Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Berwick, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 5:08PM Friday November 16, 2018 2:33 PM CST (20:33 UTC) Moonrise 1:31PMMoonset 12:06AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 906 Am Cst Fri Nov 16 2018
Today..Northeast winds up to 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Tonight..Southeast winds up to 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday..East winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of rain showers.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 906 Am Cst Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis.. Winds will become southerly tonight into Saturday as high pressure moves east of the area. Onshore flow will continue through the weekend ahead of another front that is expected to move into the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday. Multiple upper level disturbances and surface troughs over the western gulf will bring increased chances of precipitation Monday through thanksgiving, along with moderate offshore winds during this period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Berwick, LA
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location: 29.74, -91.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 161813
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
1213 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018

Discussion
For the 18z TAF issuance.

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail with light and variable winds
this afternoon. Surface high pressure will shift further east
tonight and Saturday allowing for weak southerly flow to develop.

May see some patchy light fog somewhere across the region tonight
but MOS guidance not indicating anything at this time. Will not
mention patchy fog at this time due to expected sparseness of
occurrence if any.

Prev discussion issued 903 am cst Fri nov 16 2018
update... Clear and cool across the region this morning. The
previous forecast remains on target and no changes are needed at
this time.

Prev discussion... Issued 520 am cst Fri nov 16 2018
aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
sct few clouds above fl200. Winds will be light and variable.

Prev discussion... Issued 228 am cst Fri nov 16 2018
discussion...

wx map shows cold 1024-1025mb sfc high ridge over E tx la ms al
this morning, yielding calm winds areawide. Temperatures ranging
from just above freezing over c la to lower mid 40s along the
coast. Satellite imagery shows very weak upper level disturbance
over the region yielding partly to mostly cloudy skies this
morning. The added cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
nearly steady. Adjusted inherited areas of frost to be confined
mainly to c la where the lower 30s will likely persist through
daybreak.

Warming trend expected for today through Sunday as the surface
high moves east and southerly winds prevail over the region. The
combination of another weaker cold front and upper level
disturbance late Sunday into early Monday expected to bring a
chance of showers and slightly cooler conditions. The highest
chances will remain across SE tx and adjacent coastal waters.

For Tuesday through thanksgiving, a little more confidence today
in this period of the extended forecast than yesterday. All
guidance showing two distinct impulses, or upper level disturbances.

The first one to bring increased chances of showers late Monday
into Tuesday morning, and the next late Wednesday into thanksgiving.

Both disturbances yielding the best chances of precipitation
along and south of i-10 into the coastal waters. Both 00z
gfs ECMWF solutions are in much better agreement. Model solutions
will likely have some variations, but overall should become more
consolidated over the weekend into early next week.

Dml
marine...

winds will become southerly tonight into Saturday as high pressure
moves east of the area. Onshore flow will continue through the
weekend ahead of another front that is expected to move into the
coastal waters Sunday night into Monday. Multiple upper level
disturbances and surface troughs over the western gulf will bring
increased chances of precipitation Monday through thanksgiving,
along with moderate offshore winds during this period.

Dml

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 65 41 68 47 0 0 0 10
lch 64 46 69 52 0 0 0 10
lft 63 43 68 49 0 0 0 10
bpt 65 49 69 55 0 0 0 10

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 06


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 5 mi33 min S 2.9 G 4.1 61°F 56°F1022.9 hPa (-2.6)
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 21 mi33 min S 4.1 G 7 58°F 58°F1023 hPa (-2.3)
EINL1 27 mi33 min SW 8 G 8.9 54°F 56°F1022.7 hPa (-2.3)41°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 43 mi33 min SE 5.1 G 8 62°F 53°F1022.9 hPa (-2.7)
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 49 mi93 min 6 G 7 55°F

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patterson Memorial, LA5 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair63°F37°F38%1023 hPa
Salt Point, LA20 mi40 minVar 5 mi0°F0°F%1022.8 hPa

Wind History from PTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4SW7W8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3N3CalmCalm
1 day agoNW10NW10N10
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N8N5N5N6N6N3N3N3N5N3CalmN4CalmCalmCalm3CalmNW64N6NW5
2 days agoN9N8N12
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Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Louisiana
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Shell Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:07 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:56 AM CST     1.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:22 AM CST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:40 AM CST     1.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:30 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:54 PM CST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:09 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.61.51.41.31.31.21.21.21.21.21.21.110.80.70.60.60.70.80.91.11.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for Point Chevreuil, Louisiana
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Point Chevreuil
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:08 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:04 AM CST     1.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM CST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:48 AM CST     1.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:31 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:39 PM CST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:10 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.61.51.41.31.21.21.21.21.21.21.21.110.80.60.60.70.70.80.91.11.21.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.