Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 4:22 AM   Moonset 5:42 PM

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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1021 Am Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Tuesday - South winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Bay waters smooth, becoming slightly choppy late. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Thursday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north around 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth after midnight. Friday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Friday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1021 Am Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
fetch of moderate onshore winds will maintain somewhat elevated seas for the next several days. Mariners should note high flows from area rivers, creeks, and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the bays and icww well into midweek and can make navigation difficult. There is only a slight chance of rain, if any, expected into midweek. Onshore flow should prevail until the next cold front pushes off the coast Thursday night.

FXUS64 KHGX 061117 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 617 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Today should serve as a nice break from the disruptive weather throughout last week. Weak impulses moving overhead may bring isolated showers/storms today, mainly north of US-59 through the late afternoon. Thankfully, these storms will lack forcing/upper level support, keeping them weaker/lighter in nature, which shouldn't agitate ongoing flooding issues. High resolution models indicate 850mb temperatures climbing into the range of 16-19C today.
Even with cloudy to partly cloudy skies, high should reach the 80s.
Ample moisture will limit cooling overnight, keeping lows for early Tuesday in the mid/lower 70s.

An upper level trough/low should fill NE over the Northern Plains/Great Basin on Tuesday. The southwestern flank of this system's front will stall out near the Brazos Valley, keeping just north of our area for Tuesday. 850mb winds will be out of the west/southwesterly during the afternoon, with high resolution guidance showing temperatures at this level rising to 18-22C. NAEFS and GEFS indicate that these 850mb temperatures will be around the 90th-97.5th climatological percentile for this time of the year.
Partly cloud skies and compressional heating with the aforementioned frontal boundary will further improve heating during the afternoon.
As a result, highs for Tuesday will reach the upper 80s/lower 90s inland and mid 80s along the coast. Dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s as well, leading to very humid conditions throughout the day, especially in areas which received recent heavy rainfall.

The combination of above-normal temperatures and moist conditions will allow heat indices to break triple digits for the first time this year. WBGT indices are forecasted to reach 80-87, indicating a higher risk of heat-related illnesses for those participating in strenuous outdoor activities. This may be particularly problematic for first responders and others aiding in ongoing recovery efforts from last week's severe weather & flooding.
Early-season heat can be especially stressful, as the human body has not had time to acclimate to the warmer conditions. With all these factors in mind, a heat advisory may be necessary for Tuesday.

Those with strenuous outdoor plans, especially those aiding in recovery efforts, should be mindful of this early-season heat.
Remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear lightweight clothing when possible and take breaks indoors/out of the sun.

03

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Hot and muggy conditions continue on Wednesday and Thursday.
South to southwest surface winds and 850mb temperatures into the 20 to 25 degC range will result in surface highs climbing into the low 90s. On Wednesday, subtle vort maxes aloft and a passing LLJ should lead to partly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Thursday looks to be hot, but pattern will change later during the day as a frontal boundary pushes through, bringing rain and storm chances. Deterministic solutions suggest a break in the cap later in the afternoon; so have continued with PoPs around 20-45 percent. Overall, look for highs from the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices up to around 105F both Wednesday and Friday.

Friday is shaping up to be a few degrees cooler as surface high pressure builds in the wake of the FROPA. Surface high gradually shifts to our east by Saturday; bringing back return surface flow and increasing Gulf moisture inland. Pattern changes by Sunday as a parade of mid-level shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow moves through the region ahead of another frontal boundary. Increasing moisture and forcing will bring better rain and storm chances Sunday and Monday.

JM

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS and patchy fog should begin to clear out later this morning, with VFR conditions returning this afternoon for most TAF sites. Isolated showers and the occasional storm could develop near KCLL & KUTS this afternoon. MVFR CIGS will fill in across the region this evening, with IFR CIGS developing during the early morning hours of Tuesday. CIGs once again improve late Tuesday morning.

03

MARINE
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A relatively dry weather is anticipated today and tonight with moderate onshore winds and seas from 3 to 6ft. Seas may reach advisory levels offshore (~7-8ft) at times today; but overall forecast is to remain under 6ft. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions remain in effect today. Light to moderate onshore winds and low seas will prevail through the week. Winds will shift to the north-northeast Thursday night into Friday as a cold boundary moves through. Onshore winds resume by Saturday. The next best rain/storm chances arrive during the weekend as multiple disturbances move through.

Beach conditions...dangerous rip currents can be expected along all Gulf facing beaches through late this evening.

Mariners should note high flows from area rivers, creeks and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the bays and ICWW well into midweek and can make navigation difficult.



HYDROLOGY
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today; however, the threat of heavy rainfall resulting in any additional flooding has ended across SE TX. Nonetheless, rivers are and will remain swollen for days (possibly weeks), so please continue to take caution. Do NOT go around barricades and stay out of the floodwaters. Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that it is safe.

Moderate to major river flooding continues, particularly along portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto and Navasota rivers. The following river points are at Major flood stage as of early Monday morning:

- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - San Jacinto River (Sheldon): Major Flood Stage

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues. 

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 86 73 90 73 / 30 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 86 75 91 75 / 20 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 76 84 76 / 10 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ350-370-375.

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Point Barrow
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Mon -- 01:41 AM CDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:23 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:32 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:06 AM CDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:41 PM CDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:18 PM CDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Gilchrist
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:16 AM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:21 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:31 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:34 AM CDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:16 PM CDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 PM CDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:40 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:58 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gilchrist, East Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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