing the region late this aftn with
sctd convection continuing, mainly from SE tx near buna acrs SW la
to near lft. A southward moving outflow boundary acrs SW la will
bring northeasterly winds to lch over the next hour two, with
westerly winds noted where additional boundaries have crossed the
lft and aex terminals. Convection should begin to diminish through
02z as daytime heating wanes, with winds bcmg more light and
vrbl. ExpectVFR conditions to persist through the evening and
overnight, although a brief period of MVFR or possibly ifr vsby
restrictions in fog will be possible between 09-13z.VFR will
continue on Thursday with sct CU based around 4-5k ft. Winds will
trend southeasterly 5-10 kt by Thursday aftn, with isolated to
widely sctd shra tsra again developing.

24
prev discussion... Issued 358 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
discussion... Way too hot. Heat continues and current
observations showing temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s
across the region. This combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s is
yielding apparent temperatures in the 103-107 range. Radar
showing some isolated convection along the coast along a weak
seabreeze, with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over
interior southeast texas and through central louisiana.

Similar convective pattern expected Thursday but should see
somewhat more activity along the seabreeze as southerlies return,
albeit weak, through the low and mid levels. MOS numbers coming in
suggesting temps several degrees lower for tomorrow but bumped
these numbers up a bit.

Deeper tropical moisture makes its return Friday as mid-level
high pressure now over the mid-mississippi valley advances through
the southeast CONUS followed by shortwave energy advancing into
texas. This will be in concert with an open wave shear axis
translating across the region left from an associated low now
over south texas. Precipitable water values progged to jump up to
around 2.20 inches. Finally a mid-upper tropical wave advances
into the eastern gulf waters this weekend and lingers well into
the new week adding to a continuation of deep moisture advecting
over the region. It is a rather complex synoptic array incoming.

Bottom line is lots of moisture, much higher rain chances
returning. Finally do have to mention the progged frontal passage
by the GFS Thursday of next week, ECMWF somewhat later. Hopeful
for either solution.

Marine... High pressure extending into northwest gulf will
maintain a light to occasional moderate south to southeast flow
into the coming week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected through Thursday. Rain chances will increase for Friday
and the weekend as tropical moisture increases and deepens with
the approach of a shortwave trof across the southern plains.

23

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 74 95 73 93 20 30 10 50
lch 77 92 75 90 20 30 20 70
lft 76 93 75 91 20 30 10 60
bpt 77 91 77 89 20 30 20 70

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 24


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 17 mi86 min 2.9 G 6 86°F
FRWL1 - 8766072 - Fresh Water Canal Locks, LA 18 mi44 min NNE 1 G 1.9 1014.5 hPa
EINL1 39 mi38 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 1014.2 hPa
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 39 mi44 min 1014.6 hPa
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 40 mi44 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 1014.7 hPa
KSCF 40 mi31 min Calm 86°F 75°F

Wind History for LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Abbeville Chris Crusta Memorial Airport, LA21 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1014.9 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Southwest Pass, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Cypremort Point, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.