Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 8:05 AM   Moonset 11:01 PM

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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 312 Am Cdt Sat May 11 2024
Today - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late. Bay waters choppy. Tonight - East winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters rough. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Thunderstorms likely. Showers likely. Tuesday - West winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Bay waters light chop. Wednesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers.Wednesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 312 Am Cdt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis - Moderate offshore flow this morning will gradually diminish and shift more east to southeast through the day. Onshore flow will become better established on Sunday as surface high pressure moves off to the east, and strengthen with lower pressure developing over the plains. Onshore flow will persist through midweek until passage of a cold front. Shower and Thunderstorm chances will increase tonight into Sunday, with off and on rain chances expected through midweek.

FXUS64 KLCH 110419 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1119 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 858 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

High level cloudiness will be moving across the forecast area tonight is the only type of clouds expected. Dewpoints are in the 60s so it should feel less humid with low temperatures a little closer to seasonal. Current forecast is on track and no changes at this time.

Rua

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the cool front which passed the area earlier this morning now southeast of the forecast area, extending from an area of low pressure near KMOB to the nwrn Gulf.
Meanwhile, high pressure centered over the Rockies/srn Plains was building sewd over the region, with obs showing a mainly nrly/nerly low-level flow. The airmass associated with the building high is definitely drier as dewpoints have dropped 10-15 degrees in 24 hours. Water vapor imagery shows the troffing associated with the sfc front and last night's severe weather now well to our east with weak ridging building overhead and to our west. Regional 88Ds show a few showers/storms associated with an approaching disturbance still off to our west, but the drier air noted in this morning's KLCH sounding was winning out as earlier activity never made it close to the area.

The bulk of the short-term remains dry again this afternoon as the weak ridging aloft and encroaching sfc high pressure control our area weather through Saturday. Cooler temps are in store for tonight with lows back in the much more seasonal 60s for all but the immediate coastline. Despite highs again the 80s for Saturday, dewpoints in the 50s will make it feel much more pleasant.

Rain chances return to the forecast on Sunday as a shortwave is progged to cut off over the srn Rockies, while sfc high pressure pushes east of the forecast area and ushers in a moister srly flow off the Gulf. With forecast soundings indicating mean RH values rising to around 90 percent and PWAT values climbing to around 2.0 inches (well above the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climo), scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through the day Sunday and linger through Sunday night.
Although forecasted rainfall amounts during this period aren't overly scary, given the antecedent conditions from the recent constant periods of (sometimes heavy) rainfall, WPC is highlighting all but the sern zones in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for day 3 (marginal risk for the sern zones).

25

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Trending into the long term starting at the beginning of the upcoming work week, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is present across the entire watch area Monday into Tuesday AM. Synoptically, a shortwave and associated precipitation will continue to progress from the central Plains toward the Ohio Valley with notable forcing along the cold front to realize thunderstorm activity across portions of SETX and SWLA. Then an all too familiar scenario of an unsettled wet pattern comes into mind yet again. Low level subsidence builds behind the front by Tuesday evening and persists with more zonal upper level flow aloft through early AM Thursday.
Hereafter, the next system begins to take shape out west near the Four Corners region. Global models are split on the evolution of the shortwave, but more importantly, there is great disconnect from the deepening downstream surface low developing on the Plains late Thursday. Meanwhile, upstream flow higher aloft (around 250mb heights) detaches vertical continuity and amplifies the trough from the Great Lakes to California. Thus, while pops are reintroduced toward the end of the forecast period, confidence is not strong to detail any potential hazards when considering the number of variances among deterministic forecast guidance with the National Blend of Models. However, what is understood, are the signals for a continued opportunity to have precipitation enter SETX and SWLA toward the end of the work week once again.

Kowalski/30

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

No changes to the thinking as far as the aviation goes tonight.
High pressure at the surface will be moving across the forecast area through tomorrow with mainly light northeast winds overnight becoming more easterly on Saturday. The easterly winds will be a little bit stronger and more gusty on Saturday for KBPT and KLCH.
The northeast flow will bring in drier air in the low levels with just high level cloudiness moving overhead. Therefore, VFR conditions are expected during the period.

Rua

MARINE
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Inserting caution headlines for the wrn/cntl coastal waters for late tonight and part of tomorrow as nerly winds increase to criteria.
Winds could briefly touch advisory criteria, but not sure for how long if it even happens.

Winds are expected to shift serly and increase again on Sunday as the gradient over the nwrn Gulf tightens...SCA conditions are expected at that time.

25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 62 83 63 77 / 0 0 10 40 LCH 66 85 68 82 / 0 10 10 50 LFT 67 87 68 85 / 0 10 10 30 BPT 67 86 69 83 / 0 10 10 60

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Cypremort Point
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Sat -- 04:01 AM CDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:04 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:58 PM CDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:43 PM CDT     1.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 PM CDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM CDT     Sunset
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Cypremort Point, Louisiana, Tide feet

Weeks Bay
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Sat -- 03:20 AM CDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:03 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:48 AM CDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM CDT     Sunset
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Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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