Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Berwick, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:54PM Sunday February 17, 2019 10:28 PM CST (04:28 UTC) Moonrise 3:54PMMoonset 5:04AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 927 Pm Cst Sun Feb 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Monday night...
Rest of tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters rough. Chance of rain showers late in the evening, then slight chance of rain showers after midnight.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters rough. Slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters rough. Chance of rain showers through the night. Chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 927 Pm Cst Sun Feb 17 2019
Synopsis.. A cold front will move through the area this evening with strong offshore flow developing in its wake. Seas will increase to 3-5 feet across the inner coastal waters and 5-8 feet beyond 20 nm. Onshore flow becomes reestablished on Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north out of the gulf allowing for the possibility of marine fog redevelopment for the middle to latter half of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Berwick, LA
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location: 29.74, -91.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 180328
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
928 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019

Update
The low level cloud clearing line in the wake of the cold front
presently extends from near alexandria southwest to orange. Skies
will continue to clear from west to east through the overnight
although scattered high clouds associated with a weak upper
disturbance over central texas may infringe on the western half of
the area overnight and into Monday.

Very light showers continue across across acadiana this evening
although the latest radar reflectivities indicate these have begun
to dissipate. Kept isolated pops for all of acadiana through 06z
with any precipitation expected to be east of the area or
offshore by this time. With skies clearing and dewpoints dropping
into the upper 30's to lower 40's, felt it prudent to lower
overnight lows a couple of degrees across the piney woods region
of southeast texas and central louisiana. Also adjusted hourly sky
coverage to better align with the progression of the clearing
line.

As expected, strong winds have developed near the coast and
offshore in the wake of the front. The small craft advisory covers
this adequately and no changes were required to the product.

With a little luck, we'll see the Sun for a while tomorrow because
based on the latest medium range guidance, it may be the last
opportunity we'll have this week.

Jones

Prev discussion issued 540 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
discussion...

for the 02 18 19 0000 utc TAF package.

Aviation...

considerable post frontal cloud cover across the region this
evening. Ifr CIGS at kbpt, klch, and kaex are expected to improve
to MVFR and thenVFR over the next few hours or so as drier air
continues to intrude. The acadiana terminals are expected to
remain in ifr for most of the night, improving toVFR toward
early Mon morning. Brisk and at times gusty north winds will
prevail through the period.

13
prev discussion... Issued 453 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
discussion...

a cold front has finally pushed through lake charles this
afternoon with temperatures falling from the low 70s into the
mid 50s attm. Temperatures will continue a slow fall as colder
air builds in with the latest high pressure system that is
slipping down the east side of the rockies. Winds in the coastal
waters will become brisk and a small craft advisory has been
posted starting tonight and continuing through Tuesday morning.

Light rains will gradually end later this evening but clouds will
be a bit slow to clear as the cloud shield extends back deep into
texas. Look for morning temps tmrw starting out in the low to mid
40s.

Monday looks to be the best day of the coming week as we will have
a brief break from the rains and clouds. But what will happen is
the front that moved through today will stall in the middle gulf
then lift back to the north on Tuesday. Rains will start on
Tuesday and continue through the rest of the week on and off.

Rains will create some issues with water in low lying areas as the
ground remains saturated.

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 39 58 44 62 20 10 70 80
lch 45 61 50 68 20 10 60 70
lft 46 62 51 70 40 10 60 60
bpt 45 62 50 67 10 0 60 80

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 am cst Tuesday for gmz430-432-435-
450-452-455-470-472-475.

Public... 66


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 5 mi46 min N 12 G 20 59°F 53°F1013.4 hPa
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 21 mi40 min NNW 6 G 14 59°F 58°F1012.9 hPa
EINL1 27 mi40 min NE 17 G 19 59°F 53°F1012.2 hPa58°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 43 mi40 min NNE 1 G 4.1 61°F 69°F1013 hPa
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 49 mi88 min 12 G 20 56°F

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patterson Memorial, LA5 mi32 minN 1110.00 miOvercast59°F54°F83%1014 hPa
Salt Point, LA20 mi35 minN 8 G 15 mi0°F0°F%1013 hPa

Wind History from PTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S7S9S5S8S7S5S7S8S11
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SW11SW7SW4W3N9N11N11
1 day agoSW10SW6SW9SW8SW7SW5SW5SW5SW5SW6SW5W4NE4NW5SW9S10SW9S9--S8S5S7S7S8
2 days agoS8S10SW8S7SW8S7S5S7S3S8S11
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S12S12S8S11S11

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Louisiana
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Shell Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:07 AM CST     1.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:02 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM CST     -0.92 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:54 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:17 PM CST     1.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:55 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:14 PM CST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.10.90.60.2-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.40.811.21.31.21.11111.1

Tide / Current Tables for Point Chevreuil, Louisiana
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Point Chevreuil
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:15 AM CST     1.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:03 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:10 AM CST     -0.92 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:55 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:25 PM CST     1.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:56 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:59 PM CST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.10.90.60.2-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.20.10.40.811.21.31.21.11111.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.