Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 12:01 AM   Moonset 10:02 AM

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GMZ765 Expires:202404300215;;585199 Fzus52 Ktae 291400 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 1000 am edt Mon apr 29 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-300215- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 1000 am edt Mon apr 29 2024 /900 am cdt Mon apr 29 2024/
.small craft operators should exercise caution - .
Rest of today - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Protected waters a light chop. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Friday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1000 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis -
starting later this morning, pressure gradients will begin to gradually relax. A small bubble of high pressure will develop over the northeast and eastern gulf on Tuesday afternoon, then persist through Friday. This will bring mainly light and gentle breezes for the second half of this week.

FXUS62 KJAX 291346 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 946 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 935 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure system continues at 9 AM across the Carolinas at about 1023 mb with prevailing southeast low level flow over our local area. Water vapor imagery and GFS analysis shows mid level ridge over the region with a weak mid level trough over the northeast GOMEX. Both of these features aloft will shift eastward through tonight. The 12z JAX sounding shows the dry airmass with PWAT of 0.73 inches and a strong subsidence inversion at about 860 mb. Vis imagery shows some mostly cloudy skies across a good portion of southeast GA, likely associated with some isentropic ascent at about 4-5 kft. Believe these skies will tend to diminish through the last morning. Otherwise, some diurnal cumulus expected rest of today. For the update, forecast looked on track with just some tweaks to the initial sky condition. Still seems possible a few showers possible late aftn over the I-75 corridor over northeast FL where collision of the sea breezes would occur. Just some a slight adjustment to lower POPs there a bit based on guidance.

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Early morning surface analysis depicts weakening high pressure (1023 millibars) centered over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a wavy frontal boundary extends from the Great Lakes region across the Upper Midwest and then southwestward across the Southern Plains states
Aloft
ridging remains centered along the southeastern seaboard, with a broad trough progressing slowly eastward across the Rockies and the Plains States. Ridging in place across our region was deflecting a potent shortwave trough northeastward from the High Plains towards the upper Midwest, while a more subtle shortwave trough was emerging from the lee side of the Rockies and was progressing eastward towards the Southern Plains States. Multi-layered cloud cover continues overhead from locations along and north of Interstate 10, as pockets of marine stratocumulus continue to advect onshore from the Atlantic waters, while a weak shortwave trough drifting near the FL panhandle coast continues to generate high altitude cloudiness. Fair skies otherwise prevail across north central FL, where radiational cooling was dropping temperatures into the upper 50s and lower 60s as of 08Z. Otherwise, breezy onshore winds along the Atlantic coastal communities were keeping temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dewpoints ranged from the mid and upper 50s at most inland locations to around 60 at coastal locations.

NEAR TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High pressure off the southeastern seaboard will gradually weaken as it shifts eastward this afternoon and tonight. This feature will maintain breezy onshore winds today at coastal locations, with the Atlantic sea breeze boundary progressing quickly inland this afternoon. The Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes will collide to the west of Interstate 75 towards sunset, and just enough moisture may be available (PWATs rising to around 1 inch)
for isolated to widely scattered showers to develop around or just after sunset between the Suwannee River and I-75, generally for locations south of Live Oak and Lake City. Any showers that manage to develop along this sea breeze collision this evening will dissipate before midnight, and moisture depth will be too shallow for thunderstorm development. Otherwise, a gradual warming trend will commence today as less in the way of marine stratocumulus moves inland, allowing highs to climb to the mid 80s at most inland locations, except upper 80s for north central FL. Breezy onshore winds will keep coastal highs closer to 80.

The subtle shortwave trough currently progressing towards the Southern Plains states this morning will amplify tonight as it traverses the lower Mississippi Valley, driving a weakening frontal boundary towards the southeastern states by early Tuesday morning. This feature will shift our low level flow to southerly tonight, with elevated speeds in the boundary layer likely preventing significant fog formation overnight. Thin cirrus will begin to spill into our region after midnight, with warm air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave keeping lows in the 60s area-wide.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Surface high pressure off the FL/GA coasts will gradually shift further into the Atlantic through mid-week. On Tuesday, a weakening shortwave trough will pass through the SE US providing some forcing for ascent. Southerly flow will allow for moisture to rebound with PWATs increasing to around 1.2 to 1.4 inches. This should be enough moisture to support showers and storms moving into inland SE GA and developing along the afternoon sea breezes Tuesday afternoon into evening.

