Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hackberry, LA

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 8:20PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 11:51 AM CDT (16:51 UTC) Moonrise 9:27PMMoonset 7:11AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 1007 Am Cdt Wed Jun 19 2019
Rest of today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 1007 Am Cdt Wed Jun 19 2019
Synopsis.. High pressure at the surface east of florida will ridge across the northern gulf of mexico and into the coastal waters during this period, keeping a southerly wind flow. Low pressure at the surface will develop over the plains tomorrow and again over the weekend increasing the southerly winds and building seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hackberry, LA
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location: 29.85, -93.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 191406
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
906 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019

Update The southern edge of a decaying MCS will graze vernon,
rapides, and avoyelles parishes this morning. The left over
outflow may also spark additional isolated showers early in the
afternoon. While guidance continues to handle the event poorly
and indicate dissipation quickly, showers and perhaps a storm may
still drift in. Added isolated pops through 22z to the northern
zones. The remainder of the forecast is unchanged for now.

Prev discussion issued 715 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019
discussion...

for the 06 19 19 1200 utc TAF package.

Aviation...

MVFR at all sites early this morning aside from a few short
duration MVFR obs at klch due to CU stratocu streaming in off the
gulf. Will also have to watch low stratus deck just west of kaex
which is yielding ifr CIGS at kpoe. Otherwise,VFR is expected to
prevail today amid fair weather CU and high cirrus, though did
insert vcts at kaex from mid morning through mid afternoon as an
mcs moving through NW la NE tx could impact this terminal as it
continues toward the ese.VFR to prevail this evening and through
the overnight.

13
prev discussion... Issued 420 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019
synopsis...

a thunderstorm complex that is expected to redevelop later today
over north texas will have to be watched closely as some of this
activity may enter the forecast area overnight as it weakens.

Otherwise, an upper level ridge will build north out of the gulf
and be the main player through the remainder of the week with
limited rain chances, along with hot and humid conditions, with
maximum afternoon heat index readings or apparent temperatures
ranging from 102f to 106f.

Upper level conditions are expected to become more favorable for
shower and thunderstorm development by Sunday into early next
week.

Rua
discussion...

rather quite on radar so far this early morning with no activity
over the immediate area as upper level ridging over the northern
gulf of mexico tries to push into the forecast area. Some high
level cloudiness is noted moving across the forecast area. This is
mainly convective blow-off from storms over north texas and
oklahoma. This activity will slide eastward and eventually weaken
as it outruns its main energy source and stay north of the
forecast area.

With upper level ridge pushing into the forecast area, helping to
provided an expected drier mid layer, enough of a cap should be
in place to preclude any significant convection from developing over
the immediate forecast area through the afternoon.

Will have to watch closely the expected redevelopment of a
thunderstorm complex later today over north texas, as a short wave
moves east out of the rockies, it is expected to reignite storms
along the leftover convective boundary from current activity and
atmosphere recovering and becoming unstable during MAX daytime
heating. This complex could become quite intense with SPC having
an enhance risk for severe weather in that area. If this does
occur, the thunderstorm complex will head eastward and will likely
produce convective outflow boundaries that will push outward and toward
the forecast area.

Global model consensus keeps main activity to the north with qpf
fields not reaching the forecast area. However, some of the hi-res
cams do have convection reaching the northern portions of the
forecast area, albeit in a weakening state, around midnight, then
gradually pushing south and continuing to weaken further before
reaching the coast before dawn. The cam guidance may be able to
pick up on the convective outflows better, and with the forecast
area expected to warm-up quite nicely today, there may be enough
left over instability to keep some of the convection going as it
reaches the forecast area and starts to hit the ridge. Therefore,
will keep a small chance of pops going for late evening into the
overnight to account for this.

Otherwise, as the short wave to the north continues to move off to
the east on Thursday, the upper level ridge will continue to
build into the region for the remainder of the week. This will
limit rain chances as well as allow conditions to become rather
hot and humid. Maximum afternoon heat index readings or the
apparent temperature from Thursday into Saturday is expected to
range from 102f to 106f degrees, or just below the local heat
advisory criteria of 108f degrees.

General agreement with the global models with the upper level
ridge beginning to break down on Sunday, allowing another upper
level disturbance to move across early next week, increasing
chances for showers and storms.

Rua
marine...

a surface high east of florida will continue to ridge to the west
and across the northern gulf of mexico and into the coastal waters
for the next several days. This will keep mainly a light to modest
southerly flow in place. A series of low pressure systems will
develop across the plains. Each one will help increase the
gradient and thus the wind speeds over the coastal waters. The
first will increase sustained winds to the 15 to 20 knot range for
Thursday into Friday, with the potential for small craft exercise
caution to be headlined in the marine zones.

Over the weekend sustained winds will increase to near 20 knots
for the coastal waters, with seas building to near 7 feet for the
outer marine zones. Therefore, small craft exercise caution will
likely be headlined in the marine zones, with the potential for a
small craft advisory for a portion of the marine zones.

Also, by the second half of the weekend into early next week, an
upper level ridge will begin to break down, and this will allow
for the chance of showers or thunderstorms over the coastal
waters.

Rua

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 95 76 95 76 20 30 10 0
lch 92 78 92 78 10 20 10 0
lft 94 77 94 78 10 10 10 0
bpt 92 79 93 79 10 20 10 0

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Public... 05


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA 7 mi57 min WSW 8.9 G 13 84°F 85°F1012.2 hPa
BKTL1 24 mi57 min 85°F
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 25 mi57 min SSW 9.9 G 13 86°F 84°F1014.5 hPa
TXPT2 25 mi57 min SSW 11 G 12 84°F 84°F1012.5 hPa
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 27 mi57 min S 8.9 G 12 87°F 83°F1013 hPa
LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA 28 mi57 min 86°F 83°F1012.6 hPa

Wind History for Calcasieu Pass, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southland Field, LA20 mi56 minSSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F75°F64%1012.9 hPa
Lake Charles Regional Airport, LA22 mi58 minSSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F75°F68%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from UXL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W7SW5SW4SW3SW6SW8S6S4S5S5S5SW3SW4SW3S3SW3CalmS3SW4SW6W6SW6S6
1 day agoS7S9S8SW6SW7S5S5S7S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S6SW5
2 days agoS15
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N9NE9NE5NE4NW5E4CalmN3W6NW6CalmE3SE15
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SE6SE7S11
G16

Tide / Current Tables for Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana (2)
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Calcasieu Pass
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:13 AM CDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:11 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:25 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:04 PM CDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.10.71.21.722.12.121.91.91.81.81.81.81.71.61.41.10.70.3-0.1-0.3-0.4

Tide / Current Tables for Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana
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Calcasieu Pass
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:21 AM CDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:11 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:02 PM CDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:17 PM CDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:25 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:02 PM CDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.20.71.21.722.22.121.81.61.51.41.41.51.61.51.41.10.80.40-0.3-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.