Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Apalachicola, FL
May 17, 2024 1:40 AM CDT (06:40 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:45 AM Sunset 7:32 PM Moonrise 2:22 PM Moonset 2:30 AM |
GMZ752 Expires:202405171915;;349634 Fzus52 Ktae 170611 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 211 am edt Fri may 17 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz750-752-755-770-772-775-171915- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 211 am edt Fri may 17 2024 /111 am cdt Fri may 17 2024/
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt /5 am cdt/ this morning through this afternoon - .
Today - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots late this morning and early afternoon, then diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 5 feet at 6 seconds and south 2 feet at 3 seconds. Protected waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms this morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon.
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday - West winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night - West winds around 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday night - South winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 211 am edt Fri may 17 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz750-752-755-770-772-775-171915- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 211 am edt Fri may 17 2024 /111 am cdt Fri may 17 2024/
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 211 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis -
south and southwesterly flow will prevail through the weekend with periods of advisory level conditions possible. The first being this morning as a complex of Thunderstorms moves over area waters and a potential wake low (bringing with it strengthened southerly flow) develops. These winds could last up to 6 to 9 hours producing higher winds and seas. Large scale southerly flow decreases some Saturday, which will lead to borderline cautionary/advisory level conditions with trends continuing into Sunday and the upcoming week. Showers and Thunderstorm chances will be elevated through the weekend, especially Saturday afternoon/evening as the main upper level system pushes through.
south and southwesterly flow will prevail through the weekend with periods of advisory level conditions possible. The first being this morning as a complex of Thunderstorms moves over area waters and a potential wake low (bringing with it strengthened southerly flow) develops. These winds could last up to 6 to 9 hours producing higher winds and seas. Large scale southerly flow decreases some Saturday, which will lead to borderline cautionary/advisory level conditions with trends continuing into Sunday and the upcoming week. Showers and Thunderstorm chances will be elevated through the weekend, especially Saturday afternoon/evening as the main upper level system pushes through.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 170556 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 156 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 931 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
This evening update features a significant uptick in rain chances per radar trends and CAM guidance. An ongoing MCS over southwestern Louisiana is poised to continue moving eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the overnight hours. Ahead of this complex of storms, isolated showers and a rumble of thunder are possible, mostly near and offshore of the Emerald Coast through about 3 AM CT. Afterward, we'll be watching the MCS approach our forecast area. The storms will likely be elevated given that we'll likely still be north of the warm front. Thus, severe storms are currently not anticipated, but wouldn't be surprised if storms contain frequent lightning and some small hail. The strongest storms look to be near and offshore of the Emerald Coast, but we'll continue to monitor through the night.
The MCS will likely make it into our Panhandle counties close to sunrise Friday morning, then traverse across the rest of the area Friday morning. While not explicitly forecast, the last several runs of the HRRR have indicated wake low development on the backside of this complex. If this were to materialize, then gusty winds will be possible Friday morning, especially near the coast.
However, confidence in convective evolution is too low for inclusion in this forecast update. Will let the next shift evaluate trends.
NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Surface high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf this afternoon. High pressure will move east across the Florida Peninsula tonight, then continue on to northeast of the Bahamas on Friday.
In response, low-level southerly flow will get underway and gradually increase, bringing a return of deeper and richer surface- based moisture by Friday morning. A warm front will then continue northward on Friday afternoon through our Alabama and Georgia counties, bringing a warmer and moister air mass northward.
Meanwhile, 700-500 mb flow will back around south of due west and increase in strength, in response to an eastward-propagating and positively tilted upper trough traversing the Southern Plains. The first of multiple shortwaves will eject through the strengthening mid-level flow, zipping across our region early Friday morning. This will drive the cluster of storms currently over eastern Texas eastward overnight. By the time they get this far east, the storms will have weakened some and could very well be elevated on the cool side of the northward-advancing warm front. Later on Friday, there could be a temporary lull over our Florida counties, but convection could continue to occasionally fire off over our Alabama and Georgia counties thanks to lift provided by the northward-advancing warm front.
