Monday, June24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Island, TX

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Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:25PM Monday June 24, 2019 12:38 PM CDT (17:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:45AM Illumination 53% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1047 Am Cdt Mon Jun 24 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
This afternoon..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1047 Am Cdt Mon Jun 24 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Moderate to strong offshore winds should decrease late this afternoon as a line of storms moves further offshore. Winds are expected to shift back to the south and southeast by tonight. This moderate onshore flow should continue for much of the week and drop to low levels by the end of the week. This will allow for seas to slowly decrease from rough levels today.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Island, TX
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location: 29.71, -94.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 241734
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
1234 pm cdt Mon jun 24 2019

Discussion
18z aviation... Still seeing light to moderate ra at gls which
should shift offshore in an hour or two. An upper level
disturbance is producing scattered tsra around cll, expect this
area of convection to remain NW of other SE tx TAF sites this
afternoon. There will be a chance of more showers beginning around
midnight near the coast and expanding inland through the morning.

Not very confident on the timing and location of tsra tomorrow,
so have opted to keep vcsh in the forecast for now. Lw
prev discussion... Issued 337 am cdt Mon jun 24 2019
discussion...

- severe thunderstorm watch to expire at 4am. Severe threat if any
looks rather small. Line of storms mainly producing 30-40 mph
wind gusts. Main concern the next 3 to 6 hours will be locally
heavy rainfall with showers in the low level jet axis merging
with the line causing an increase in rain rates.

- Tuesday there is the potential for more heavy rainfall due to a
combination of several factors. There could be another solid
inch of rain to occur but likely depend upon convective
evolution on the mesoscale.

Short term [today through Tuesday]...

a ragged line of early morning showers and thunderstorms moving
across the northern forecast area with thin lines of precipitation
feeding into this activity. So far, this activity is behaving
itself. The near term forecast still calls for the southern
advancement of a cold pool-driven broken line of showers and
thunderstorms to pass across the region this morning. Current
timing has a somewhat disorganized qlcs impacting the city just
before sunrise and then reaching the coast in the late morning
hours. Not anticipating severe with this activity although the
strongest storms could put down greater than 30 knot wind gusts
and small hail. After a couple of warm mornings in the lower 80s,
this passing rain will 'cool' many north of the city to the middle
70s. A mainly overcast day with slight to low end chances for
spotty return precipitation. The highest chances for shower and
storm coverage will be near the coast and points just offshore, or
where the remnants of this morning's outflow boundary will hang
up. The afternoon will warm up into the upper 80s to lower 90s
and, with dew points in the middle 70s, this will produce 100 to
105 f afternoon heat indices.

The models want to develop a shortwave trough across central
state later today and then pull this feature across the eastern
texas early Tuesday. Couple the lift provided by weak PVA with
higher bouts of greater than 1.8 inch pwat air advecting in from
the gulf and you have some of the ingredients needed to place
moderate to high end rain chances in for Tuesday. An uncapped
Tuesday daytime environment will produce low level 7 to 8 deg c
rates leading to near 4k j kg CAPE and -11 l.I.S. The GFS as well
as the WRF solutions want to fire convection ahead of the west
central texas dry line boundary. They push this activity east into
our area during peak heating so, if this scenario stays
consistent through tonight, Tuesday's pops will be on the rise. A
backing LLJ and weak upshear corfidi vectors indicate slow(ing)
storm motions. This increases the potential for higher rainfall
rates making the storm threat mode that of flooding on Tuesday. 31
long term [Wednesday through Monday]...

Wednesday into Thursday upper level ridging should become more
pronounced over northern mexico, southern rockies and into the
plains. SE texas will be on the edge of this ridge so we will need
to carry at least 10 to 20 pops as there will still be some
decent moisture over the area. Any showers and storms will be
diurnally driven with low end threats of brief heavy rain,
lightning and gusty winds.

The weekend still looks to feature the development of an inverted
upper level trough or weakness in the ridge over the NW gulf into
texas. The problem is that all the models show differing
evolutions and timing for this trough development. For now we will
go with a climo 20 to 30 pop across the area seeing that the
atmosphere by this time should be more favorable for convection
than not. Towards day 8 9 the GFS shows a surge in tropical
moisture along the lower tx coast so this may be worth watching
for an increase in thunderstorm chances.

Overpeck
marine...

the main marine hazards of strong southerly winds and rough seas
will continue this morning. A squall line should push off the
coast later this morning and this should allow for winds to
decrease after it moves through the upper texas coast. Small craft
advisories will continue until the late morning hours when winds
should decrease. Seas will be slow to decrease but should begin to
happen this afternoon and tonight. Winds should remain around
moderate levels for much of the week and then decrease late in the
week. This will allow for seas to slowly decrease to less than 3
feet by the end of the week.

The other concern will be rip currents for gulf facing beaches.

We will need to take this hazard day by day as winds should be
decreasing and cause less wave run up. Rip current threat should
be on the decline but we will coordinate with area beach patrols
to determine the risk.

Overpeck

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 89 75 91 73 92 60 30 60 40 20
houston (iah) 88 78 91 76 93 50 30 50 50 10
galveston (gls) 84 83 89 81 90 100 30 30 20 10

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... High rip current risk until 5 pm cdt this afternoon for the
following zones: brazoria islands... Galveston island and
bolivar peninsula... Matagorda islands.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until 5 pm cdt this
afternoon for the following zones: galveston bay...

matagorda bay.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm cdt this afternoon for the
following zones: coastal waters from freeport to matagorda
ship channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high island
to freeport tx out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to
matagorda ship channel tx from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from
high island to freeport tx from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 33


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 16 mi50 min E 17 G 20
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 16 mi50 min ESE 21 G 24
HIST2 18 mi56 min E 13 G 14 71°F 84°F1015.9 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 20 mi56 min ESE 27 G 32 74°F 82°F1013.4 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 24 mi56 min E 26 G 29 77°F 82°F1014.5 hPa
GTOT2 28 mi50 min E 15 G 21
GRRT2 30 mi50 min ESE 23 G 27
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 31 mi50 min SSE 8 G 12
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 35 mi38 min ESE 15 G 18 71°F 1016.5 hPa (-0.7)69°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 36 mi38 min ENE 19 G 25 77°F 84°F1017.5 hPa (+0.0)73°F
KXIH 38 mi43 min ENE 27 75°F 66°F
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 42 mi56 min ESE 8.9 G 17 72°F 83°F1016.9 hPa
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 43 mi56 min ENE 7 G 12 71°F 84°F1018.8 hPa
TXPT2 45 mi50 min E 16 G 19 74°F 83°F1016.4 hPa
LUIT2 49 mi50 min ENE 27 G 33 76°F 80°F1014.4 hPa

Wind History for Rollover Pass, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX26 mi1.8 hrsE 18 G 258.00 miRain and Breezy70°F66°F88%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS10--S13S14SE16SE11--S11SE7S8SE8SE8S7S7SE8S9S9S8S5S6S9SE13S12S11
G21

Tide / Current Tables for Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas
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Point Barrow
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:49 AM CDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:45 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:00 PM CDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:27 PM CDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.70.60.50.40.30.30.30.40.40.50.60.80.90.910.90.80.70.70.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Gilchrist, East Bay, Texas
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Gilchrist
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:58 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:24 AM CDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:44 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:28 PM CDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:21 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:02 PM CDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.