Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Arthur, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:21PM Thursday June 21, 2018 3:15 AM CDT (08:15 UTC) Moonrise 1:33PMMoonset 1:03AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 1000 Pm Cdt Wed Jun 20 2018
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers through the day.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Saturday night..South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 1000 Pm Cdt Wed Jun 20 2018
Synopsis.. Winds and seas will gradually decrease through the evening and Thursday as the northwest gulf pressure gradient continues to relax. Scattered showers and a few Thunderstorms will continue tomorrow before coming to an end Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Arthur, TX
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location: 29.77, -93.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 210430
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
1130 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018

Aviation Showers and storms continue this evening with lower
vis and ceilings in and near convection. Precip chances remain
higher along highway 165 and to the west. Winds will be generally
light and south to SW through the period, although some storms may
produce brief gusty conditions.

Prev discussion issued 1006 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018
update...

per coordination with the weather prediction center, remnant mcv
over SE tx will enhance precipitation potential in a already
saturated and unstable airmass with pw's over 2". Have increased
areal rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches with the possibility
of 3 to 5 inches in isolated locations across the flood watch
areas of southeast texas including jefferson, orange, southern
jasper & newton counties. Updated forecast and flood watch has
been sent.

Dml
prev discussion... Issued 828 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018
discussion...

wx map shows weak high pressure over the SE u.S. This evening,
keeping a moist southeast flow off the gulf. Not much sfc
reflection of the large trough over coastal tx and N mexico.

However, weak cyclonic rotation continues roughly between 925mb-500mb
across S tx that's keeping excellent lift, coupled with pw's over
2" (2.13" at 00z lch sounding), to provide copious amounts of
rainfall where the training convective band sets up. One such band
is continuing to slowly move east across SE tx, mainly northwest
of beaumont orange at this hour. This will continue to feed off of
the moist and unstable air over our region this evening and
overnight. Latest hrrr guidance shows this will likely move
further east into western louisiana and unfortunately, over the
remainder of southeast texas this evening and overnight. At this
time, looks like rainfall totals of 1" to possibly 2" band could
stay northwest of beaumont orange area, but even the additional
rainfall of 0.5 to possibly 1.0" expected this evening and
overnight could result in drainage problems as the ground remains
absolutely saturated. Flood watch will continue for the hardest
hit counties of jefferson, orange, and southern jasper & newton
through 7 am.

Dml
prev discussion... Issued 613 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018
aviation... Showers and storms can be expected in the area through
the period, however coverage will be higher near kbpt. Lower
ceilings can also be expected overnight and lower vis may occur in
precip. Winds will be south to SW at or less than 10 kts.

Prev discussion... Issued 441 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018
discussion...

short term... Tonight and Thursday...

regional radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly across southeast tx and central la. Much of this
activity should continue through the afternoon and into this
evening. Latest hires guidance continues to push a band of heavier
rain eastward into southeast texas late tonight, though there is
still some uncertainty as to when this will move into our area and
what rainfall totals we can expect. Eventually, these showers
should spread into southwest louisiana and across the area during
the day on Thursday.

After the last several days of heavy rain across southeast texas,
rfc flash flooding thresholds are still rather low at 2"-3" over
three hours and 3"-4" over six hours. While "official" forecast
totals through tonight are expected to be around or less than one
inch, 12z href guidance indicates the potential for more robust
convection to produce rainfall amounts that will approach flash
flood guidance. Additionally, guidance has preformed poorly over
the past several days with regards to the placement of convective
bands and rainfall amounts. The axis of steadier precipitation is
expected to shift northeast from central texas during the
overnight hours and any additional heavy rain received overnight
across southeast texas has the potential to produce local flash of
preci flooding. Therefore, it was decided to lean on the side of
caution and extend the flash flood watch through Thursday morning
for southeast texas. Further east across western calcasieu and
cameron parishes, flash flood guidance is running higher and the
likelihood of precipitation exceeding said guidance is lower
resulting in the watch being cancelled.

Rackley
long term... Friday through Tuesday...

the upper level low contributing to the heavy rainfall over the
past several days is expected to become integrated with a upper
level trough Thursday with the trough axis shifting east of the
region during the day Friday. The combination of the exiting
trough, the upper level high over the western atlantic expanding
into the eastern gulf, and height rises in advance of a digging
shortwave trough from the pacific northwest will result in weak
ridging across the ms valley through the weekend into early next
week. This will contribute to decreasing deep layer moisture with
forecast pwat values of less than 1.5" Friday through Sunday. This
will result in drier conditions and warmer conditions through
Sunday.

