Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Butler Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 8:20PM Monday May 29, 2017 5:06 PM EDT (21:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:27AMMoonset 11:18PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 250 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots...becoming west southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots...becoming east southeast 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters becoming a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters mostly smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots...becoming east southeast 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters becoming a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday through Friday..South southeast winds 10 knots. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night and Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 250 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis.. A frontal boundary will approach the georgia waters from the northwest on Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon through the upcoming weekend as this weak boundary persists over the coastal waters...with generally light wind speeds expected outside of Thunderstorm activity through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butler Beach, FL
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location: 29.77, -81.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 292018
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
418 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Increasing chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
beginning Tuesday...

Currently
Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1019 millibars)
centered over the southeast gulf of mexico, extending eastward
across south florida and into the western atlantic waters.

Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary extends from coastal texas
northeastward through the lower mississippi and tennessee valleys.

Aloft... Deep layered ridging prevails over our region and is
centered just northeast of the bahamas, while a trough was
deepening over the western great lakes and digging southward
through the upper midwest. A large mesoscale convective system
(mcs) generated along the frontal boundary over texas earlier
today has pushed into the west central gulf waters, with
convection associated with shortwave energy on the edge of this
mcs developing a batch of convection that is progressing quickly
northeastward across central and northern georgia. A generally
flat cumulus field and some patches of cirrus debris are found
over our region, with another hot day in progress for locations
along and west of interstate 95. Temperatures as of 20z are in the
low to mid 90s inland, with the sea breeze cooling coastal
locations east of i-95 back into the upper 80s. Inland dewpoints
have fallen to the mid 60s, with lower 70s at the coast.

Near term this afternoon through Tuesday
Short-term high resolution guidance suggests that an outflow
boundary originating from convection over central georgia will
propagate southeastward into interior southeast georgia around
sunset. We remain in a largely dry and suppressed environment, so
this outflow will probably have to collide with the atlantic sea
breeze early this evening to break our atmospheric cap to develop
isolated convection, and this would probably be for locations
between alma waycross and interstate 95. Since confidence remains
low, we have only placed isolated pops in the forecast grids for
early this evening in these locations. Otherwise, we expect fair
skies to prevail, with low level moisture increasing enough for
some patchy fog formation possible in north central florida and
the suwannee valley. Lows will range around 70 inland to the mid
70s at the beaches.

The trough aloft currently digging into the upper midwest will
expand and dig southeastward, covering the rest of the great
lakes states and the ohio valley. The ridge to our east will push
a little further into the atlantic waters, forcing cyclonic flow
to overspread our region and resulting in southwesterly flow aloft
strengthening. This flow will advect a shortwave trough currently
associated with the MCS over the western gulf into the florida
panhandle and southwest florida by late afternoon. This weather
pattern will also push the frontal boundary into central georgia
and southern alabama by late afternoon. Deep layered moisture will
be slow to increase, which should keep coverage scattered for much
of our region despite increasing forcing arriving from the
southwest late in the day. Convection will probably be generated
along the atlantic sea breeze, which should push west of u.S.

Highway 301 corridor by the late afternoon hours. Highs will top
our around 90 at coastal locations before the sea breeze moves
inland during the early afternoon, with another hot and
increasingly humid day inland, where highs will likely reach the
mid 90s before convection develops. Lingering dry air in the mid
levels will enhance the downburst potential tomorrow afternoon,
with dcape values progged to be in excess of 1100 j kg per model
soundings over much of our area tomorrow afternoon. Storms may
pulse into the severe category as mesoscale boundary collisions
increase, with damaging wind gusts, small hail, and frequent
lightning strikes being the primary hazards.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
Tuesday evening... A few afternoon thunderstorms will linger into
the evening hours along the i-95 corridor, with warm and muggy
conditions expected for most areas. There could also be additional
thunderstorm development during the early morning hours across
southeast georgia due to increased upper level support.

Wednesday and Thursday... Seasonably hot and humid conditions will
prevail. Storms will increase to at least scattered coverage each
afternoon and evening as seabreeze outflow boundaries interact and
take advantage of an increasingly moist and unstable atmosphere.

