Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayou Gauche, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:05PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 8:59 PM CST (02:59 UTC) Moonrise 2:14PMMoonset 2:24AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 316 Pm Cst Tue Dec 18 2018
Tonight..East winds near 5 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog early in the morning. Chance of showers early in the morning, then showers in the late morning and afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to near 40 knots becoming northwest 25 to 30 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 20 to 30 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Northwest winds 25 to 30 knots easing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet with occasional waves to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday and Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest late in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..North winds near 5 knots becoming east in the late evening and overnight. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 316 Pm Cst Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis..A trough axis will move through the northern gulf Wednesday and a strong cold front will move through Thursday morning. Strong high pressure will then build in for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou Gauche, LA
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location: 29.78, -90.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 182128
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
328 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018

Short term Little change from the previous forecast in terms of
timing of two different upper level features that will impact the
gulf south on Wednesday and Thursday. The first feature will be a
southern stream upper level trough ejecting out of texas and into
the lower mississippi valley tomorrow into tomorrow night. This
system will be shearing out as it moves into the region, but
enough forcing will be in place to interact with increased
moisture and elevated instability to produce widespread rain
showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the day
tomorrow and into tomorrow evening. Fortunately, surface based
convection is not expected and severe weather will not be a threat
tomorrow into tomorrow night. Temperatures will continue to run
near normal through tomorrow night with lows in the 40s and lower
50s each night and daytime highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Thursday will see the second and much stronger northern stream
trough dive into the lower mississippi valley. This feature will
drive another round of rain into the area Thursday into Thursday
night, and a significantly colder airmass will also advect in from
the north. Daytime highs on Thursday should only climb into the
middle 50s over western zones as the upper level cold pool
associated with the deepening trough moves in from the west.

Farther to the east in coastal mississippi and louisiana where
the cold pool will have less influence, highs should warm back to
normal levels in the lower 60s. The heart of the cold pool will
move through the region Thursday night, and expect to see
temperatures plunge into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Fortunately,
even with continued rain showers through much of the night,
enough warm air should remain aloft to keep any precipitation in
liquid form. By the time temperatures cool off enough to support
frozen precipitation, the available moisture will be greatly
limited due to dry air advection and increasing subsidence aloft.

The biggest concern heading into the late Thursday and Thursday
night will be strong gradient winds accompanying the upper level
trough. Winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts could impact areas
south of the lake pontchartrain, and wind advisory will likely be
needed at that time.

Long term Strong negative vorticity advection on the back side
of the departing upper level trough will take hold of the region
on Friday. Rapidly clearing skies, low humidity, and windy
conditions can be expected throughout the day. Temperatures will
also be colder than average as a lingering thermal trough and cold
air advection persists over the region. Highs should only climb
into the lower to middle 50s.

A largely zonal flow pattern in the mid and upper level will
develop by Saturday and remain in place across the gulf south
through next Tuesday. A series of weak upper level shortwave
troughs will pass north of the forecast area during this period,
but no significant weather impacts are expected across the region.

At most, some passing high to mid-level clouds will accompany
these weak shortwave features. Otherwise, a very benign and
pleasant weather regime will take hold through the extended
holiday weekend. After a chilly start in the 30s Saturday morning,
temperatures will quickly warm back to more seasonal readings in
the lower to middle 60s. The lack of cold or warm air advection
across the region the remainder of the forecast period will result
in continued near normal temperatures through Tuesday. Lows will
cool into the 40s and lower 50s each night, and highs will climb
into the 60s and lower 70s each day.

Aviation All terminals are back inVFR status for now but expect
another round of MVFR ifr conditions early tomorrow morning for a
few sites. Lifr can not be ruled out at btr. Widespread fog may not
be as big an issue tonight as this morning but am expecting another
round of light to moderate fog for all terminals along and west of
the 55 corridor. Low CIGS could also impact btr and mcb where fog
could be the greatest. Even after sunrise conditions don't look to
drastically improve as showers and maybe a few thunderstorms move
into the area possibly as early as mid morning tomorrow. Much of the
area will likely be dealing with convection at least through the
day. Cab

Marine Benign conditions remain over the coastal waters
tonight but on Wednesday things will begin to pick up. High pressure
will be east of the area and onshore flow will begin to increase
through the day. Scs headlines may be needed for the outer waters
tomorrow. As we head into Thursday conditions will go downhill
quickly. Cold front moves through Thursday and winds will veer
around to west and then northwest. CAA will quickly cause winds to
increase with scy conditions expected over most if not all of the
waters by Thursday afternoon. By Thursday evening as the sfc low
rapidly deepens the pressure gradient will tighten across the region
and combined with strong CAA winds will ramp up significantly and
there is a good chance that all of the open waters will experience
gale conditions with gusts near 50 knots in the outer waters south
of la. Conditions will be high end scy elsewhere including the tidal
lakes. Seas will obviously respond as well with occasional seas
greater than 20 feet in the outer waters. Conditions will begin to
ease Friday night with far more tolerable conditions through the
weekend. Cab

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 43 61 49 57 0 90 90 70
btr 47 62 49 57 0 100 50 70
asd 44 64 52 60 0 100 80 60
msy 52 64 54 60 0 100 50 60
gpt 48 63 54 62 0 100 100 60
pql 42 65 51 64 0 100 100 60

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

32


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 1 mi60 min Calm G 1.9 54°F 56°F1018.3 hPa (+0.0)
CARL1 18 mi60 min 45°F
FREL1 23 mi60 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 1017.3 hPa (-0.0)
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 24 mi60 min Calm G 1.9 56°F 56°F1018.3 hPa (-0.0)
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 40 mi60 min ESE 5.1 G 6 55°F 58°F1018.6 hPa (-0.3)
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 43 mi60 min E 7 G 8.9 57°F 67°F1018.5 hPa (-0.0)
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 44 mi60 min ESE 1 G 1 56°F 47°F1018.2 hPa (-0.0)
KXPY 47 mi45 min NE 5.1 59°F 55°F

Wind History for West Bank 1, Bayou Gauche, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA16 mi67 minE 310.00 miOvercast58°F50°F75%1018.7 hPa
Houma-Terrebonne Airport, LA19 mi65 minESE 510.00 miFair54°F49°F85%1017.9 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA21 mi65 minN 010.00 miOvercast52°F51°F97%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from MSY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4NE5NE43N5NE3NE6CalmE3E5E3
1 day agoN4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmNW34NW4CalmCalm3N3CalmCalmSW3Calm
2 days agoNW7NW6NW7NW7NW6N4NW6NW4NW4N6N4N4N6N5NE5NE6NE65N4N3NW3NW4CalmNW3

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:30 AM CST     0.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:22 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:49 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:25 AM CST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:11 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:02 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.60.60.50.40.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.20.30.30.40.50.60.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Manilla
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:22 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:48 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:41 AM CST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:12 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:04 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:04 PM CST     0.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.40.30.20.10.10.1000.10.10.10.20.20.30.40.40.50.60.70.70.70.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.