Early next week, the digging pacific shortwave and upper level
ridge will result in a more favorable pattern for return flow and
deep layer moisture will begin to rebound to climatological values
for late june. This will result in a return of the typical diurnal
convection beginning on Monday and continuing through the middle
of the week.

26
marine...

winds and seas will gradually decrease through the evening and
Thursday as the northwest gulf pressure gradient continues to
relax. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue
tomorrow before coming to an end Friday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 75 87 74 94 80 60 10 20
lch 77 85 77 91 80 50 10 20
lft 77 85 76 92 20 40 10 20
bpt 77 86 76 91 80 50 10 20

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... Flash flood watch until 7 am cdt Thursday for txz215-216-261-262.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 05


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 3 mi46 min ESE 5.1 G 6 79°F 85°F1013.3 hPa
TXPT2 6 mi46 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 79°F 81°F1011.2 hPa
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 7 mi46 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 82°F1012.1 hPa
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 9 mi76 min SSE 7 G 9.9 79°F 1012.3 hPa (-0.5)
KVBS 24 mi181 min Calm -40°F
HIST2 29 mi46 min S 1.9 G 4.1 79°F 82°F1011.8 hPa
CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA 30 mi46 min SW 1 G 1.9 79°F 82°F1011.3 hPa
KCVW 32 mi31 min S 11 82°F 79°F
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 37 mi46 min S 8.9 G 13 81°F 80°F1011.4 hPa
BKTL1 43 mi46 min 85°F
LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA 48 mi46 min 76°F 84°F1011.7 hPa

Wind History for Sabine Pass North, TX
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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SE12
G15
SE16
SE12
G15
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G18
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G16
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G17
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G19
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G20
SE19
S7
G12
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G16
SE11
G15
SE12
S9
G13
NW4
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E5
E4
SE4
1 day
ago
E12
G15
S10
G18
NE10
G13
SE8
G16
SE15
G20
N4
W2
G7
E15
G19
S7
G11
S8
SE8
G11
SE11
G15
E9
SE8
SE11
G14
SE10
G13
SE8
SE8
G11
SE16
SE18
G22
S9
G12
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G14
S11
G14
SE12
2 days
ago
SE17
G22
SE25
SE18
G23
SE15
S7
G10
SE19
SE18
G26
SE16
G21
E20
G26
E23
G28
--
SE19
SE13
G17
SE22
G28
SE26
G32
SE16
G22
SE20
SE20
SE22
G29
SE21
SE19
G23
SE13
G16
SE13
G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaumont/Port Arthur Southeast Texas Regional Airport, TX14 mi23 minE 39.00 miFair76°F73°F94%1011.6 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, TX21 mi21 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F75°F100%1012.5 hPa
SABINE 13B OIL PLATFORM, LA24 mi36 minVar 3 G 1110.00 miFair-40°F0°F%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from BPT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10SE9SE10SE9E7SE11SE14SE12SE12SE13
G20
SE14SE12
G20
SE13SE14
G22
SE3SE10
G18
SE7SE6S15--E7E4SE4E3
1 day agoE12
G19
SE12
G18
E13
G24
SE12
G26
SE12
G22
E9SE13
G19
S4CalmSE7SE11SE13
G23
E11E10E7
G16
E7E10E7E7SE8SE9
G19
SE12S15SE12
2 days agoSE14
G31
SE14SE13SE14S10SE13
G28
S5E12
G19
SE20
G30
E16
G24
E13S10
G25
SE5E13
G20
SE16
G24
E18
G23
SE14
G24
SE13SE17
G24
SE13
G22
SE13SE10
G19
SE7E7

Tide / Current Tables for Mesquite Point, Sabine Pass, Texas
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Mesquite Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:02 AM CDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:32 AM CDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:02 PM CDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:32 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:40 PM CDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
110.90.80.70.60.60.70.80.911.11.21.110.80.60.50.40.40.40.50.70.8

Tide / Current Tables for Sabine Naches Canal, Port Arthur, Texas
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Sabine Naches Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:56 AM CDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:04 PM CDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:32 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:17 PM CDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.90.80.80.70.60.60.60.60.60.70.90.9110.90.80.60.50.40.40.40.50.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.