Friday, June22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Butler Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 8:29PM Friday June 22, 2018 6:58 AM EDT (10:58 UTC) Moonrise 2:37PMMoonset 1:47AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 233 Am Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
Today..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday..Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming east northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 233 Am Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
Synopsis.. The region will be between high pressure to the south and troughing to the north through the weekend. Persistent westerly flow less than 15 knots keeps wave heights reduced today and overnight. The ridge begins to break down on Monday as a cold front approaches from the north. This front will cross area waters Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will build to the north/northeast during the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butler Beach, FL
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location: 29.77, -81.26     debug

Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 220749
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
349 am edt Fri jun 22 2018

Heat remains along with the chance of scattered showers and

Near term today and tonight ...

with convergent southwesterly flow across the northeastern gulf of
mexico, expecting showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to be
ongoing along the coastal areas this morning. As the Sun rises,
instabilty begins to increase across the area with the potential
for a few showers and thunderstorms across the suwannee valley.

The evolution into the afternoon hours remains somewhat uncertain,
but early indications are that the overall coverage of
thunderstorms will be limited, especially for most of SE georgia.

With troughing to the north and the strong ridge remaining to the
south, forecast soundings show deep westerly flow from the surface
to 300 mb. This will keep showers and thunderstorms moving
eastward at 10-20 mph. The uncertainty for this afternoon
originates from the lack of widespread development by the
convective allowing forecast models. It would be expected that as
the showers and thunderstorms across western zones move eastward
during the afternoon, more instability would be available for
further development. Upper level ridge remains over the area so
the atmospheric column remains very warm with weak lapse rates
with height. Additionally, and perhaps one of the biggest factors
is the persistent and slightly stronger westerly flow that will
keep the east coast sea- breeze from moving inland. This prevents
an important boundary collision that has prompted widespread
activity the last couple of days across the i-95 corridor. Lastly,
forecast soundings show batches of dry air moving in from the
west, which will limit updrafts due to the entrainment of dry air.

With these factors in mind, decided to lean toward the lower
coverage overall today. The best chance for development will be
focused along surface boundary collisions along i-10 and
southward. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s, along with dewpoint
temperatures in the 70, once again push heat indices into the
100-106 degree range for several hours today. With westerly flow,
these conditions will be experienced at the beaches as well.

Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms diminish quickly with the
best chance for lingering activity across extreme southeast zones
where the sea-breeze could advance further inland with weaker
westerly flow. Plentiful low level moisture remains in place so
low temperatures persist in the mid to upper 70s overnight.

Short term Saturday-Sunday night
Lower pcpn chances are expected this weekend as sfc trof continues
over the SE us while sfc high pressure ridge remains to the south
of NE fl. This will keep a westerly steering flow across the
region and will keep the atlc coast sea breeze pinned near the
coast. This will also continue hot temps well into the lower to
middle 90s each day with heat indices around 105 degrees, likely
just below heat advisory criteria. On Saturday expect widely
scattered storms to break out in the afternoon as isolated
showers storms reach the pinned atlc coast sea breeze near the
coast and increase in coverage and intensity. High pressure aloft
and some drier airmass pushes in behind trof aloft into SE ga
limiting convection to less than 20% coverage on Sunday with hot
temps, while slightly weaker westerly flow on Sunday across NE fl
will allow for some sea breeze penetration from both coasts and
widely scattered storms during the afternoon hours with slower
movement than Saturday.

Long term Monday-Thursday
Higher pcpn chances are expected Monday through Wednesday as cold
front approaches from the north on Monday and crosses the region
on Tuesday and slowly washes out over the fl peninsula on
Wednesday. Moisture levels will increase as precip water amounts
(pwats) push back close to 2 inches or higher the cold frontal
passage. This will lead to at least numerous showers and storms in
this period. MAX temps still hot in the lower middle 90s on
Monday ahead of the frontal passage with heat indices still near
105 degrees, then closer to climo values around 90 degrees with
the frontal passage and development of onshore atlc flow on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Slightly drier airmass pushes into the
region following the front on Thursday with a return to more
normal scattered convection and temps back into the lower 90s
inland and atlc coast sea breeze pushing well inland in the
lingering onshore flow.

Vfr conditions prevail early in the day as westerly southwesterly
flow dominates the area. Expecting showers and thunderstorms again
today, but with dry air present aloft, more scattered to isolated
coverage is expected. Only have vcts for NE florida TAF sites.

Sgj will observe an east-coast sea breeze during the afternoon,
but with westerly flow around 10 knots, expecting the boundary to
stick close to the coast. Showers and thunderstorms diminish after
sunset with light westerly flow andVFR conditions prevailing

Synoptic pattern remains the same with surface high pressure to
the south and low pressure to the north, resulting in westerly to
southerly flow at less than 15 knots. With the offshore flow,
surf heights remain low along with the risk of rip currents. Dry
air aloft will reduce the overall coverage of showers and
thunderstorms today, but a slight chance remains for the waters.

Rip currents: low risk of rip currents at area beaches.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 94 75 95 74 20 10 20 10
ssi 90 78 92 77 30 10 30 10
jax 93 76 96 74 30 10 30 20
sgj 91 77 93 75 30 10 30 10
gnv 91 75 94 73 30 10 20 0
ocf 90 76 92 73 30 20 30 0

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Mcginnis hess

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 6 mi59 min WSW 8 G 9.9 79°F 79°F1013 hPa (+1.1)
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 8 mi74 min WSW 1.9 78°F 1015 hPa77°F
RCYF1 16 mi41 min 84°F
41117 19 mi37 min 81°F2 ft
LTJF1 43 mi41 min 80°F 75°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 44 mi41 min W 9.9 G 14 80°F 82°F1013.2 hPa
BLIF1 45 mi41 min W 6 G 9.9 80°F 1013.8 hPa80°F
DMSF1 45 mi41 min 85°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL14 mi63 minW 710.00 miFair79°F0°F%1013 hPa

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW5SW6SW6W4NW6CalmE7E5SE10SW16
1 day agoSW4SW6SW9SW8SW9SW74SW7SE12NW7
2 days agoSW4S6S7SW633SE13SE13SE15SE16SE13NW5CalmSE3W5SW3CalmS4SW6S4SW4SW4SW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent Beach, Matanzas River, Florida
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Crescent Beach
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Fri -- 02:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:24 AM EDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:51 AM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:04 PM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for St. Augustine Beach, Florida
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St. Augustine Beach
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Fri -- 02:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:15 AM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:26 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:58 PM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:08 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.