Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
East Palatka, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:29PM Saturday November 18, 2017 5:24 AM EST (10:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:51AMMoonset 6:00PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 327 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..West southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of rain.
Tuesday night..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of rain.
Wednesday..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of rain.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 327 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure over north carolina will move eastward into the atlantic today. A cold front will move across the area Sunday morning with a chance of showers accompanying it. High pressure will build behind the front from the north Sunday through Tuesday. Another cold front will push across portions of florida on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Palatka, FL
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location: 29.71, -81.62     debug

Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 180920
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
420 am est Sat nov 18 2017

Early this morning
Patchy fog and some low clouds will be around early this morning as
moisture off the atlantic along with clear skies enabling formation
of radiation fog over the forecast area. Temps in the upper 40s to
lower to mid 50s are noted at 3 am. Local visibilities will briefly
be down to less than 1 mile. Sfc high pressure noted over the nc
outer banks with a weak coastal trough along our coastline. This
high pres system is in the process of moving eastward. A cold front
is well to our west across the central plains trailed from a 993 mb
sfc low over southeast ks at 3 am.

Near term (today-tonight)...

sfc high pressure over ERN nc will shift quickly eastward through
tonight as the fast moving cold front will march steadily east-
southeast while sfc low over the plains moves northeastward. Airmass
across the local area is fairly dry and low level winds will turn
from an east direction to south and southwest today. Any fog and
stratus around before 9am should rapidly dissipate as daytime
heating begins. Modest warm advection and mostly sunny skies will
bring highs warmer than normal with forecast of highs around 75-80.

Favored the warmer GFS mos temps today. Tonight... Changes will be
coming our way as the front will enter our forecast area after
midnight accompanied by a sharp wind shift, enough moisture and
upper level support to generate at least scattered shower activity.

High pops are placed over inland southeast ga around 40-50 percent.

Skies will be mostly clear in the evening before front
arrives... With increasing clouds and forcing arriving late. Timing
of the front... Expected to move into our inland southeast ga zones
about 4am, then located from st simons island to live oak around
sunrise Sunday morning. Mixing of the boundary layer and increased
clouds will result in min temps leveling off around the mid to upper

Short term (Sunday-Monday night)
Fast moving cold front will sweep through the area Sunday morning
bringing scattered showers. Moisture and dynamics limited so
rainfall amounts are expected to be limited. Skies will clear from
northwest to southeast during the day as cool high pressure builds
in from texas and the lower miss valley. Cold air advection will
keep high temps held to the lower to mid 60s across SE ga and upper
60s to near 70 across NE fl. High pressure moves into N ga and tenn
valley Sunday night providing light winds and rather cold temps
across areas from the suwannee valley into inland SE ga where min
temps will dip into the mid upper 30s while coastal areas will be at
least 10 degrees warmer with a north breeze. High pressure moves
across the carolinas Monday providing a continuation of the cool and
dry conditions. As the high moves offshore Monday night... Return
flow will bring milder temps to the area with an increase in clouds
as a short wave trough approaches the area.

Long term (Tuesday-Friday)
Short wave trough traverses the area on Tuesday bringing a chance of
showers with best rain chances along the NE fl coast as it interacts
with a coastal trough. Could be a potentially wet extended period
depending on how conditions evolve with the next trough. The 00z run
of the ECMWF has drastically changed as it moves a series of short
wave troughs across the area which brings a chance of showers to
areas mainly across the far south for the rest of the week. This is
very different from the 00z GFS which still has a closed low diving
se from the lower miss valley into the northern gulf and then ne
across the region which will bring more widespread rain to the area.

Due to the major differences between the models... Have chosen to
take the middle ground and go with continued chance pops with
highest pops across the far south and gulf coast. Due to cloud
cover... MAX temps held to below normal especially mid to late week.

Confidence low on thunder so have left that out for now.

Aviation Challenging tafs with shallow fog resulting in ocnl
lifr or less around jax, vqq and crg. This should continue until
around 12z-13z. Gnv will likely see ocnl ifr until 13z as well. With
daytime heating, any fog and stratus will quickly dissipate this
morning with generally southerly flow at or below 10 kt. Winds will
end up more southwest late Sat night ahead of an approaching cold
front. Low CIGS and llws issues look possible after 06z Sun due to
the cold front approaching.

Marine Light onshore flow early today will transition to
southerly as a cold front approaches the region. Southwesterly winds
will increase to near 20-25 kt toward early morning for offshore
waters so have hoisted sca. SCA is currently forecast go through
Sunday afternoon but could very well continue longer but for now
uncertain on winds Sun aftn-mon so will have to be monitored for
possible extension. High pressure will build in behind the front
Sunday with the high directly north of area waters Monday night. The
high will shift northeast of the region through mid week while
another frontal system pushes through the area, though
greater uncertainty on the details due to model differences.

Rip currents: low risk for southeast ga waters and low end
moderate for northeast fl beaches.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 77 56 63 36 0 50 20 0
ssi 74 61 66 46 0 30 40 0
jax 79 58 68 44 0 20 40 0
sgj 78 60 71 49 0 10 40 0
gnv 78 58 69 39 0 20 50 0
ocf 78 58 72 41 0 10 50 0

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Shashy peterson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 21 mi85 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 60°F 68°F1016.9 hPa (-0.8)
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 21 mi100 min W 1.9 56°F 1019 hPa56°F
41117 35 mi63 min 70°F4 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL24 mi29 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds55°F54°F96%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW3NW3NW5NW3NE8N8NE9N9N10N11N9N8N7NW8NW4NW5NW4W3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW7NW5NW8N11N12N11N13N14--N9N7NE5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmW4W5Calm
2 days agoN10NW10--NW8NW12N12N15N14

Tide / Current Tables for Palatka, St. Johns River, Florida
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Sat -- 02:36 AM EST     1.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:26 AM EST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:11 PM EST     2.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:00 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:59 PM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River at Racy Point, Florida
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St. Johns River at Racy Point
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Sat -- 02:01 AM EST     0.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:26 AM EST     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:31 PM EST     0.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:59 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:07 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.