Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erath, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 5:11PM Friday December 15, 2017 8:09 AM CST (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:30AMMoonset 3:43PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 401 Am Cst Fri Dec 15 2017
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of rain showers through the day.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of rain showers in the evening, then chance of rain showers after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Showers likely.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain showers.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 401 Am Cst Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis.. Numerous showers will continue to move across the coastal waters this morning in response to a passing cold front. Behind the front, increasing offshore flow will develop before diminishing again this evening as high pressure settles across the area. An upper trough will approach the area late Saturday into Sunday resulting in widespread showers and Thunderstorms. A second trough quickly follows Monday keeping rain chances elevated for the early part of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erath, LA
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location: 29.68, -92.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 151240
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
640 am cst Fri dec 15 2017

Discussion
For 12z TAF issuance.

Aviation
Sfc observations from around the area continue to showVFR
conditions prevailing with mainly mid high cloudiness persisting.

Regional 88ds show a large area of overrunning rains over the
coastal waters extending into extreme SRN acadiana... Vcsh has been
initialized at kara klft just in case some of this activity
manages to spread nwd a bit. Ongoing elevated nrly flow should
linger into the afternoon before diminishing as high pressure
builds over the region.

25

Prev discussion issued 401 am cst Fri dec 15 2017
discussion...

a steady stratiform rain shield continues to traverse the coastal
waters at this hour. As expected, the vast majority of this
activity has remained offshore with steady precipitation only
impacting portions of lower acadiana this morning. The cold front
producing the mess offshore is currently analyzed bisecting the
coast across southeast louisiana and is progged to stall a couple
hundred miles offshore by tonight.

Opted to lower forecast highs for this afternoon as the
combination of overcast skies and cold air advection behind the
front should keep temperatures from rising much from where they
are now with afternoon highs around or just above 50f.

In the wake of the front, high pressure will briefly settle over
the region tonight. While guidance consensus keeps scattered to
broken cloud cover across the area, radiational cooling should be
efficient enough to allow temperatures to fall back into the 30s
across most of the area with a light freeze possible across
portions of central louisiana.

The high will quickly slide east on Saturday turning winds back
out of the southeast and moistening the atmospheric column in
advance of an upper trough progged to swing northeast out of
mexico Saturday night into Sunday. With precipitable water values
running in the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range, numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected... Some of which could produce heavy
rainfall. The severe weather threat still appears extremely
limited at this point due to a notable lack of instability despite
the presence of robust directional and speed shear. The storm
prediction center has maintained its marginal risk for severe
weather and one or two strong to severe storms cannot be ruled
out, but the overall threat remains very low.

The upper trough bringing the rain Sunday will quickly eject to
the northeast and will be followed by a second upper trough moving
east out of the southwest us. Guidance is in pretty good
agreement that this will result in another round of showers and
thunderstorms Monday into early Tuesday although there may be a
bit of a break between systems Sunday night into early Monday
morning. Beyond that, however, guidance continues to prove
frustrating with considerably different solutions. The
operational GFS swings the trough across northern louisiana and
southern arkansas late Tuesday swinging a front through and
ushering in much drier and cooler air for midweek. Meanwhile, the
euro keeps the second trough much further north, does not move a
front through, but rather develops a third upper trough that
continues to enhance rain chances through early Thursday. Guidance
once again merges late in the period indicating a frontal passage
over the christmas holiday weekend although the timing of said
front is highly variable. Continued to blend all solutions beyond
Tuesday, but went lower on overall pops than is being indicated by
the euro. Forecast beyond Tuesday morning is very low.

Jones
marine...

numerous showers will continue to move across the coastal waters
this morning in response to a passing cold front. Behind the
front, increasing offshore flow will develop before diminishing
again this evening as high pressure settles across the area.

An upper trough will approach the area late Saturday into Sunday
resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. A second trough
quickly follows Monday keeping rain chances elevated for the early
part of next week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 50 30 58 49 10 0 10 90
lch 50 39 58 54 20 0 10 80
lft 50 38 58 55 20 0 10 50
bpt 53 40 58 53 20 0 20 90

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for gmz470-472-
475.

Small craft advisory until noon cst today for gmz450-452-455.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRWL1 - 8766072 - Fresh Water Canal Locks, LA 13 mi51 min N 11 G 15 49°F 57°F1021.4 hPa
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 17 mi129 min 14 G 17 52°F
KSCF 41 mi34 min NNE 18 54°F 46°F
EINL1 44 mi51 min NE 15 G 16 51°F 52°F1019.3 hPa46°F
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 44 mi51 min N 6 G 9.9 49°F 52°F1019.6 hPa
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 47 mi51 min N 6 G 11 48°F 51°F1020.5 hPa

Wind History for LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Abbeville Chris Crusta Memorial Airport, LA21 mi74 minN 9 G 1410.00 miOvercast47°F38°F74%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from 7R4 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------------------------NW5
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Southwest Pass, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Southwest Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:15 AM CST     1.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:29 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:55 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:57 AM CST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:42 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:47 PM CST     1.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:11 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:10 PM CST     1.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.210.80.50.2-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.30.60.91.21.31.41.31.21.21.11.11.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for Lighthouse Point, Louisiana
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Lighthouse Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:29 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:06 AM CST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:55 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 02:57 PM CST     1.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:42 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:11 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:15 PM CST     1.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:45 PM CST     1.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.30.90.50.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.10.10.50.91.21.51.61.71.61.51.41.31.31.41.41.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.