Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 2:07 AM   Moonset 1:13 PM

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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 246 Am Cdt Thu May 2 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Today - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until late afternoon, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Showers and Thunderstorms likely late.Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely early in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 246 Am Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate onshore winds are expected through early next week and seas will generally be between 3 and 6 feet. Winds may flirt with advisory levels at times today. Shower and Thunderstorm chances will persist through the rest of the work week, mainly for the galveston bay area and its adjacent waters. Although the strongest storms are expected to remain inland, an isolated stronger storm or two cannot be fully ruled out.

FXUS64 KHGX 021201 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 701 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The bulk of the widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight have re- mained mostly north of a line from Lake Somerville to Lake Livingston.
Unfortunately, this means that a lot of the same locations that got a bunch of rains earlier this week are getting yet another round. These storms (the initial development here along with the western activity, which is finally moving into the CWA), are expected to organize a bit more before finally tracking off to the east by mid to late morning.
However, in its wake the associated frontal/outlflow/surface boundary will be left lingering across the FA. And so, with some daytime heat- ing, we could see more development later this afternoon. We could get another break from the storms by this evening, but hi-res models seem to be indicating yet another round of widespread showers and thunder- storms for late tonight through early Fri morning. Current models are tracking these storms more across the central and southern CWA during this period.

So, with this in mind, have extended the Flood Watch through Fri aft- ernoon
This watch will likely be tweaked by later shifts
mainly to include counties south of the current watch. If all this goes accord- ing to the plan, we may see improving conditions (that is, decreasing POPs) by late Fri afternoon/evening. 41

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

On Saturday afternoon, chance for showers and thunderstorms are still on the table, mainly for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region as another disturbance passes just to the north of the region. Although there is some capping in place during the morning hours, forecast sounding show it decreasing in the afternoon, and with fairly good instability, we could see some isolated to scattered activity developing over the aforementioned region. A similar set up is progged for Sunday, with chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly north of I-10. We might even have the combination of locally driven storms along with the storms developing over Central Texas moving into our northern counties.

It is important to note that with all the expected rainfall for today and Friday, some of these locations may have very saturated soils along with some ongoing localized area flooding and river flooding. Therefore, any additional heavy rainfall could result in additional minor flooding along with further rises in creeks, small streams, and rivers. Remember to never pass through flooded roadways.

Things will be settling down more next week as mid to upper level ridging begins to build over Southeast Texas. Fairly tranquil conditions can be expected Monday into Wednesday but conditions will be warming up each day and highs will be reaching the upper 80s to low 90s with some locations possibly in the mid 90s by midweek. PWs will range between 1.3 to 1.8 inches and with dewpoints mainly in the low 70s, conditions will feel even warmer as well as muggy. In fact, might even see heat indices in the low 100s by midweek.

24

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to move near/around CXO, IAH, HOU within the next hour or so. Expect gusty erratic winds and reduced visibility with this line of storms. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish from the northwest during the morning hours; though a few lingering showers or storms will still be possible in the afternoon. Another round of TSRA will be possible late tonight. Have kept VCTS/PROB30 for this package given moderate confidence in location and timing. A mix of MVFR to VFR ceilings is expected during the day, followed by MVFR to IFR conditions at night.

JM

MARINE
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Generally moderate onshore winds will prevail through much of the forecast period. Winds today may reach Advisory levels at times, but are expected to be mainly between 15-20 knots. For the next several days, seas will be between 4 and 6 feet over the offshore waters and between 2 and 5 feet over the nearshore waters. Bays may be slightly choppy at times. Also, strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches could develop at times.

There is a chance for showers and storms, some could become strong, through Friday. During the weekend, much of the rainfall is expected to remain inland. Tranquil weather conditions expected next week as mid to upper level ridging builds over the region.

24

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

There is ongoing river flooding over parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto rivers.
The following river points continue to remain at or above flood stage as of this morning:

- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Moderate Flood Stage - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage - San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Minor Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Minor Flood Stage

Additional rainfall over the next few days, both over the area and upstream, may result in further water level rises and prolonged river flooding. Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways.
Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues. 

24

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 82 70 82 70 / 90 60 50 10 Houston (IAH) 84 72 82 72 / 50 50 60 10 Galveston (GLS) 80 73 79 73 / 40 50 40 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>213-300-313.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

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Point Barrow
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:09 AM CDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:13 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:35 PM CDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Gilchrist
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:06 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:44 AM CDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:03 PM CDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gilchrist, East Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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