Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 2:51 PM   Moonset 2:31 AM

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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 300 Pm Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - South winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Patchy fog after midnight. Sunday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Lake waters smooth. Patchy fog in the morning. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Monday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Tuesday - South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.

GMZ400 300 Pm Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Scattered showers and Thunderstorms 40 to 60 nautical miles south of atchafalaya bay will continue to diminish this evening. Light onshore flow and low seas expected through Monday with no precipitation. Winds and seas expected to increase Tuesday through Thursday due to the pressure gradient increasing between surface high to the east and low pressure across the plains.

FXUS64 KLCH 182015 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 315 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)

Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge over the region, with light and variable to calm winds noted across the area. An exiting mid to upper level trough to our east has ended all the precipitation areawide, except for a sliver of the far coastal waters where scattered thunderstorms continue. This will gradually clear out this evening. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s areawide, with temperatures near 90 over Southeast Texas still possible this afternoon.

For tonight, clear skies expected with nearly calm winds. This coupled with the moist ground from the recent rainfall, areas of fog quite likely, with the possibility being dense towards daybreak.
The highest likelihood of this occurring will be across Southeast Texas and Western Louisiana along and north of I-10. Short term guidance still in question on areal extent of this and duration.
Due to this, holding off on a Dense Fog Advisory at this time until trends and guidance becomes more consistent.

For Sunday through Monday night, a dry northwest flow aloft expected between the exiting mid to upper level trough to the east and a building mid to upper level ridge over Northern Mexico.
Not expecting any precipitation, but a gradual increase in temperatures. Expect overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the increased dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, maximum heat index values in the mid 90s expected each afternoon. The calendar may say spring, but summer has arrived.

08/DML

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Friday)

The start of the long range continues with relatively dry weather locally across SETX and SWLA as broad high-pressure ridging extends over Appalachia down SW across the northern Gulf of Mexico. That pattern will facilitate warm temperatures with mostly sunny skies trending into Wednesday. Meanwhile an upstream shortwave remains relatively broad with no signals of amplification to generate significant forcing down to the Gulf Coast as the associated sfc low lifts from the Midwest into the northern Great Lakes region by Wednesday night. Naturally, a the cold front becomes stationary and settles north of the ARKLATEX region by Thursday. Given the southerly wind regime, very isolated pop-up like shower / storms are not out of the question to the south of the boundary, however, they will be limited by low level subsidence / inversion layer from the ridging, now over the SECONUS and western Atlantic. Friday, the boundary lifts across the TN Valley with continued dry weather favored over SETX and SWLA amid daytime temperatures climbing into the low 90’s for many inland locations. Various forecast signals indicate this relatively drier pattern, compared to the last couple weeks, may continue into the following weekend which is congruent with the latest CPC 6-10 day climatological guidance.

Kowalski/30

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)

VFR expected this afternoon and evening with partly cloudy skies.
Southeast winds around 7-8 kts at BPT/LCH, variable at 5 kts remainder of sites. Areas of fog likely to form once again after 16z, with the lowest visibilities between 09-13z at all sites with IFR/LIFR conditions. After 14z Sunday, expect southeast winds 6-8 kts at southern terminals, variable 5 kts at AEX.

08/DML

MARINE

Scattered showers and thunderstorms 40 to 60 nautical miles south of Atchafalaya Bay will continue to diminish this evening. Light onshore flow and low seas expected through Monday with no precipitation.
Winds and seas expected to increase Tuesday through Thursday due to the pressure gradient increasing between surface high to the east and low pressure across the Plains.

08/DML

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 67 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 71 89 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 71 91 71 90 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 72 89 71 88 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Mesquite Point
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Sat -- 01:56 AM CDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:31 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM CDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:33 PM CDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:51 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:55 PM CDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
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Mesquite Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, Tide feet

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