Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Panacea, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 6:06PM Monday January 22, 2018 2:59 PM EST (19:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:59AMMoonset 11:18PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 249 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest late in the night. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight. Areas of fog after midnight.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet Wednesday night. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters choppy.
Friday through Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of rain on Saturday.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 249 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis..Winds and seas will be agitated by tonight's frontal passage and will remain elevated for the next several days as a low pressure system develops in the western gulf and then moves into our forecast area this weekend. Cautionary conditions are expected the next few days, with advisory conditions possibly developing around Wednesday night for our offshore waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Panacea, FL
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location: 29.9, -84.41     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 221948
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
248 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Near term [through tonight]
At 1 pm est a surface cold front extended southward through eastern
ms, southeast la, and into the western gulf of mexico from a 995 mb
low centered over ia. The mid-upper tropospheric low was positioned
near the surface low, indicating that the low was near maturity.

Ragged bands of showers and thunderstorms preceded this surface
front, and will be moving east across our forecast area later this
afternoon through tonight. While 0-6km bulk shear values suggest
storm organization is possible, poor thermodynamics will make it
difficult to sustain strong updrafts, or for surface-based damaging
wind gusts. So far recent upstream radar imagery and surface
observations bear this out, as there haven't been any significant
wind gusts where there was organized reflectivity.

For most of our forecast area temperatures will be well above
average, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. However, lows in the
upper 40s are expected in southeast al and the western fl panhandle,
where the cold front will have moved through before daybreak. Ahead
of the front, areas of fog will be possible, mainly between the time
when the rain ends and the cold front arrives.

Short term [Tuesday through Wednesday night]
The cold front will continue sweeping eastward across the
remainder of the forecast area Tuesday, with a cooler, drier
airmass moving in behind it. Temperatures will warm to the 60s
Tuesday, but will struggle to hit 60 Wednesday as the cold air
advection continues. Overnight, temperatures will dip into the
mid-upper 30s Tuesday night, low-mid 30s on Wednesday night.

Long term [Thursday through Monday]
A shortwave upper level trough will lift northeastward from central
mexico toward the central gulf coast, helping develop a disturbance
in the western gulf waters that will move toward the north-central
gulf coastline. As this system will spend its early life cycle over
the gulf waters, it's expected to be very rich in moisture and
bring a decent amount of rain with it. Early estimates from wpc
are around 1-2" accumulations this weekend, with higher rainfall
totals offshore and to our west. The storm will move eastward out
of the area by Sunday night, with a dry start to the following
work week.

Aviation [through 18z Tuesday]
Onshore s-se winds were keeping a stable marine layer in place
across much of the region so far today, with ifr to low-end MVFR
cigs being reported at all stations. CIGS will improve to MVFR
levels later this afternoon as a ragged, north-south oriented band
of shra tsra moves east, affecting kecp and kdhn mid to late
afternoon, then ktlh and kaby this evening, then finally kvld later
tonight. There will be a 3-6 hour window for fog low CIGS to develop
between the end of this rain and the cold front passage late
tonight, but the cold front will bring a wind shift to the NW and
gradually clearing skies Tuesday morning.

Marine
Winds and seas will be agitated by tonight's frontal passage and
will remain elevated for the next several days as a low pressure
system develops in the western gulf and then moves into our
forecast area this weekend. Cautionary conditions are expected the
next few days, with advisory conditions possibly developing
around Wednesday night for our offshore waters.

Fire weather
A few areas could briefly reach locally critical rh values Tuesday
afternoon. However, tonight's rain and weakening winds on Tuesday
should prevent red flag conditions are not expected.

Hydrology
Rainfall totals from the approaching cold front will be around 0.5-
1", which is not expected to cause any flooding concerns. This
weekend, we'll have another chance for rain, this time with higher
rainfall totals expected, around 1-2", which should be welcomed
given our current drought.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 56 68 38 59 34 90 10 0 0 0
panama city 54 63 41 57 39 90 0 0 0 0
dothan 48 64 36 59 33 90 0 0 0 0
albany 52 65 37 60 34 100 0 0 0 0
valdosta 59 66 39 57 36 100 20 0 0 0
cross city 61 70 39 60 35 80 40 0 0 0
apalachicola 57 65 41 57 38 70 0 0 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Fournier
short term... Nguyen
long term... Nguyen
aviation... Fournier
marine... Nguyen
fire weather... Fournier
hydrology... Nguyen


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 13 mi126 min E 1 G 1.9 57°F 1018.4 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 26 mi75 min SE 6 65°F 64°F
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 33 mi42 min ESE 6 G 8.9 57°F 51°F1015.9 hPa
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 41 mi60 min SSE 16 G 16 65°F 1016.4 hPa (-3.1)65°F
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 44 mi60 min SSE 16 G 20 68°F 1017.3 hPa (-2.5)

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Apalachicola, Apalachicola, FL35 mi67 minSE 68.00 miOvercast66°F64°F96%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from AAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E8E5E5E5E5CalmCalmCalmNE3E6E7E8E9E6----------SE9SE7SE6E6
1 day agoSE7SE7CalmCalmNE3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE4NE5NE6NE4E4E4E8E8E9E7SE10SE8
2 days agoS6S7S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE3CalmNE3NE5NE5NE5NE6NE75SE6S7

Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Point, St. James Island, Florida
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Alligator Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:33 AM EST     2.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:32 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:16 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:17 PM EST     2.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:18 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:51 PM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.91.31.82.12.11.91.510.50.1-0.100.40.91.522.22.21.91.510.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Panacea, Dickerson Bay, Florida
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Panacea
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:57 AM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:32 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:25 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:41 PM EST     3.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:18 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.511.62.22.72.92.72.21.50.80.3-0.1-00.411.82.52.932.72.21.50.90.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.