Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:44 AM   Moonset 4:28 PM

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GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 359 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect through late tonight - .
Today - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots this afternoon. Lake waters rough. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Lake waters rough. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters rough. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Monday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. Tuesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. Wednesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake waters rough. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Thursday - South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Thursday night - South winds around 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Lake waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 359 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet will prevail for much of the upcoming week. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will develop through the day before diminishing this evening with rain chances remaining limited thereafter through the week.

FXUS64 KLCH 051706 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1206 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Made some adjustments to hourly PoPs/Wx grids based on current radar trends and latest hi-res guidance. Radar has thankfully shown a diminishing trend with the convection near Houston that is moving east into Jefferson and southern Hardin Counties. Earlier convection across SW LA showed signs of at least midlevel rotation, but this has weakened and moved east of the area.

While the main impulse is lifting northeast, another one is noted back to the southwest which could support some additional convection later this afternoon. The atmosphere remains moist and unstable with enough shear to support a few storms capable of strong wind gusts or small hail. Meanwhile, the threat for widespread flooding is beginning to trend more localized, and any storms that develop this afternoon could produce very high rainfall rates. The Flood Watch will remain in effect through 7 PM this evening as the threat will persist until convection finally diminishes.

Given lingering cloud cover and showers, temperatures have been a little slower to warm than expected so tweaks were made to hourly T/Td. However, highs still look to be on track to reach the lower 80s. Updated text products have been sent.

24

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A broken line of convection has developed across the region this morning in what will be the first wave of convection associated with another upper level disturbance traversing the region today.
CAMS guidance was actually quite consistent in the development of this activity and continues to be in good agreement on another MCS pushing through the area later today. With most of the region still very saturated from rainfall over the last several days, southeast Texas and parts of western Louisiana are particularly susceptible to flash flooding resulting from high rainfall rates.
No changes were made to the inherited Flash Flood Watch this morning that covers Southeast Texas and a Flash Flood Warning has already been issued for Tyler county due to the heavy rain already observed. Away from the convection, areas of light fog have again developed this morning thanks to light winds and very wet soils.

The MCS is expected to clear the area by early this evening with precip largely ending by sunset. Surface winds overnight will be marginally light enough for the development of some patchy fog.
Monday is looking somewhat drier. However, another weak disturbance is being picked up by most guidance and while this one isn't nearly as strong as the one moving across the region today, it looks like it will have enough moisture with it to initialize isolated to widely scattered afternoon convection tomorrow.

Some drier air and zonal flow aloft will finally offer a break from convection Tuesday with afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s beneath the clearer skies.

Jones

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The warming trend continues into Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region which will yield apparent temperatures close to 100 across parts of central Louisiana and interior parts of Southeast Texas. The next, thankfully low, chance of rain looks to come Thursday into Thursday night with the passage of a late season cold front that looks to bring some noticeably cooler, drier air by next weekend.
Long range temperatures have lows down into the mid 50s across central Louisiana and lower 60s to just off the immediate coastline. This may be our last gasp of spring before the notorious gulf coast summer kicks into high gear.

Jones

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions are seen across the area. Expect a trend toward VFR at area sites during the afternoon, but scattered showers and storms could develop, resulting in rapidly lowering cigs/vsbys near airports. Convection should diminish after 00Z, with cigs lowering back to MVFR or possibly IFR at times by 06Z.
Some patchy fog will be possible as well. Winds will remain generally light, out of the south.

24

MARINE
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet will prevail for much of the upcoming week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop through the day before diminishing this evening with rain chances remaining limited thereafter through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 81 66 85 70 / 80 10 30 0 LCH 80 70 83 73 / 50 20 20 0 LFT 84 72 86 75 / 40 20 20 0 BPT 81 71 84 73 / 70 10 20 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616.

GM...None.

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Calcasieu Pass
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:45 AM CDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:27 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:28 AM CDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:07 PM CDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:27 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:34 PM CDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana (2), Tide feet

Calcasieu Pass
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:41 AM CDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:27 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:54 AM CDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:37 PM CDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:27 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:53 PM CDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana, Tide feet

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