Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 3:20 AM   Moonset 3:30 PM

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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1030 Am Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning.Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Sunday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight, then diminishing to around 15 knots late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy after midnight, then becoming slightly choppy late. Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Monday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. Tuesday night through Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1030 Am Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and seas generally from 4 to 6 ft, occasionally higher, will prevail through the weekend and into next week. Winds and seas will reach small craft should exercise caution conditions at times. Shower and storm chances continue today. A more organized line of Thunderstorms is expected to approach the coast early Sunday morning, potentially bringing gusty winds. Drier conditions return next week.

FXUS64 KHGX 041735 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1235 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Weak impulses aloft with PWs in excess of 1.5" will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms across portions of SE Texas throughout most of today. Generally, showers and storms look to be weaker in nature, though we can't completely rule out the potential for the occasional storm with a tad more potency. With rainfall being less widespread compared to previous days, highs across the region should climb into the 80s.

A shortwave trough will enter Texas later this evening, bringing with it our our next "wave" of stronger storms and heavy rainfall.
These storms should begin to fire up over Central Texas later tonight, tracking E/SE with the trough and entering our Northwestern counties near/in the Brazos Valley around midnight.
Shower/thunderstorm coverage will later spread SE on Sunday. This environment will contain a weak LLJ, a deep warm cloud layer, saturated conditions in the mid/lower levels with PWs of 1.75-2.00 inches; indicating high precipitation efficiency and the potentially for locally heavy rainfall with these storms. CAM guidance generally places the highest rainfall totals further north across portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area, though the 00z & 06z runs of the HRRR suggest the possibility of heavier rainfall developing further south as well, including portions of the Houston metro area. CREST still shows swaths of soil moisture in excess of 40% north of I-10 and east of College Station. Meanwhile, RFC 1hr FFG remains around 2- 3" for most areas outside of our southwestern counties (North of I- 10 as well as east of I-45). A few locations even show 1hr FFG below 2" as well.

WPC has SE Texas under a Slight (level 2/4) to Marginal (level 1/4)
Risk of Excessive Rainfall during this overnight period into Sunday.
A Flood Watch remains in effect for most areas along and north of the I-10 corridor, including the Chambers county and the Houston Metro area, until 1 PM on Sunday. An additional 1-3" of rainfall is expected with isolated higher amounts up to 5" possible in the watch area. Locally heavy rainfall in these storms may result in flash flooding, along with further exasperating ongoing flooding across SE Texas. While flooding remains the primary concern, sufficient instability and shear could allow for a few strong/severe storms to develop as well with the shortwave. SPC has ports of SE Texas under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of severe weather this weekend, with the strongest of these storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail.

Storm activity looks to decrease in the evening hours of Sunday as the aforementioned shortwave exists to the east. However, weak impulses aloft may still bring isolated rain chances through late Sunday night.

03

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

From a significant wet period, we will transition to a hot weather pattern during the long term. Weak upper-level ridge will build across the middle/lower MS Valley while a strong upper-level low develops over the northern Rockies/High Plains. This pattern will bring a quasi-zonal flow aloft, that combined with southerly flow at the surface will bring warmer and more humid conditions across the region. This scenario looks to persist through the entire week. In fact, deterministic solutions keep suggesting 850mb temperatures climbing into the 20 to 25 degC Tuesday - Thursday.
Ensemble solutions also keep suggesting this hot pattern, with values within the 99th to Max percentile of climatology per NAEFS and GEFS. With that being said, leaned towards a blend between NBM/NBM75th for MaxT through the week. Overall, look for highs mainly into the low to mid 90s. At the moment, Wednesday and Thursday look to be the hottest days with widespread readings into the low to mid 90s.

Precipitation-wise, a relatively dry week is expected with only isolated to scattered activity possible during the day with the combination of diurnal heating and passing subtle shortwaves aloft Monday and after mid-week. Any of this activity is more likely to occur across our far northern counties; therefore, kept slight chances in the forecast over these counties. The next rain/storm chances look to arrive after Friday ahead and along of a weak frontal boundary.

JM

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Mix of VFR/MVFR CIGS this afternoon, expected to become primarily MVFR overnight through the rest of the period. Complex of showers/storms is on track to impact SE Texas overnight tonight through Sunday. Some of these storms could become strong to severe. Heavy downpours will be possible as well as gusty erratic winds with any TS.

MARINE
Issued at 431 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and seas between 3 to 6 ft will prevail this weekend and into next week. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions will continue today due to winds and seas occasionally reaching 7 to 8 ft offshore. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected later tonight into Sunday as a disturbance moves through. Erratic wind gusts and higher seas can be expected near any strong/severe storms. Dry and hot weather with moderate onshore winds and seas generally up to 5 ft can be expected through the week.

Beach conditions...there is a high rip current risk for all Gulf facing beaches through late this evening.

JM

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 431 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

There is ongoing river flooding over parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto rivers and a few sites along Brazos River. The following river points are at, or forecast to go to Major flood stage:

- Trinity River (Riverside): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Romayor): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate forecast to go to Major - West Fork San Jacinto (Conroe): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - San Jacinto (Sheldon): Major Flood Stage - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Major Flood Stage - Menard Creek (Rye): Major Flood Stage

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues. 

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 84 70 81 70 / 20 90 60 20 Houston (IAH) 84 73 82 71 / 20 60 50 20 Galveston (GLS) 80 74 80 73 / 20 30 30 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-212>214-300-313.

High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday evening for GMZ370-375.

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Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:32 AM CDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:18 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:26 AM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:18 PM CDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:28 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:36 PM CDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet

Clear Lake
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:33 AM CDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:18 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM CDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:23 PM CDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:28 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:23 PM CDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet

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