SHORT TERM
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
The potential for severe weather is increasing and SPC has upgraded western portions of the area from a Marginal to Slight Risk on the latest Day 2, valid Friday night into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the remainder of the region is now in an SPC Marginal Risk. One or more rounds of thunderstorms is expected. The first round could occur or be ongoing as early as Friday night, although the more significant round is expected on Saturday into Saturday night. The high shear values are more reminiscent of the cool season while decent instability is expected. Damaging winds and possibly a tornado appear to be the main threats. Those with outdoor/travel plans should remain weather aware and adjust plans in advance accordingly.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Depending on the timing, a chance of showers and thunderstorms could linger across the eastern half of the area for Sunday. Cannot rule out a slight chance of showers across far eastern areas on Monday as another shortwave swings through. Otherwise, dry conditions look to dominate heading into the middle of next week with temperatures slightly above average.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
A squall line of thunderstorms approaching from the west could impact ECP early this morning. Otherwise, showers and gusty winds with ceilings fluctuating between VFR and MVFR are expected around TLH and DHN later this morning. For this afternoon, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected near DHN and ABY.
MARINE
Issued at 931 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Main changes to tonight's forecast is to increase the rain chances, especially over the western waters. A complex of storms will move over the northern Gulf waters late tonight into Friday morning, perhaps remaining strong. Additionally, several runs of CAM guidance indicates a wake low could develop on the backside of these storms. If this materializes, then gale force gusts could be possible as storms depart. Confidence in this scenario is too low for explicit inclusion at this time.
From CWF Synopsis...Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday as high pressure moves east of the waters. A cluster of strong thunderstorms is possible late tonight into Friday morning, possibly containing strong winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. A cluster of strong to severe storms is possible on Saturday ahead of a cold frontal passage. Showers and storms could linger into Sunday with the front nearby. High pressure and light winds are expected to return for early next week.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
A weak front will approach the area on Friday and Saturday, passing the districts on Sunday. In advance of the front on Friday and Saturday, multiple clusters of thunderstorms are likely to cross the area, with the heaviest rain and greatest potential for severe storms coming on Saturday. Behind the front on Sunday afternoon, the air mass will start to dry out. High afternoon dispersion is forecast over inland districts on Sunday afternoon due to a deep mixed layer and moderate westerly transport winds.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Both the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta and Ochlockonee River at Concord continue in minor flood stage. More rain is headed into the area for the end of this week into the weekend. The current expected rainfall amounts are in the 1-3 inch range over most of the area, but locally heavier amounts cannot be ruled out, particularly if thunderstorms moved repeatedly over the same areas. Thus, there is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall across the area from the WPC excessive rainfall outlook, mainly on Saturday.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 86 74 86 70 / 50 20 80 50 Panama City 83 73 82 70 / 80 30 80 40 Dothan 84 71 78 67 / 60 50 90 30 Albany 85 71 82 67 / 60 50 90 40 Valdosta 88 74 87 69 / 30 30 80 60 Cross City 87 73 87 70 / 40 0 60 70 Apalachicola 82 75 82 72 / 80 10 70 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ this morning to 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ this afternoon for GMZ750-752-755-770-772- 775.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 156 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 931 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
This evening update features a significant uptick in rain chances per radar trends and CAM guidance. An ongoing MCS over southwestern Louisiana is poised to continue moving eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the overnight hours. Ahead of this complex of storms, isolated showers and a rumble of thunder are possible, mostly near and offshore of the Emerald Coast through about 3 AM CT. Afterward, we'll be watching the MCS approach our forecast area. The storms will likely be elevated given that we'll likely still be north of the warm front. Thus, severe storms are currently not anticipated, but wouldn't be surprised if storms contain frequent lightning and some small hail. The strongest storms look to be near and offshore of the Emerald Coast, but we'll continue to monitor through the night.
The MCS will likely make it into our Panhandle counties close to sunrise Friday morning, then traverse across the rest of the area Friday morning. While not explicitly forecast, the last several runs of the HRRR have indicated wake low development on the backside of this complex. If this were to materialize, then gusty winds will be possible Friday morning, especially near the coast.
However, confidence in convective evolution is too low for inclusion in this forecast update. Will let the next shift evaluate trends.
NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Surface high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf this afternoon. High pressure will move east across the Florida Peninsula tonight, then continue on to northeast of the Bahamas on Friday.
In response, low-level southerly flow will get underway and gradually increase, bringing a return of deeper and richer surface- based moisture by Friday morning. A warm front will then continue northward on Friday afternoon through our Alabama and Georgia counties, bringing a warmer and moister air mass northward.
Meanwhile, 700-500 mb flow will back around south of due west and increase in strength, in response to an eastward-propagating and positively tilted upper trough traversing the Southern Plains. The first of multiple shortwaves will eject through the strengthening mid-level flow, zipping across our region early Friday morning. This will drive the cluster of storms currently over eastern Texas eastward overnight. By the time they get this far east, the storms will have weakened some and could very well be elevated on the cool side of the northward-advancing warm front. Later on Friday, there could be a temporary lull over our Florida counties, but convection could continue to occasionally fire off over our Alabama and Georgia counties thanks to lift provided by the northward-advancing warm front.
