Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carrabelle, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 7:05PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 3:35 PM EDT (19:35 UTC) Moonrise 1:30PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ755 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1036 Am Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 10 knots becoming west 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1036 Am Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis..A weak cold front approaching from the northwest and high pressure over the western atlantic will create a light southeasterly to southerly wind today. An offshore flow will develop tonight as the front moves over the marine area and stalls. Winds will increase to cautionary levels Wednesday night and persist into Friday


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrabelle, FL
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location: 29.85, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 161742
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
142 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Aviation [through 18z Wednesday]
On and off MVFR ceilings are forecast to continue this afternoon.

Overnight, another round of ifr lifr ceilings and visibilities are
expected, especially around ecp and tlh. Restrictions should clear
by mid-morning tomorrow.

Prev discussion [1044 am edt]
Near term [through today]
Fog and low stratus across western portions of the florida
panhandle will gradually mix out over the next few hours. The
dense fog advisory has been allowed to expire. Skies should
become partly to mostly sunny by late morning.

A weak cold front will stall to the northwest of the area today as
a mid level ridge extends over the region. Building instability,
with mlcapes between 1200-1800 j kg, should help support isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

The current forecast has been updated to remove dense fog wording,
otherwise the forecast looks on track.

Jlh mob

Short term [tonight through Thursday]
A mid-upper level +pv anomaly will dig into the great lakes
tonight, amplifying the trough over the eastern conus, and
finally pushing the stalled front further to the southeast. The
front will finally reach our local area on Wednesday, only to
stall out Wednesday night just south of the area. This weak
frontal boundary will remain more or less stationary through
Thursday. Low-end (20-30%) pops are in the forecast Wednesday
afternoon with the front, but little to no rainfall accumulations
are during the short term period. The good news is that
temperatures will be cooler thanks to the front, peaking in the
80s to low 90s Wednesday and upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday.

Wednesday morning temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low
70s, but Thursday morning will be much cooler, with temperatures
ranging from the low 60s (north of a line from marianna, fl to
fitzgerald, ga) to around 70 (in the eastern fl big bend).

Long term [Thursday night through Tuesday]
The mid-upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will move off
the eastern seaboard, leaving the stationary front stalled across
our area through Friday. Around Friday night, a mid-upper level
+pv anomaly will dig into the ohio valley, creating an amplified
trough over the eastern CONUS again, and pushing through a
second, stronger cold front this weekend. Pops rise to 30-50%
Saturday with the passage of this second cold front and then a
noticeably colder, drier airmass will move into place early next
week. Highs will be in the 70s across the area and lows in the
50s to low 60s Sunday through Tuesday.

Marine
Low level high pressure will remain east of our coastal waters
today, keeping winds light and from the southeast to east through
tonight. A front currently stalled over central al and northern ga
will move over the local area Wednesday afternoon, then begin to
stall. Winds will increase to cautionary levels on Wednesday night
and these conditions will persist through Friday.

Fire weather
Light winds will keep dispersion indices on the lower side
today and tomorrow and they may not rise above 20 Wednesday
afternoon in parts of N fl. Otherwise, no hazardous fire
weather conditions are forecast for the next several days.

Hydrology
The chipola river at altha has fallen out of flood, but is
expected to have a second rise to moderate flood so the warning
remains.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 71 89 66 83 66 10 30 10 10 10
panama city 72 87 65 84 67 10 30 10 10 10
dothan 69 83 59 79 61 20 20 10 10 10
albany 70 85 61 76 59 20 10 10 10 10
valdosta 71 90 66 81 63 20 30 10 10 10
cross city 72 91 71 86 69 10 20 20 20 10
apalachicola 73 86 68 84 70 10 30 10 10 20

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Jlh
short term... Nguyen
long term... Nguyen
aviation... Harrigan
marine... Nguyen
fire weather... Nguyen
hydrology... Nguyen


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 19 mi35 min S 7 G 7 82°F 80°F1018.4 hPa (-1.8)
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 25 mi101 min SSE 9.9 G 11 84°F 81°F1018.1 hPa
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 32 mi35 min SSE 7 G 8 81°F 1018.2 hPa (-1.8)75°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AAF (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Carrabelle, Carrabelle River, Florida
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Carrabelle
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:18 AM EDT     1.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:00 AM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:36 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.61.71.822.12.22.32.22.11.81.51.20.90.60.50.50.60.711.21.41.61.7

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, FSU Lab, Florida
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Turkey Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:38 AM EDT     1.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:42 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:13 PM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.61.61.81.92.12.22.22.11.91.51.20.80.50.40.40.50.711.31.61.81.81.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.