Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 4:31 AM   Moonset 5:50 PM

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AMZ454 Expires:202405062130;;725396 Fzus52 Kjax 061402 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 1002 am edt Mon may 6 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-062130- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 1002 am edt Mon may 6 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east to southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Tonight - South winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Friday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1002 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis -
high pressure ridge will gradually shift south through midweek with offshore winds developing. Evening southerly wind surges with lead to cautionary conditions for small craft each night until a cold front arrives Friday. Offshore winds will increase Friday ahead of a frontal passage Friday night into Saturday. Brief period of strong northerly winds in the wake of the front Friday night into Saturday.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 04, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 90 nautical miles east southeast of jacksonville beach. 101 nautical miles east of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 061356 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 955 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 955 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The current forecast was on track with little change needed for the update. The 12z JAX sounding showed mid level lapse rates of only 5.2 C/km, but with cooling aloft associated with shortwave trough moving in, should see something closer to 5.5 to 6 C/km this aftn/evening, possibly a bit steeper over inland southeast GA. Storm motion still forecast to be weak at about 5 kt. So, heavy rainfall and gustier downburst winds expected in the stronger storms. Highest forecast instability in pockets, mainly near sea breeze boundaries, estimated to be up to 1500-2000 J/kg, aided by dewpoints in the upper 60s and highs today in the mid to upper 80s. Overall, only slight tweaks to the POPs and highs today.

NEAR TERM
through Tonight...

Quiet conditions thus far as high clouds begin to increase ahead pf the upstream shortwave eastward across the Southeast today. Despite the high clouds, patchy fog development remains possible until daybreak across the Suwannee Valley and far inland areas of SE GA.

Diurnal heating will be initially delayed by cloud cover but highs will climb into the upper 80s and to near 90 once again today. This will yield sufficient daytime instability and support a mix of scattered showers and t'storms along the east and west coast sea breeze. Storm motions will be slow once again today, elevating the localized flood threat. The corridor of highest coverage of convection will be between the I-75 and Highway 301 roadways. A secondary focus will be along the St Johns River where sea breeze and river breeze interact. Potential for strong wind gusts up to 50 mph will also be possible with the more robust pulses - likely along merging outflows. Like the last several days, daytime convection will fizzle after sundown and fade away before midnight. Lows will generally be in the upper 60s but the coastline will likely hover near 70. Cloud cover will clear to the east and promote the potential for radiative cooling and patchy fog development Monday night across the Suwannee Valley.



SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)

Convective developments will become more inhibited on Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure ridging dominates the weather pattern through midweek. Diurnal showers and storms developments for Tuesday and Wednesday will be most likely along the afternoon sea breeze boundaries and areas of convergence. High temperatures will reach up into the lower to mid 90s through midweek with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s over inland areas and in the lower 70s along the coast. Early morning patchy to locally dense fog developments are possible through this period, with areas west of the I-95 corridor as most likely to be affected.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)

Initially dry weather conditions will give way to showers and thunderstorms by the end of the week as a short wave ahead of an advancing cold front moves into Georgia and northeast Florida.
Timing and positioning of frontal boundary for the weekend is showing some discrepancies between forecast models at this time.
Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s for the latter portion of the week with temps potentially reaching record seasonal levels before the weekend. Cooler temperatures are possible for Saturday and Sunday, depending on the placement of the cold front boundary.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR cigs at SSI for another hour or so due to flow off the Atlantic and narrow cumulus cloud band. Otherwise, mainly southerly flow, moist enough conditions, and daytime instability should enable some scattered showers and storms to form along the sea breezes and gradually push inland. Reasonable confidence to upgrade PROB30 convective groups at JAX and VQQ to TEMPO groups, but at this time lower confidence on detailed flight impacts. The convective activity should be on a downward trend after 00z and ending most locations by 04z. Sfc winds will initially be south about 4-8 kt and begin turning to the southeast this afternoon for the coastal TAFs with the sea breeze around 10 kt, then back to the south during the late evening and overnight.

MARINE

High pressure ridge will gradually shift south through midweek with offshore winds developing. Evening southerly wind surges with lead to cautionary conditions for small craft each night until a cold front arrives a passes Friday. Offshore winds will increase Friday ahead of a frontal passage Friday night into Saturday. Brief period of strong winds in the wake of the front may require Small Craft Advisory headlines Friday night into Saturday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk at area beaches through Tuesday. Risk will lower as winds shift offshore Wednesday and Thursday.

CLIMATE
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th
JAX 94/1977
CRG 94/1977
GNV 96/1955
AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th
JAX 96/1959
CRG 93/1977
GNV 97/1955
AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th
JAX 96/1962
CRG 93/2008
GNV 95/2011
AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th
JAX 94/2017
CRG 95/2003
GNV 95/2011
AMG 95/2011

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 89 67 92 69 / 40 30 10 0 SSI 85 70 87 70 / 20 20 10 0 JAX 89 67 92 68 / 30 20 10 0 SGJ 87 68 90 69 / 20 10 10 0 GNV 89 66 92 66 / 50 30 20 0 OCF 90 67 92 67 / 40 30 20 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Buffalo Bluff
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Mon -- 03:13 AM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:51 AM EDT     2.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:32 PM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:08 PM EDT     2.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Buffalo Bluff, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet

Palatka
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Mon -- 02:12 AM EDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:15 AM EDT     3.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:37 PM EDT     4.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     3.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Palatka, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet

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