Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 3:04 AM   Moonset 3:14 PM

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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 351 Am Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 351 Am Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis - Scattered Thunderstorms will continue to traverse the coastal waters through the early morning, but should gradually weaken as they do so with activity coming to an end by mid morning. Additional showers and Thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon with a drier pattern expected Monday through Friday. Light to moderate onshore flow and seas of three to four feet will prevail through the day and much of the upcoming week.

FXUS64 KLCH 040851 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 351 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A broken line of convection, with a history of producing hail, continues to traverse the coastal waters of southeast Texas at this hour. This activity was very poorly accounted for in short range guidance, wasn't depicted in previous forecasts and was, frankly, very unexpected this morning. Still, the seemingly shallow shortwave responsible appears to be losing steam as it progresses and a gradual weakening trend should continue with storms dissipating entirely by mid morning. Inland, another round of better forecasted light fog continues to develop across the region this morning where winds have become light or calm. As has been the case the last couple of morning, this should be fairly short lived after sunrise.

Some of the upper level moisture presently supporting the ongoing convection in the gulf is progged to lift inland across the region today where it will interact with another weak energy wave moving across the region this afternoon initializing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms as it does so. While any storms that develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall, precip totals should remain generally under a half inch and aren't expected to be enough to exacerbate previous or ongoing flooding across the region.

A stronger shortwave and another surge of moisture will push across the region closer to the coast Sunday initializing scattered to widespread convection as it does so. Forecast QPF with this disturbance is higher than today with pockets of locally heavy rainfall having the potential to cause some localized flooding. This convection should end quickly during the evening as the shortwave lifts off to the Northeast in what should be the last of the parade of MCS's seen across the area the last several days. Despite no appreciable upper level support, there will be enough residual moisture across the region Monday to allow for some isolated diurnally driven afternoon convection during the afternoon with these quickly ending Monday evening.



LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Drier air aloft will finally shut off the spigot Tuesday beginning a noticeable warming trend with afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s and even a few lower 90s across parts of central Louisiana and interior Southeast Texas Wednesday and Thursday.
Combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat indices will be flirting with 100 for the first time since last fall. The good news is that this looks to be fairly short lived as a frontal boundary is progged to push through the region Friday advecting noticeably cooler temperatures back into the region by next weekend.

Jones

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

With the exception of KARA, which has some low clouds and ceilings at MVFR conditions, the terminals are starting out at VFR levels from high level clouds. Extensive high level cloudiness as the result of convective blow-off from central/west Texas moving over the forecast area. This may help reduce cooling and help keep or delay the very low clouds and patchy fog from forming until after 04/09z. Still expect at least MVFR conditions at all terminals from the low ceilings and patchy fog.

Not looking at any disturbances moving into the region tonight and with a drier airmass based on the 04/00z upper air sounding from KLCH, not expecting any shower activity overnight.

On Saturday, more stable conditions look to be in store. However, still enough moisture along with daytime heating to allow for isolated showers or storms to develop and will only mention VCSH and VCTS for terminals through the day.

Rua

MARINE
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to traverse the coastal waters through the early morning, but should gradually weaken as they do so with activity coming to an end by mid morning.
Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon with a drier pattern expected Monday through Friday. Light to moderate onshore flow and seas of three to four feet will prevail through the day and much of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 84 66 81 66 / 30 20 60 20 LCH 83 70 83 70 / 30 20 50 20 LFT 85 71 85 71 / 30 10 30 20 BPT 83 72 83 71 / 20 20 50 20

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Cote Blanche Island
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Sat -- 03:48 AM CDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:04 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:02 AM CDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:13 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:30 PM CDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:37 PM CDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

Weeks Bay
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Sat -- 03:13 AM CDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:05 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:18 AM CDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:55 PM CDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:14 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:53 PM CDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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