Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hunters Creek Village, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:28PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 9:15 PM CST (03:15 UTC) Moonrise 11:53AMMoonset 10:37PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 318 Pm Cst Tue Nov 13 2018
.low water advisory in effect until 6 pm cst this evening...
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday night..West winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday..West winds around 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Friday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..East winds around 5 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 318 Pm Cst Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Moderate to strong northerly winds and dangerous seas will be gradually lessening tonight and Wednesday. The northerly winds are also pushing water out of the bays so there is a low water advisory for tide levels 1 to 1.5 feet below normal. Low seas and light winds are expected by Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hunters Creek Village, TX
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location: 29.76, -95.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 132340
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
540 pm cst Tue nov 13 2018

Aviation
Clearing line is continuing to progress eastward this evening and
have tweaked skc times with an updated extrapolated timing accord-
ingly with the 00z tafs. Otherwise no restriction issues expected
the next day or so. 41

Prev discussion issued 336 pm cst Tue nov 13 2018
after a bit of an exciting morning with flurries and some non-
accumulating sleet across much of southeast texas, we will settle
into a more stable, but much colder weather pattern for several
days. Freeze warnings are in effect for all inland areas tonight.

Though a slow warmup will commence for the second half of the
week, this will only bring temperatures back to near normal this
weekend before another weak front nudges temperatures back down a
bit early next week.

Near term [through tonight]...

radar shows that today's mix of rain, sleet, and snow has exited
the area along with the midlevel forcing that generated it, and
only some light rain showers persist in the offshore gulf waters
off bolivar. Meanwhile, satellite shows that the cloud edge is
just on the western edge of the area, and the far western corner
of burleson county is starting to see clearing. This is likely
coming too late to help locations mired in the upper 30s break
fast 40 degrees. Indeed, climate sites are largely escaping record
low maximum temperatures today thanks to their temperatures at
midnight!
the clearing trend will continue from west to east across
southeast texas tonight, with the far eastern reaches of our area
staying mostly cloudy until near sunrise. At this time, it looks
like the cloud edge will reach i-45 at roughly 7pm, though there's
a little wiggle room in that estimate.

Of course, how clear the sky gets will have a profound impact on
how chilly we get tonight. A freeze warning is in effect for the
inland zones, while coastal areas are left out. Strong cold
advection will help push temps down, but winds of up to 10 mph and
any lingering clouds will mitigate the crash. Winds last night
just barely kept last night's freeze warning from verifying, so
with the winds a bit lighter and clearing beginning to take place,
it was felt most appropriate to convert the entire watch area to a
warning.

Short term [Wednesday through Thursday night]...

Wednesday will be fair and cold, with highs a good 20-25 degrees
below normal, but at least pushing up towards 50 degrees. This
daytime boost might be necessary, because with clear skies and
lighter winds, temperatures should crash harder Wednesday night
than tonight. However, starting from afternoon temps about 10
degrees warmer, the ultimate result is for a low temperature
situation that is about as cold as tonight looks.

From that point begins our slow, but steady warmup into the back
half of the week. Sunny skies will help us reach the mid 50s
Thursday, and the end of strong cold advection will make for lows
that only fall into the 40s. Still 5 degrees or so cooler than
seasonal averages, but a much better situation than expansive
freeze warnings.

Long term [Friday through Tuesday]...

the slow march upwards of temperatures under sunny skies continues
right into the weekend, when high temperatures finally reach to
around the normal values. With onshore flow resuming, likely
sometime on Friday, moisture will begin to return, increasing
humidity and providing a more solid floor to low temperatures for
the weekend.

Of course, the increased moisture also means that we may see rain
chances begin to creep upwards again late this weekend,
particularly as an approaching weak front will provide a decent
surface for warm, moist, gulf air to get its isentropic glide on.

Look for this front to slide through slowly, reaching college
station sometime on Sunday and reach the coast Sunday night.

Indications of this front will be subtle - the aforementioned rain
chances, a wind shift, and a small dip in temperatures early next
week. The zonal flow aloft simply won't let a much stronger impact
occur.

