Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 11:22 AM   Moonset 12:44 AM

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AMZ454 Expires:202405140915;;164489 Fzus52 Kjax 140008 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 808 pm edt Mon may 13 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-140915- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 808 pm edt Mon may 13 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt Tuesday - .
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 35 knots this evening. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly this evening. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Thursday and Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 3 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms through the night, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 808 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis - Elevated south-southeasterly winds across the local waters tonight will continue small craft advisory conditions through Tuesday morning. Rain and embedded storms will pass over the waters this evening and through the overnight hours while a warm front slowly lifts northeastward into the waters by daybreak. Another wave of strong to severe storms will develop and move eastward into the waters during the late morning hours Tuesday and be capable of considerable Thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and waterspouts. Winds will trend lighter and offshore behind the warm front Tuesday morning. This will be followed by a slow moving cold front that will pass into the waters on Wednesday. Conditions begin to improve Thursday as an area of weak high pressure consolidates to the east.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 11, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
57 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 66 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 83 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 99 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 140539 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 139 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A messy and complex forecast through Tonight as a batch of convection associated with a shortwave impulse rides along a moisture/instability boundary lying near the the FL/GA state line.
Light rain and isolated embedded storms ahead of the primary wave have already spread eastward along and north of I-10. Intensity and coverage of thunderstorms will increase through the rest of the afternoon along the I-75 corridor where instability will be more supportive. In that corridor, given robust deep and lower level shear the potential exists for isolated strong to marginally severe storms are possible capable of strong wind gusts 40-60 mph, isolated tornadoes and small hail. Elsewhere surface-based instability will be at a premium and anticipate most of the precip to consist of light/moderate stratiform rain with embedded storms through the evening hours before activity shifts south and offshore between 10 pm and midnight. Overnight convection will take a break before the next round of what appears to be a more considerable squall line pushes across the Panhandle of FL and into the Suwannee Valley toward daybreak.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Active weather continues through Tuesday and Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward, followed by a cold front moving in from the northwest on Wednesday. Convective models are indicating an early start to convection Tuesday, with our western most counties seeing strong to isolated severe potential beginning just before sunrise.
Storms will sweep eastward across NE FL and SE GA through the morning and early afternoon, with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall being the primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled out as well. The Storm Prediction Center upgraded most of NE FL/SE GA to a 'Slight' risk (2/5) for severe weather Tuesday.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will linger through the evening, as the front progresses southeastward overnight.

By Wednesday morning, precipitation chances will be mainly limited to northeast Florida through sunset. Several rounds of heavy rainfall and training thunderstorms will create a risk for localized flooding issues, especially in urban areas and areas with poor drainage over the next few days. Gusty southwesterly winds and clearing skies behind the front will allow a warm-up in temperatures Wednesday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s area-wide.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Drier air will temporarily be in place on Thursday as the cold front sits south of the area, ahead of the next system incoming this weekend. A warm front will lift northward on Friday, followed by another frontal boundary moving in from the northwest on Saturday, allowing for widespread scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms through the weekend. Strong storm potential will be present, along with heavy rainfall causing localized flooding issues.

High temperatures will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s each day during this period, with mild lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Gusty winds from earlier convection have been winding down, and expected to be near or slightly below 10 kt for the next several hours. All terminals experiencing low stratus and MVFR, which is expected to persist for the next several hours, bordering on IFR.
IFR ceilings are expected for all terminals by around 08 to 10Z before the next round of convection moves through and ceilings start to lift just prior to the onset. Confidence remains high enough for TEMPO TSRA for all sites, with GNV looking like the highest chance for strong TSRA as well. However, gusty winds will be possible for all terminals as morning convection moves through.
Have continued gusts up to 35 kt in the latest forecast, though higher gusts in future TEMPO groups will be possible.

Morning convection lowers confidence with respect to possible afternoon and evening development with the nearly stationary boundary. For now, have only included VCSH in the latest forecast, though TSRA will certainly be possible towards the second half of the forecast period.



MARINE
Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Enhancing east to southeast winds across the local waters will trend southerly tonight with small craft advisory conditions likely through Tuesday morning. Rain and embedded storms will pass over the waters this evening and through overnight hours while a warm front slowly lifts northeastward into the waters by daybreak. Another wave of strong to severe storms will develop and move eastward into the waters during the late morning hours Tuesday and be capable of considerable thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and waterspouts. Winds will trend lighter and offshore behind the warm front Tuesday morning. This will be followed by a slow moving cold front that will pass into the waters on Wednesday. Conditions begin to improve Thursday as an area of weak high pressure consolidates to the east.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for NE FL and SE GA beaches, remaining moderate for SA GA Tuesday, but low for NE FL.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

From Monday to Wednesday, forecast storm total rainfall amounts are from 2 to 3 inches for southeast GA to about 1 to 2 inches for northeast FL. This may be enough to raise river levels a bit but for now no minor river flooding is forecast. The high- end potential total rain is over 5 inches in some locations, mainly favoring nrn half of the area, so we will need to monitor trends in the guidance for further updates to the forecast rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 70 87 66 / 70 60 20 0 SSI 82 72 87 70 / 70 50 30 0 JAX 86 70 90 68 / 70 70 40 0 SGJ 89 70 88 69 / 70 80 60 10 GNV 87 70 86 66 / 80 80 70 10 OCF 90 71 86 67 / 70 70 80 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ450-452-454.

Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ470-472-474.

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