Flow shifts to west-southwesterly on Wednesday, keeping the Atlantic sea breeze pinned between US-17 and I-95. Lingering moisture will support isolated showers developing along the Atlantic sea breeze Wednesday afternoon. Daytime highs will be in the mid to high 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Drier air will filter in as surface high pressure builds down from the Mid Atlantic states and ridging aloft builds back over the SE US Thursday into Friday. The diurnal sea breezes slowly shift inland each day but dry air aloft will hinder showers developing along the boundaries.

Friday night into the weekend, easterly flow will gradually veer to southerly as a cold front nearly stalls across the deep south, ushering moisture back across the region. This will bring a return of isolated showers and T'storms over SE GA for the weekend. Above normal temperatures expected with highs rising into the upper 80s/low 90s and overnight lows in the 60s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z Tuesday at the regional terminals. MVFR visibilities are expected to develop at VQQ after 07Z Tuesday, with periods of IFR visibilities possible through the predawn hours. Confidence was too low to indicate prevailing IFR conditions at VQQ during the predawn hours on Tuesday. Otherwise, occasional broken ceilings of 3,500 - 4,500 feet are expected today, mainly during the morning hours at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals, with this cloud cover then shifting inland during the afternoon hours as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes quickly inland. Isolated showers during the late afternoon and early evening hours will develop west of the GNV terminal as the Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes collide west of Interstate 75. East-southeasterly surface winds will remain sustained around 10 knots this morning at the coastal terminals, while south- southeasterly winds develop shortly after sunrise at the inland terminals, with sustained speeds increasing to around 10 knots by 16Z. East-southeasterly winds will then increase to around 15 knots and gusty at the coastal terminals in the wake of the inland moving sea breeze by 19Z, with speeds inland increasing to 10-15 knots by 21Z. Surface winds will then shift to south- southeasterly after 01Z Tuesday, with speeds decreasing to 5-10 knots inland and remaining around 10 knots at the coastal terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High pressure centered off the Carolina coast will weaken and shift eastward tonight and Tuesday as a weakening frontal boundary enters the southeastern states. Breezy southeasterly winds and elevated seas will continue through this evening before prevailing winds shift to southerly by Tuesday morning. Seas of 3-5 feet are forecast through Tuesday night throughout our local waters.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop on Tuesday and Wednesday as the dissipating frontal boundary moves over our area.
Another high pressure center will then build over coastal New England late this week, resulting in onshore winds redeveloping over our local waters. Seas of 2-4 feet are expected to prevail throughout our local waters from Wednesday through the upcoming weekend. A cold front is then expected to enter the southeastern states by Saturday night and Sunday, possibly bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to our region by late in the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds and elevated surf conditions will create a high end moderate rip current risk at all area beaches today, with breakers of 3-4 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 2-3 feet at the southeast GA beaches. A moderate risk will likely continue on Tuesday as breezy onshore winds develop during the afternoon hours and breaker heights remain similar to today. The risk may decrease towards midweek as surf heights subside.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Water levels along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near the Three Rivers Estates gauge will fall back to minor flooding later this morning. Minor flooding is then expected to continue into the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near the gauge at Hildreth through Tuesday, with water levels then expected to fall below flood stage by Tuesday night. Otherwise, minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Suwannee River from the gauge near Branford and points downstream today, with water levels along most of the lower Suwannee River then falling below flood stage before midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 84 61 87 64 / 10 10 40 30 SSI 80 66 81 66 / 0 0 10 20 JAX 84 62 87 65 / 10 0 20 20 SGJ 81 66 84 66 / 10 0 20 10 GNV 86 62 88 62 / 10 10 20 10 OCF 87 63 88 63 / 20 20 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Steinhatchee River ent.
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Mon -- 12:18 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:59 AM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:34 AM EDT     1.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:03 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Steinhatchee River ent., Deadman Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Pepperfish Keys
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Mon -- 12:14 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:29 AM EDT     1.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:58 PM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pepperfish Keys, Florida, Tide feet

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