Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 4:53 AM   Moonset 6:46 PM

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GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 311 Pm Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Lake waters choppy. Tuesday - South winds around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Lake waters light chop. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Lake waters light chop. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters choppy. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters choppy. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters rough. Thursday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Lake waters rough. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - North winds around 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Friday night - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Saturday - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Lake waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 311 Pm Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet will prevail for much of the upcoming week. No precipitation is expected over the coastal waters until Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with the passage of a cold front. Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday through the weekend.

FXUS64 KLCH 070342 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1042 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Low pressure is over plains this afternoon while a ridge is over the Atlantic. Between these features, a southerly flow is keeping gulf moisture in place locally. Even with ample moisture in place, a lack of an upper disturbance and a more stable air mass has allowed for a less active day across the region, finally.
With that said, a few showers and storms will still be possible through the afternoon with daytime heating, and mainly from Cen LA through the SE TX Lake.

The warm and humid air mass that is in place will linger through the short term. Low temperatures will run around 10 degrees above normal with highs around 5 above climo averages. Rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday will be nearly nil. Conditions will be breezy Tuesday and Wed afternoons with the pressure gradient tightening a bit from Monday.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A cold front will be poised on our doorstep by Thursday morning.
Moisture will continue to increase in advance of the front, with showers and storms developing near the boundary, aided by passing disturbances aloft. The front will sag through the area late Thursday into early Friday, with convection spreading south over the area. The best chances are expected across our northern zones, from the Lakes region into central LA. General rainfall amounts are expected to remain below an inch, and at this time, forecast soundings show enough dry air within the column and sufficient storm motions to preclude a potential heavy rain threat. However, there does appear a non-zero risk for some strong to severe storms, mainly from late afternoon into the evening Thursday as soundings depict steep midlevel lapse rates, decent deep layer shear and considerable (mainly elevated) CAPEs.

The front will finally push through the area and off the coast by Friday morning, with high pressure beginning to build over the region in its wake. This will bring a nice airmass contrast after some very warm and humid days, with highs in the lower 80s and lows down to around 60 north and in the lower 60s south. Meanwhile, dewpoints will fall from the low to middle 70s on Thursday to the upper 50s to lower 60s by Friday.

The surface high is expected to slide east across the region into the weekend, maintaining the generally seasonal temperatures.
Global models depict a somewhat active west to southwest flow persisting over the region along with the potential for some low end PoPs/QPF through the weekend, but none of the operational models align regarding timing/placement of individual features.
The National Blend continues to advertise dry conditions inland, with just some low PoPs over the coastal waters Saturday and Sunday.

24

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR/IFR overnight into Tuesday morning with breezy winds as well.

On Tuesday, CIGs will struggle to lift/break up with MVFR or even IFR through much of the afternoon. There could be some brief breaks to VFR during the afternoon, however confidence is low. SFC winds will remain breezy through the day.

MARINE
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The onshore flow will remain in place into Friday. The pressure gradient will tighten somewhat into Tuesday and Wednesday with winds nearing 20 kts in the gulf waters by Wed PM.

A cold front will approach the region late in the week with winds relaxing as this occurs. The front will move offshore Friday with a period of offshore winds expected into Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 71 87 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 74 84 73 86 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 75 87 75 89 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 73 87 74 87 / 10 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Calcasieu Pass
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Tue -- 03:38 AM CDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:53 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:25 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:37 AM CDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:24 PM CDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:46 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:10 PM CDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana, Tide feet

Mermentau River entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:35 AM CDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:52 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:24 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:06 AM CDT     2.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:42 PM CDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:45 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:23 PM CDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mermentau River entrance, Louisiana, Tide feet

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