Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayou Gauche, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:18PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 2:10 AM CDT (07:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:10AMMoonset 8:14PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1025 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the late evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1025 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will remain centered over the eastern gulf through Wednesday. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will impact the waters on Thursday. High pressure is expected to build back over the area by Friday. The high should be east of the area by Saturday. Another low pressure system should then impact the coastal waters on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou Gauche, LA
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location: 29.78, -90.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 290459
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1159 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Aviation
Transition from mostlyVFR to mostly MVFR with some spotty tempo
ifr, mainly due to cigs, will occur overnight into early Wednesday
morning before improvement back toVFR late Wednesday morning.

Lower conditions are expected to return Wednesday evening as lower
level clouds develop. 22/td

Prev discussion /issued 414 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017/
discussion... Due to being backed up today and down much of the
afternoon this discussion will be a little abbreviated and will
mainly focus on the system Thursday. As expected today was rather
quiet and warm. Maybe one or two showers over jackson county ms
but that was about it.

Tonight through Wed evening we will be dominated by a ridge sliding
to the east. This will keep things quiet and warm. Biggest weather
impact could be some fog tomorrow morning however winds look like
they should remain strong enough just off the deck to promote
stratus and not much in the way of fog.

Early Thu morning and possibly into the evng hrs could be quite
active. There could actually be 2 rounds although the first round if
it does reach the region will likely be right at the end of its
cycle. The main activity looks to take place late Thu morning and
through the day.

We are still anticipating a deep system to work across the plains
and into the mid ms valley thu. Not much has changed in the
thinking. A lot of ingredients appear to be coming together but
there is still one or two significant issues that could keep things
from materializing. There will still be a split jet over or near the
region with a very impressive diffluent pattern. If we are not
contaminated from the previous days/nights activity that tries to
move in there will be more than sufficient instability to work with
and the mid lvl lapse rates continue to look extremely steep right
around 7-8 c/km. No shortage of forcing with the possibility of a
lead s/w or even the main trough going neutral to negative close to
the region.

The biggest question is still placement of the best divergence
aloft. If it is over the region and we destabilize like many of the
mdls have been showing then we could see rapid to explosive
thunderstorm development during the late morning through the
afternoon and possibly into the evng hrs. Large hail could be a
significant concern with damaging winds and tornadoes also possible.

If the placement of the divergence is over the coastal waters we
would likely see some sort of MCS develop along the coast or even
just off of it in the gulf. This would effectively cut the area off
and keep things far quieter. The other issue is left over
convection/debris from expected severe weather from Wed and Wed night
off to our west that tries to push in. If it makes a greater push
east as it dies it will not allow the region to destabilize as
fast/much however given the dynamics in place we will still likely
see severe weather just not at the level of what we could see if the
upper jets line up.

We are currently in a slight risk over the entire area but if the
mdls get into better agreement with a few features we could easily
see a portion of the area upgraded.

Activity should quickly diminish Thu night as a cold front swings
through and then we will be quiet Fri and sat. Models really begin
to diverge Sunday and more so as we head into next week. That said
the pattern is very active and at some point b/t late Sun and
through Tue we will likely see quite a bit of showers and
thunderstorms activity with all modes of severe weather possible
including heavy rain. So once we get through Thu all eyes will
move to this system. /cab/
aviation...VFR conditions will persist through 06z for most of the
terminals. Some MVFR ceilings may develop around 03z at kgpt. After
06z, the development of another low level inversion will once again
allow ceilings to drop to between 300 and 800 feet at all of the
terminals. As ceilings drop, visibilities will fall to between 3
and 5 miles at most locations. However, khdc and kmcb could see
visibilities fall to around 1 mile. Not expecting as much reduced
visibilities as the last few nights due to a bit more boundary layer
mixing through the night. Conditions will begin to improve from
lifr/ifr to MVFR after 15z as daytime heating mixes out the
inversion. 32
marine... The pressure gradient over the gulf will begin to increase
tonight in advance of an approaching low pressure system. Have
raised exercise caution flags for the western waters as winds
increase to 15 to 20 knots later tonight. These exercise caution
conditions should overspread the remaining gulf waters by Wednesday
night and then persist through Thursday night. Seas should increase
to between 4 and 6 feet during this period. Conditions could
increase into small craft advisory range for brief period of time.

In the wake of the low, winds will turn more westerly and also
decrease to around 10 knots on Friday as high pressure moves across
the gulf south. The high will shift to the east of the region by
Saturday allowing winds to veer back to the southeast and increase
to 10 to 15 knots. As another low approaches from the west Saturday
night and Sunday, onshore flow should increase back into exercise
caution range of 15 to 20 knots. 32
decision support...

dss code... Blue.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... Monitoring severe weather potential on Thursday
decision support service (dss) code legend:
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk of severe weather;
nearby tropical events, hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe weather; direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 65 85 66 81 / 10 10 20 70
btr 65 87 67 79 / 10 10 40 80
asd 66 84 66 80 / 10 0 10 70
msy 69 85 69 80 / 10 10 10 70
gpt 68 81 66 79 / 10 10 10 70
pql 64 82 65 80 / 10 0 10 60

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 1 mi41 min SE 5.1 G 7 71°F 76°F1013.3 hPa
CARL1 18 mi41 min 58°F
FREL1 23 mi41 min SSE 6 G 7 72°F 1012.2 hPa70°F
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 24 mi41 min S 4.1 G 8 73°F 73°F1013.4 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 40 mi41 min SSE 8 G 12 72°F 76°F1013.9 hPa
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 43 mi41 min SSE 7 G 12 73°F 76°F1013.3 hPa
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 44 mi41 min SSE 6 G 8.9 71°F 62°F1012.4 hPa
KXPY 47 mi36 min SSE 7 G 12 73°F 68°F

Wind History for West Bank 1, Bayou Gauche, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA16 mi18 minSE 79.00 miFair70°F68°F93%1013.5 hPa
Houma-Terrebonne, LA19 mi16 minSE 87.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F68°F89%1012.9 hPa
New Orleans, Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA21 mi16 minS 510.00 miFair0°F0°F%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from MSY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S4S3CalmCalmCalmSE3S6S7S8SE7S11S10S11S10S12S10SE8SE8SE8SE8SE8SE8SE7
1 day agoS6S6S6S6S5S7S10S11
G19
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2 days agoS5S3CalmS3CalmCalmSW3S6W3SE5S8S10S11S13S12
G18
SE13
G20
S10SE9SE8SE9SE7SE8SE7SE10

Tide / Current Tables for West Bank 1, Bayou Gauche, Louisiana
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West Bank 1
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:14 AM CDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:00 AM CDT     0.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:09 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:23 AM CDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:33 PM CDT     0.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:18 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.10.10.10.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for East Bank 1, Norco, Bayou Labranche, Louisiana
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East Bank 1
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:41 AM CDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM CDT     0.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:51 AM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:09 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:06 AM CDT     0.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:45 AM CDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:18 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:21 PM CDT     0.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:21 PM CDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:14 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:17 PM CDT     0.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.