Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 1:06 PM   Moonset 1:39 AM

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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 1014 Pm Cdt Thu May 16 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 7 am cdt Friday - .
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late this evening, then a slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms late. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Lake waters light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Saturday - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Saturday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming north around 5 knots after midnight. Lake waters smooth. Sunday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Lake waters smooth. Sunday night - South winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Tuesday - South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 1014 Pm Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis - Widespread showers and Thunderstorms will continue into Friday evening as a low pressure system moves across the area. Onshore flow will be between 15 and 20 knots with seas to 3-5 feet. Winds and seas could be significantly stronger in the vicinity of storms. Winds will weaken by Friday afternoon with seas gradually falling through the weekend. No precip is expected this weekend through next week as light onshore flow prevails.

FXUS64 KLCH 162315 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 615 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The warm front is currently lifting across the region with a rapid destabilization of the atmosphere underway. CAMs show a robust and rapid development of showers and storms with multiple focus areas. The first area will be an east/west oriented MCS walking south that will move into central LA and inland SETX this evening.
The second focus will be in the broader warm sector south of the lifting warm front.

Numerous showers and storms will rapidly intensify and drift/merge into the MCS walking south. This will enhance the overall flash flood threat as training convection could lead to impressive 1hr/3hr totals, especially where cell mergers are able to push instantaneous rainfall rates in the 5-7" range. With already saturated grounds and elevated/flooded waterways, it will not take much for significant flash flooding. In fact, we have much of the area in a moderate and high risk for this very threat. These High Risk days are exceedingly rare and account for the majority of flood fatalities. We can not emphasize enough how quickly things could go south as the evening wears on. Flash flooding is even more dangerous at night.

For the severe threat, there is a Tornado Watch until 11pm for the entire area. Tornadoes will be possible with any QLCS circulation and/or supercell along/just south of the lifting warm front.
Damaging winds and large hail will also pose a threat this evening withe modest HRRR probabilities showing wind gusts in excess of 50kts and localized areas upwards of 60kts possible. The focus area seems to be along the I-10 corridor.

With regards to rainfall amounts, widespread 2-6 inches are likely, which is supported by all guidance with HRRR LPMM/HRRR/Other high res CAMs showing a reasonable worst case (90% exceedance) scenarios of approaching 12" of rain. Highest probabilities for these totals exists across inland SETX and into central LA.

Now for the second round from Friday afternoon into Friday evening and early Saturday morning. This situation will be different as SW flow increase across the area with robust upper level diffluent flow. This overall synoptic pattern remains stationary for some time, which will allow significant and sustained moisture advection streaming across the region. While severe weather is possible, flash flooding remains the biggest threat. PWAT values could reach into the 2.0 to 2.25"+ range with favorable and efficient ingredients for intense rainfall rates and training.
ECMWF EFFI values point to significant rainfall totals, which further adds to the building confidence in the second round. As always, there remains some uncertainty as to where the axis of heaviest rainfall sets up. Currently guidance suggest this will fall primarily over Acadiana and generally east of a line from Lake Charles to Opelousas. Several more inches of rain will be possible in these areas with new/renewed/worsening flash flooding impacts. It is likely some areas will overlap seeing significant rainfall from round 1 and 2, thus increasing their flood risk.

Finally by early Saturday morning, much of the activity should be exiting the region. Lingering showers/storms will be possible over Acadiana, but much of the area dry.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The start of next week will be dominated by high pressure that will settle overhead. The high pressure will remain our main weather feature through Wednesday. Clear skies and south winds will lead to widespread low 90-degree highs across the region, with dew points in the mid-70s. This will lead to heat index values in the upper 90s and even a few inland areas feeling like the triple digits.

Long-range models are starting to hint at another round of rain on Thursday as a disturbance moves across the region. It is still way too far out to give any specifics, but we could see our temperatures dip down back into the upper 80s. 

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

An upper level disturbance will move east across the forecast area this evening and tonight and bring a likely meso complex of storms with it. Have tried to time this feature as best as possible.
Gusty winds, lower visibilities with heavy rainfall and low ceilings will be possible with the storms, with IFR conditions.

Expecting a break after 17/06z, with the potential for more storms on Friday afternoon.

Rua

MARINE
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop across the coastal waters this evening and continue into Friday evening as a low pressure system moves across the area. Onshore flow will between 15 and 20 knots will continue this evening as the low approaches increasing seas to 3-5 feet. Winds and seas could be significantly stronger in the vicinity of storms. Winds will weaken by Friday afternoon with seas gradually falling through the weekend. No precip is expected this weekend through next week as light onshore flow prevails.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 65 81 66 87 / 90 40 40 30 LCH 70 85 70 87 / 80 50 50 20 LFT 72 89 71 87 / 80 60 60 40 BPT 72 85 69 89 / 70 40 40 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch through late Friday night for LAZ027>033-044-045- 141>143-152-241>243.

TX...Flood Watch through late Friday night for TXZ180-201-259>262-515- 516-615-616.

GM...None.

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Mesquite Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:39 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:34 AM CDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:20 PM CDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:05 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:37 PM CDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mesquite Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, Tide feet

Sabine Pass (jetty)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:38 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:28 AM CDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:58 AM CDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:05 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:31 PM CDT     1.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:05 PM CDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sabine Pass (jetty), Texas, Tide feet

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Lake Charles, LA,