SHORT TERM
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
The potential for severe weather is increasing and SPC has upgraded western portions of the area from a Marginal to Slight Risk on the latest Day 2, valid Friday night into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the remainder of the region is now in an SPC Marginal Risk. One or more rounds of thunderstorms is expected. The first round could occur or be ongoing as early as Friday night, although the more significant round is expected on Saturday into Saturday night. The high shear values are more reminiscent of the cool season while decent instability is expected. Damaging winds and possibly a tornado appear to be the main threats. Those with outdoor/travel plans should remain weather aware and adjust plans in advance accordingly.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Depending on the timing, a chance of showers and thunderstorms could linger across the eastern half of the area for Sunday. Cannot rule out a slight chance of showers across far eastern areas on Monday as another shortwave swings through. Otherwise, dry conditions look to dominate heading into the middle of next week with temperatures slightly above average.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
A squall line of thunderstorms approaching from the west could impact ECP early this morning. Otherwise, showers and gusty winds with ceilings fluctuating between VFR and MVFR are expected around TLH and DHN later this morning. For this afternoon, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected near DHN and ABY.
MARINE
Issued at 931 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Main changes to tonight's forecast is to increase the rain chances, especially over the western waters. A complex of storms will move over the northern Gulf waters late tonight into Friday morning, perhaps remaining strong. Additionally, several runs of CAM guidance indicates a wake low could develop on the backside of these storms. If this materializes, then gale force gusts could be possible as storms depart. Confidence in this scenario is too low for explicit inclusion at this time.
From CWF Synopsis...Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday as high pressure moves east of the waters. A cluster of strong thunderstorms is possible late tonight into Friday morning, possibly containing strong winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. A cluster of strong to severe storms is possible on Saturday ahead of a cold frontal passage. Showers and storms could linger into Sunday with the front nearby. High pressure and light winds are expected to return for early next week.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
A weak front will approach the area on Friday and Saturday, passing the districts on Sunday. In advance of the front on Friday and Saturday, multiple clusters of thunderstorms are likely to cross the area, with the heaviest rain and greatest potential for severe storms coming on Saturday. Behind the front on Sunday afternoon, the air mass will start to dry out. High afternoon dispersion is forecast over inland districts on Sunday afternoon due to a deep mixed layer and moderate westerly transport winds.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Both the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta and Ochlockonee River at Concord continue in minor flood stage. More rain is headed into the area for the end of this week into the weekend. The current expected rainfall amounts are in the 1-3 inch range over most of the area, but locally heavier amounts cannot be ruled out, particularly if thunderstorms moved repeatedly over the same areas. Thus, there is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall across the area from the WPC excessive rainfall outlook, mainly on Saturday.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 86 74 86 70 / 50 20 80 50 Panama City 83 73 82 70 / 80 30 80 40 Dothan 84 71 78 67 / 60 50 90 30 Albany 85 71 82 67 / 60 50 90 40 Valdosta 88 74 87 69 / 30 30 80 60 Cross City 87 73 87 70 / 40 0 60 70 Apalachicola 82 75 82 72 / 80 10 70 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ this morning to 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ this afternoon for GMZ750-752-755-770-772- 775.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL | 4 mi | 52 min | WSW 4.1G | 78°F | 78°F | 29.85 | ||
| APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL | 8 mi | 100 min | SSE 1 | 77°F | 29.86 | 73°F | ||
| SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL | 26 mi | 100 min | 77°F | 29.85 | ||||
| PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL | 43 mi | 52 min | SSE 8.9G | 81°F | ||||
| SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL | 44 mi | 166 min | SW 6G | 79°F | 56 ft | 29.83 | 72°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KAAF APALACHICOLA RGNLCLEVE RANDOLPH FIELD,FL | 2 sm | 47 min | SW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 72°F | 79% | 29.85 |
Apalachicola
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT 0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 12:26 PM EDT 1.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:28 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 06:37 PM EDT 0.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:18 PM EDT 1.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT 0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 12:26 PM EDT 1.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:28 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 06:37 PM EDT 0.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:18 PM EDT 1.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Apalachicola, Apalachicola Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Cat Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:45 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 12:56 PM EDT 1.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:27 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:21 PM EDT 1.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:53 PM EDT 1.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:45 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 12:56 PM EDT 1.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:27 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:21 PM EDT 1.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:53 PM EDT 1.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cat Point, Apalachicola Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.9 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.5 |
Tallahassee, FL,
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