Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Woodmere, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:39PM Thursday August 17, 2017 12:33 PM CDT (17:33 UTC) Moonrise 1:09AMMoonset 3:13PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 939 Am Cdt Thu Aug 17 2017
Rest of today..West winds near 5 knots becoming south late in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds near 5 knots becoming southeast in the late morning and afternoon. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 939 Am Cdt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to dominate the gulf of mexico into next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woodmere, LA
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location: 29.82, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 171313
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
813 am cdt Thu aug 17 2017

Sounding discussion...

several differences in the sounding this morning from the past
few days. Influence from an upper high that moved in from the east
overnight has dried the profile and developed a bit of a
subsidence inversion in the 925 to 850 mb layer. Pw is down to
near average at 1.84 inches. This will significantly reduce rain
coverage today, though isolated storms are still possible late
this afternoon. The dry air layer centered around 850 mb may help
enhance downbursts from any storms that go up, so localized gusty
winds are possible. The heat today will result in plenty of
conditional instability with most unstable CAPE about 3000 j kg.

Winds are southwest through 500 mb and southerly aloft.

Krautmann

Prev discussion issued 332 am cdt Thu aug 17 2017
short term...

upper level analysis shows a somewhat weak ridge centered over
the northeastern gulf of mexico while a trough races northeast
across the upper mississippi river valley towards canada.

Subsidence from the high pressure aloft will limit convective
coverage today compared to previous days. Used a blend of hrrr and
gfs QPF output for pops today. Fewer storms in general, means
more opportunity to warm closer to the mid 90s. 75-78 dewpoints in
place this afternoon combined with those MAX temps will yield
heat indicies 108-110. Thus will continue previous issuance of the
heat advisory. The hottest areas will likely be along a new
orleans to baton rouge line, coincident with slightly higher
moisture along the mississippi river.

Long term...

a return to a more typical wet mid august pattern is expected over
the weekend. As the previously mentioned trough moves into canada
near the great lakes, a secondary trough will dip out of canada into
the northern plains. This feature will track on a more west to east
direction, which will suppress the ridge that is currently close to
the cwa. Reducing local subsidence while strong daytime heating
persists will allow for numerous showers and thunderstorms to
develop Saturday and Sunday. Coverage should easily be in the 50 to
70% range. The presence of slight NW flow means there could be a
isolated strong storm or 2 in the afternoon hours.

An upper ridge building from az to tx will try to extend towards the
cwa during the first half of next week. Its possible that it will
push close enough to the area to bring down pops, especially in
western portions of the forecast area. For now, kept the long term
rain chances similar to the previous.

Meffer
aviation...VFR conditions expected through this TAF cycle.

Thunderstorm probabilities are not high enough to include for any
site until Friday.

Marine... High pressure will remain in place with diurnal
fluctuations being the main driver of winds. With most nights look
for a weak enhanced jet over the waters east of the ms delta where
winds could bump up to 10-15 knots at times. Seas will remain in the
2-3 ft range or less.

Dss code: yellow.

Deployed: nohsep.

Activation: none.

Activities: dss support for nohsep; monitoring convective trends
river flooding; and heat advisory.

Decision support services (dss) code legend green = no weather
impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = high impacts; slight to
moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; hazmat or
other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 92 75 90 74 20 10 50 20
btr 94 76 92 76 20 10 30 20
asd 93 77 92 77 20 10 40 20
msy 94 78 92 78 30 10 20 20
gpt 93 77 91 78 20 10 40 30
pql 93 76 92 76 20 10 50 40

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Heat advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for laz034>037-039-040-
046>050-056>072.

Gm... None.

Ms... Heat advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for msz068>071-077-
080>082.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CARL1 9 mi45 min 84°F
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 15 mi45 min WNW 1.9 G 5.1 89°F 85°F1019 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 19 mi45 min W 2.9 G 7 87°F 86°F1019.3 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 21 mi45 min SW 4.1 G 8.9 88°F 89°F1019.5 hPa
FREL1 28 mi45 min SW 5.1 G 9.9 90°F 1018.3 hPa76°F
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 39 mi45 min S 5.1 G 9.9 88°F 87°F1019.7 hPa
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 44 mi43 min SW 3.9 G 7.8 90°F 1019.6 hPa75°F
KXPY 49 mi38 min SW 6 90°F 75°F

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA1 mi98 minSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F75°F67%1019.1 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA15 mi40 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F79°F70%1019.3 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA15 mi40 minNNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds90°F79°F70%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from NBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW9SW8S10S10--5NE3CalmCalmCalmSE3------------CalmCalmCalmW4W6SW4
1 day ago4S4S12CalmSW7SW13
G16
NW4S4CalmSE3S4Calm------------CalmNE3SE3S6S5SW8
2 days agoW6S6SW9CalmNW3NE73CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm------------CalmCalmSW5SW6SW5E4

Tide / Current Tables for Michoud Substation, ICWW, Louisiana
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Michoud Substation
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:48 AM CDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:12 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:44 PM CDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.40.50.70.91.11.21.41.51.61.71.71.71.61.41.20.90.60.40.1-0-0.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:42 AM CDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:12 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.30.40.50.70.811.21.31.41.51.51.51.41.31.10.90.70.50.40.20.10

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.