And yes, I am hoping to end the discussion here without you
mentioning the middle and end of next week. Why do you ask?
seriously, there's broad consensus in the models for our next more
significant weathermaker in this period. But that's about where
the consensus ends. Even with more predictable features aloft,
there is a great deal of disagreement between models about how
this situation will evolve. The naefs percentiles and cips analogs
are not providing much guidance here either. The naefs mean does
not deviate outside of the "average" percentiles. Cips extended
analogs do not suggest much signal for anything, except a decent
signal for highs above 70, and a strong confidence in highs above
60. With climo around 70 degrees... That's not much of a surprise.

Climate...

smashed records in houston today, as both iah (city of houston)
and hobby have recorded its earliest frozen precip on record, with
a trace of snow graupel. This easily clears the old record at both
sites of november 23.

Galveston's official observation only recorded rain, so its record
of earliest observed snowfall of december 4 appears safe.

As for tonight's freeze, this does come roughly two weeks ahead of
the "average" first freeze. But a closer look at the freeze dates
shows more of a bimodal clustering, with one peak in mid-november
and a larger one in early december. So, it may be fair to say that
our freeze event will likely fall in line with an "early normal".

Perhaps unusual, but not that unusual.

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 27 48 29 57 37 0 0 0 0 0
houston (iah) 31 49 30 56 38 0 0 0 0 0
galveston (gls) 39 50 41 55 49 0 0 0 0 0

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... Freeze warning from 9 pm this evening to 9 am cst Wednesday for
the following zones: austin... Brazos... Burleson...

colorado... Grimes... Houston... Madison... Montgomery... Polk...

san jacinto... Trinity... Walker... Waller... Washington.

Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am cst Wednesday for
the following zones: coastal jackson... Fort bend... Inland
brazoria... Inland harris... Inland jackson... Inland
matagorda... Northern liberty... Southern liberty... Wharton.

Gm... Low water advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for the following
zones: galveston bay... Matagorda bay.

Small craft should exercise caution until 10 pm cst this evening
for the following zones: galveston bay... Matagorda bay.

Small craft advisory until 5 am cst Wednesday for the following
zones: coastal waters from freeport to matagorda ship
channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high island to
freeport tx out 20 nm.

Small craft advisory until 11 am cst Wednesday for the following
zones: waters from freeport to matagorda ship channel tx
from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high island to freeport tx
from 20 to 60 nm.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 11 mi28 min NNW 5.1 G 8.9 38°F 54°F1032.2 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 26 mi28 min NW 18 G 22 39°F 56°F1032.1 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 35 mi28 min NNW 8.9 G 15 52°F1032.2 hPa
GRRT2 44 mi28 min NW 13 G 20 38°F 49°F1032.1 hPa
GTOT2 47 mi28 min N 12 G 18 40°F 58°F1031.7 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 48 mi34 min NNW 20 G 25 39°F 53°F1030.9 hPa

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John Dunn Helistop, TX5 mi21 minNNW 13 G 1910.00 miOvercast37°F26°F65%1032.5 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX12 mi23 minNNW 910.00 miOvercast38°F28°F68%1033.3 hPa
Houston, Sugar Land Municipal / Hull Field Airport, TX14 mi23 minN 710.00 miFair35°F28°F76%1033.5 hPa
Houston Intercontinental Airport, TX16 mi23 minNNW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy37°F28°F73%1033 hPa
Houston Southwest Airport, TX18 mi21 minNNW 610.00 miFair34°F28°F79%1033.5 hPa
Houston / Ellington, TX18 mi26 minNNW 128.00 miOvercast37°F28°F70%1032.8 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX20 mi23 minNNW 1210.00 miOvercast38°F30°F73%1033 hPa
Houston, Hooks Memorial Airport, TX22 mi23 minNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds35°F28°F76%1033.1 hPa
Houston Executive Airport, TX23 mi21 minNNW 410.00 miFair32°F30°F93%1033.9 hPa

Wind History from MCJ (wind in knots)
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2 days ago3NE5NE6NE457NE7NE86
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Tide / Current Tables for Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas
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Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:13 AM CST     1.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:50 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:25 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:23 PM CST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:36 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.21.31.31.31.21.21.11.1110.90.90.70.60.40.30.20.20.20.20.40.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:14 AM CST     0.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:50 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:25 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:20 PM CST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:36 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.60.70.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.70.70.70.60.60.50.30.20.10000.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.