Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 4:06 PM   Moonset 3:20 AM

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GMZ755 Expires:202405191000;;454654 Fzus52 Ktae 190150 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 950 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-191000- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- 950 pm edt Sat may 18 2024 /850 pm cdt Sat may 18 2024/
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Rest of tonight - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming west near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Monday night - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 1 foot at 3 seconds and south 1 foot at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 950 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Strong southerly wake low winds will exit the waters soon after midnight. A weak front will slowly move across the waters late tonight and on Sunday, with gentle to possibly moderate westerly breezes and a renewed chance of chance of showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure will setup anchor northeast of the coastal waters by Monday and remain there through at least midweek.

FXUS62 KTAE 190200 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1000 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

New NEAR TERM, MARINE, AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Through Monday)
Issued at 959 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

In the big picture, we are watching an upper low over far northern Alabama, and a positively tilted upper trough trailing back across Louisiana. Over the next 24 hours, these features will move east.

Late this evening, we are watching a line of thunderstorms moving southeast past I-85 in east-central Alabama, along the southern edge of the upper low. Guidance insists that the line of storms will weaken and eventually as they enter our southeast Alabama counties.

On Sunday, colder air aloft within the passing upper trough will steepen low-mid level lapse rates. This will contribute to afternoon shower and thunderstorm development, with some of the better coverage coming under the coldest air aloft in our Georgia counties, and then where we get seabreeze convergence over our Florida counties. With cold air aloft and 500 mb temperatures as low as -11C to -12C, small hail will be a stronger possibility. Steep lapse rates and unidirectional speed shear will support gusty outflow winds.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Additional shortwave energy rotates through the northwest flow aloft on Monday, and with PWATs around 1.2 inches and added convergence from the seabreeze, some afternoon showers possible invof the I-10 corridor (especially the eastern FL Big Bend)
but do not expect thunder.

Deep layer ridging builds in thereafter through Wednesday with low to mid-level northeast flow and a dry air mass.

With rising heights aloft, highs gradually warm from the low-mid 80s on Monday to the upper 80s-lower 90s Wednesday.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Deep layer ridging moves southeast of the region with low to mid-level southerly flow getting underway. Cannot rule out a pop-up shower or thunderstorm with the seabreeze on Thursday. Otherwise, the better chance of a shower/t-storm is on Friday with the approach of a shortwave aloft. Highs generally remaining in the upper 80s-lower 90s through the period.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 959 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Radar is showing the beginning of renewed convective development near VLD. If thunderstorms develop, they will quickly exit off to the east, so have only included 2 hours of VCTS at VLD.
Otherwise, the moist low- level air mass will lend itself to overnight development of MVFR stratus, which will then lower to IFR stratus by sunrise. In typical fashion, it will lift starting 2-3 hours after sunrise.

An upper low will move across north Georgia on Sunday. The cold air aloft will support some pop-up afternoon shower and thunderstorm development. Confidence in placement, coverage, and timing is only high enough go with VCSH and VCTS at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 959 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Strong Southerly wake low winds will exit the waters soon after midnight. A weak front will slowly move across the waters late tonight and on Sunday, with gentle to possibly moderate westerly breezes and a renewed chance of chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will setup anchor northeast of the coastal waters by Monday and remain there through at least midweek.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

A weak cold front will pass the districts late tonight, bringing a turn to westerly breezes and a somewhat drier air mass. A few afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon. Then high pressure will bridge in from the northeast on Sunday night, bringing a turn to northeast breezes on Monday along with a little more drying of the air mas. A deeply mixed layer on Tuesday afternoon will be the main contributor to high dispersion values over inland districts. This could lead to well-developed vertical smoke columns.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

The highest rainfall amounts have occurred from Geneva County to invof the I-10 corridor in the FL counties with radar estimated in the 3-6 inch, and another bullseye of 6-8 inches near southern Jefferson County. Much of the remainder of Southeast AL & Southwest GA (outside of the southern tier of counties) is in the 2-4 inch range.

The Flash Flood Watch is gradually being cancelled from northwest to southeast as the heavier rainfall abates late Saturday afternoon.
Additional rainfall of between a half of an inch and one inch is expected from the I-75 corridor of GA into the FL Big Bend through Sunday.

The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta (Skipper Bridge Road) and Quitman, Ochlockonee River at Concord, and Saint Marks River at Newport are all in minor flood, with the Saint Marks expected to crest just below moderate by Sunday evening. Meanwhile, some points along the Choctawhatchee, Chipola, Flint, and Aucilla Rivers are in -or- will reach action stage. The Shoal River at Mossy Head is also headed toward action stage as of late Saturday afternoon. Addt'l river flooding is possible as water continues to drain into the aforementioned basins.

Beyond Sunday, several days of dry weather is expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 68 87 68 86 / 30 40 0 20 Panama City 70 85 69 86 / 20 10 0 10 Dothan 67 84 66 84 / 10 20 0 10 Albany 67 84 65 84 / 20 50 0 10 Valdosta 68 86 67 85 / 40 40 10 20 Cross City 69 86 67 87 / 60 60 10 40 Apalachicola 71 84 70 83 / 40 20 0 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Sunday for GMZ765-770-772-775.

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Carrabelle
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:57 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:29 PM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:45 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Carrabelle, Carrabelle River, Florida, Tide feet

Turkey Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:19 AM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:53 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:10 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Turkey Point, FSU Lab, Florida (2), Tide feet

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