There will also be some upper level support in the form of embedded
shortwave troughs migrating through the eastern periphery of the
broad longwave trough aloft. A few severe storms will be possible
both days. Locally heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and intense lightning will all be possible with the
strongest storms.

Long term Friday through Monday
Daily summertime convection will continue, with scattered to
numerous diurnal thunderstorm coverage expected each afternoon and
evening. Broad upper troughing aloft along with cooler 500 mb
temps and plenty of instability and adequate moisture each
afternoon will also provide a continued threat for a few strong to
severe storms each afternoon, especially where seabreeze outflow
boundaries collide.

Temperatures during this period will settle closer to normal due
to increasing coverage of clouds storms, with warm and humid
conditions prevailing.

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 08z. The atlantic sea breeze will move across the jax
terminals by 21z and vqq towards 22z, with surface winds becoming
southeasterly around 10 knots through sunset. Patchy fog will
develop inland tonight, with MVFR visibilities possibly developing
after 08z at gnv and vqq.

Marine
High pressure extending from the western atlantic into the
southeast gulf of mexico will slowly lift northward during the
next few days, but will remain centered south of our waters. This
will create light offshore flow during the overnight and morning
hours, with the atlantic sea breeze developing around noon over
the near shore waters and pushing inland each afternoon.

Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary will approach the southeast
georgia waters from the northwest on Tuesday afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage each
afternoon and evening, with activity most likely impacting the
near shore waters during the late afternoon and evening hours,
progressing into the offshore waters during the late evening and
overnight hours. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be
possible, with damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes
being the primary threats. Outside of thunderstorm activity, a
weak local pressure gradient will remain in place and will
result in mostly light wind speeds into next weekend.

Rip currents: low risk expected to continue through at least
Thursday due to low surf heights. Sea breezes will develop each
afternoon with breezy conditions developing at area beaches, but
low wave heights will not create a large-scale elevated risk.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 69 91 69 90 10 20 10 30
ssi 76 89 73 86 10 40 30 40
jax 71 93 72 90 10 40 30 50
sgj 73 91 74 88 0 40 40 40
gnv 69 94 70 92 0 30 20 40
ocf 69 94 70 92 0 20 20 40

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Nelson shuler corless


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 6 mi66 min SE 9.9 G 11 79°F 80°F1017.5 hPa (-1.4)
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 8 mi81 min ESE 8.9 87°F 1018 hPa72°F
RCYF1 16 mi48 min 86°F
41117 19 mi44 min 78°F1 ft
BKBF1 37 mi48 min SSE 6 G 8 92°F 85°F
LTJF1 43 mi48 min 86°F 74°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 44 mi48 min SE 9.9 G 16 84°F 80°F1016.3 hPa
JXUF1 44 mi48 min 82°F
BLIF1 45 mi48 min SE 11 G 13 88°F 1016.4 hPa74°F
DMSF1 45 mi48 min 81°F
NFDF1 48 mi48 min ESE 8 G 8.9 90°F 1016.1 hPa

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Augustine, St. Augustine Airport, FL14 mi70 minSE 1210.00 miFair87°F71°F59%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W8SE7S7S6W6W7W7W7W5--W5W3W3W4W8W8NW7NW64SE11SE12SE12SE13
1 day agoSE10SE8SE8S6S5S6SW6SW5W6W7W6W7W5W6W9W7W76W10W9
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2 days agoSE10SE10SE9S7S7S5S8S8SW5CalmCalm--W4W3W3NW3CalmSW3E8E8E7E9SE10SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent Beach, Matanzas River, Florida
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Crescent Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:50 AM EDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:29 AM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:18 PM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:36 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.74.94.43.52.51.50.4-0.4-0.40.41.52.53.43.93.832.11.20.4-0.3-0.40.41.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for St. Augustine Beach, Florida
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St. Augustine Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:52 AM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:58 AM EDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:56 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.74.83.41.80.5-0.3-0.5-0.10.823.24.24.64.23.11.80.7-0.1-0.4-00.92.23.64.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.