Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Panacea, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:30PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 4:46 PM EST (21:46 UTC) Moonrise 7:55PMMoonset 8:07AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 212 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019 /112 Pm Cst Wed Feb 20 2019/
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of rain in the morning. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday through Saturday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of rain.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of rain.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 knots to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of rain.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 212 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis.. Southerly winds around 10 to 15 knots and seas around 2 to 4 feet will persist through much of the period. Main marine hazards through the end of the week will be the possible development of sea fog tonight and Thursday night within 20 to 30 nautical miles of the coast. A chance of showers is possible Thursday before shower chances reduce Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold front. Winds turn southwest ahead of Sunday's cold front and then become northwesterly by Sunday afternoon. Winds will not be overly strong with this system so advisory level conditions are not anticipated.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Panacea, FL
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location: 29.9, -84.41     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 201954
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
254 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Near term [through tonight]
The upper level pattern remains unchanged with a large ridge east of
the bahamas extending west across florida and the southern gulf of
mexico. A trough exists over the northern plains. Surface analysis
shows a wavy front extending from northeast florida across the far
northeast gulf to an area of low pressure on a cold front over
mississippi. The front has made some northward progress over far our
eastern and far western zones and this progress will continue for
the balance of the afternoon. We are therefore still expecting the
70+ degree temperatures to make it all the way across the forecast
area before sunset. Overnight, high dew points in the mid to upper
60s will advect over mid 60s shelf waters to produce some advection
fog and low ceilings overnight. Overnight lows will be in the mid
60s in many areas, just a few degrees shy of normal high temps for
this time of year. Convection associated with the cold front to our
west may survive long enough to bring a rumble of thunder to our far
western zones late in the day. However, most areas will remain rain-
free.

Short term [Thursday through Friday night]
The upper level ridge over the western atlantic that has kept
much of the precipitation to our north and west will remain in
place through the short term period. Closer to home a frontal
boundary will push southeast on Thursday but will stall over
central alabama as the upper level disturbance responsible for
this front will have long departed the us. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will remain centered over central northern alabama
through the period but heating of the day on Thursday will allow
shower development further south in our alabama and western
panhandle counties. Rainfall amounts won't be high in our region,
but some isolated locations in alabama and western fl panhandle
could approach an inch. Rainfall chances lessen Friday as the
stalled front lifts back north and the ridge axis builds further
west. Can't rule out an isolated shower, but rain chances will
primarily be confined away from the coast and in our ga and al
counties.

Other concerns through the short term deal with fog as moist
southerly flow traversing over cooler shelf waters along our
coasts and lighter winds will allow areas of fog to develop
Thursday night

Long term [Saturday through Wednesday]
Dry conditions expected through most of Saturday but a round of
showers and an isolated thunderstorm is expected overnight
Saturday into Sunday morning as a cold front pushes through.

Rainfall amounts will not be high with this front and severe
weather is not expected as the front front will be weakening as it
moves through.

Cooler and drier conditions expected Monday as northerly flow
moves in. Looking ahead into next week the pattern potentially
turns more active as the ridge to our east is finally weakened and
more progressive westerly flow aloft takes over. This will likely
increase rain chances into the middle part of next week as
Sunday's cold front is expected to stall somewhere to our south
and will likely lift as a warm front sometime next week.

Aviation
[through 18z Thursday]
ifr ceilings will prevail for most of the TAF period. However, a
few hours of MVFR ceilings are expected this afternoon and again
toward the end of the TAF cycle. Visibilities are harder to
predict. However, with a potential advection fog off the gulf of
mexico, we feel lifr CIGS and visibility are possible at most
terminals late tonight into Thursday morning.

Marine
Southerly winds around 10 to 15 knots and seas around 2 to 4 feet
will persist through much of the period. Main marine hazards
through the end of the week will be the possible development of
sea fog tonight and Thursday night within 20 to 30 nautical miles
of the coast. A chance of showers is possible Thursday before
shower chances reduce Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold front.

Winds turn southwest ahead of Sunday's cold front and then become
northwesterly by Sunday afternoon. Winds will not be overly strong
with this system so advisory level conditions are not anticipated.

Fire weather
There are no fire weather concerns at least for the next several
days.

Hydrology
The heaviest rain will remain well north and west of the region
through the next week. There are no flooding concerns from local
rainfall as amounts will generally be under 1 inch over the next 5
days. However, looking at the next 7 to 14 days, rises on our
larger rivers are possible as the water from the heavy rainfall to
our north moves downstream into our region.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 64 79 63 82 62 10 10 10 10 0
panama city 66 75 65 76 64 20 40 10 10 10
dothan 66 79 65 80 64 30 70 20 20 10
albany 64 79 61 81 62 20 40 20 20 20
valdosta 64 84 61 85 63 10 10 10 20 10
cross city 64 83 62 84 62 10 0 10 10 0
apalachicola 66 73 64 74 64 20 10 10 10 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 11 pm est 10 pm cst this evening
for coastal bay-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Wool
short term... Dobbs
long term... Dobbs
aviation... Wool
marine... Dobbs
fire weather... Barry
hydrology... Dobbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 13 mi112 min SSE 11 G 13 68°F 63°F1016.6 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 33 mi28 min S 8 G 9.9 67°F 64°F1016.6 hPa
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 41 mi46 min SSE 20 G 21 68°F 1016 hPa (-1.8)68°F
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 44 mi46 min S 13 G 15 72°F 1017.9 hPa (-1.0)68°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tallahassee - Tallahassee International Airport, FL35 mi53 minS 910.00 miOvercast74°F69°F85%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from TLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E13E12E13E15E13
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1 day agoN6N8N7NE8N6NE6NE5E6E6E7E7NE4N4N4NE6NE8NE5E9E12E13E14E14E7E10
2 days agoS8S7SE7SE5S5S6S6S8S6S8SW7SW5SW4S3CalmSW3SW3N10N13
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Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Point, St. James Island, Florida
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Alligator Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:56 AM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:06 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:00 AM EST     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:01 PM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:30 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:04 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.62.82.62.11.40.6-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.50.10.91.72.32.52.41.91.30.70.30.10.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, FSU Lab, Florida
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Turkey Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:56 AM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:07 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:51 AM EST     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:15 PM EST     2.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:30 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:53 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.72.82.62.11.30.5-0.2-0.7-0.8-0.6-00.71.522.32.21.81.40.90.50.40.61

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.