Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Villano Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:55PM Monday January 22, 2018 7:25 AM EST (12:25 UTC) Moonrise 10:46AMMoonset 11:05PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 625 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon est today...
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Widespread dense fog in the morning with visibilities less than one mile, then patchy fog in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Patchy fog in the evening. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..North northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 625 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis.. High pressure will continue to move east away from the area today. Conditions will be favorable for sea fog across the nearshore waters today and tonight. Winds will become southwesterly and increase late tonight into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Numerous showers and embedded Thunderstorms will move east across the area waters tonight. The actual cold front will not push across the waters until late in the day on Tuesday. Winds will become northwesterly behind the front on Tuesday night and northerly on Wednesday. High pressure will build north of the area on Thursday and then shift northeast of the area on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Villano Beach, FL
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location: 29.92, -81.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 220850
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
350 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Numerous showers and some embedded thunderstorms will bring
rain to the area tonight with locally heavy rainfall possible...

Near term through tonight
Moist air advection in east southeast flow off the atlantic will
result in areas of advection fog and or low stratus developing
along the coast early this morning. This fog stratus will increase
in coverage and drift inland near and after sunrise this morning.

This fog may become dense and we may end up needing a dense fog
advisory towards sunrise.

Fog stratus will burn off by mid to late morning. Mid to upper
level shortwave ridge will shift east of the area and deep
southwest flow above the surface will result in warm air advection
across the area this morning into this afternoon. Temps will warm
to the mid to upper 70s at inland locations. Southeasterly flow
over the cool shelf waters will keep the beaches cooler. Other
than perhaps a couple of isolated sprinkles near the coast this
morning, most areas should remain dry through the mid afternoon
hours.

Tonight's forecast is a complicated one. A rather strong mid to
upper level shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale mid
to upper level trough will trigger a fairly sizable area of
convection across the northeastern gulf of mexico well ahead of
the approaching cold front. This convection, driven by impressive
upper level energy and dynamics, will shift east across our area
tonight.

The consensus is for a mild and wet nighttime period across much
of our forecast area, perhaps a very wet night for some areas.

Some of the higher resolution models are indicating a swath of
rainfall in excess of 3 inches across a section of northeast
florida, from west to east across the florida peninsula. The
eventual location remains in doubt, but the focus seems to be in
an area from gainesville to st augustine. Some of the models,
however, place the band of heavier rainfall farther north into
southeast georgia. We will disregard these models and focus the
categorical rain chances potential for the heavier rainfall across
northeast florida generally along and south of the i-10 corridor.

We also think that the higher resolution models are too high with
the total rainfall amounts. A narrow swath of 1 to 2 inches seems
more reasonable but locally higher amounts will certainly be
possible. At least one of the models is even showing potential for
some isolated hail where the swath of heavier convection sets up.

Short term Tue through Thu night...

pre-frontal convection will be ongoing across the area early tue
morning, best coverage expected across NE fl ahead of the front
with a low chance of an isolated tstorm due to moist SW flow out
of the gulf across the area. Showers will be decreasing in
coverage and intensity across SE ga early Tue morning as the
surface front steadily presses southward through mid-morning, then
continues across NE fl into Tue afternoon. Drier and cooler air
will funnel southward across the area Tue night under shallow cold
air advection as surface high pressure builds across the southern
plains and extends a ridge eastward along the gulf coast states
with low level winds shifting more nw. High clouds will continue
to stream over the area aloft under mean layer wsw. Dry weather
will prevail Wed through Thu as the surface ridge builds eastward
toward the carolina atlantic coast through Thu night.

Temperatures will range above climo for highs Tue before frontal
passage, then cool to near to below climo values Wed & Thu with
highs generally in the 60s and lows in the mid upper 30s inland to
lower 40s coast. Cooler highs in the upper 50s toward the atlantic
coast Thu under breezy onshore flow. Temperatures further moderate
thu night as the surface ridge builds offshore of the carolinas
and onshore flow strengthens over NE fl. Could see some patchy
inland frost Wed Thu morning but most locations will remain above
freezing this period.

Long term Fri through mon...

temperatures continue to moderate Fri into Sat as warm air
advection pattern develops ahead of approaching, strong long wave
trough and surface cold front that is expected to impact the local
area late Sat into sun. Coastal trough offshore of the local coast
fri night begins to morph into lifting warm front with a chance of
mainly coastal showers Sat into Sat night as high temperatures
warm into the 70s upper 60s. Widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms expected to move across the area late Sat night from
the west, through Sunday, with clearing Sun afternoon as a colder
and drier airmass funnels over the area. Deep layer wnw flow late
Monday with temperatures cooling back below climo values for the
beginning of the work week as surface ridge builds eastward across
the central appalachians, but temps will quickly begin to
moderate late Monday as low level flow becomes onshore.

Aviation
Tricky forecast here for the early morning hours today. Advection
fog low stratus will continue to develop near the atlantic coast
and is expected to expand north and west through sunrise. Ifr
conditions will likely develop at or before sunrise at the
northeast florida TAF sites and continue through at least the mid
to late morning hours.

For tonight... A complex of showers and some embedded thunderstorm
activity will lift out of the gulf of mexico and move across
northeast florida tonight. Confidence in rain and degradative
conditions continues to increase. Ifr conditions seem likely for
all TAF sites tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and even perhaps
some lightning will also be possible for the northeast florida
terminals.

Marine
Sea fog will continue to develop over the cooler shelf waters here
this morning. Some of this fog may linger into the afternoon hours
and will likely expand or redevelop this evening. Southeast winds
10-15 knots today may increase to scec levels over the offshore
waters while veering to the southwest late tonight into Tuesday
just ahead of a cold front. Numerous showers and even a few
thunderstorms are expected to move east across the area waters
tonight well ahead of an approaching cold front. Onshore flow will
continue on Friday with speeds generally around 15 to 20 knots.

The actual cold front will not move across the waters until late
in the day on Tuesday. Northerly winds around 15 knots will then
prevail through Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Winds will veer
to the northeast and increase to near SCA levels over the
offshore waters on Thursday.

Rip currents: low risk.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 74 61 70 39 10 50 30 0
ssi 62 57 70 43 10 50 50 0
jax 75 62 74 41 10 70 50 0
sgj 71 63 74 46 10 80 50 0
gnv 77 63 73 42 20 80 50 0
ocf 78 63 74 44 40 80 50 0

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Shuler enyedi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 5 mi25 min N 4.1 G 4.1 53°F 53°F1021.1 hPa (+0.3)
41117 13 mi33 min 49°F2 ft
RCYF1 16 mi37 min 53°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 18 mi100 min Calm 51°F 1022 hPa51°F
LTJF1 33 mi37 min 53°F 52°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 34 mi37 min Calm G 0 54°F 52°F1020.8 hPa
BLIF1 35 mi37 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 53°F 1021.5 hPa53°F
DMSF1 35 mi37 min 51°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL4 mi29 minN 00.50 miFog51°F51°F100%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5--N5NE6N9NE6--NE8NE7N6NE4N3N4N5N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW3--3NE6NE7NE8NE6NE5Calm--CalmCalmS4CalmNW5----NW5CalmNW3NE3CalmCalmW3
2 days agoNW4NW3CalmNE6E6E7E6E5E5--SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Vilano Beach, Tolomato River, Florida
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Vilano Beach
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Mon -- 05:34 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 AM EST     4.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:13 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:05 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.73.22.31.40.70.30.30.71.52.53.33.943.72.91.90.90.300.20.81.82.73.4

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent Beach, Matanzas River, Florida
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Crescent Beach
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Mon -- 12:31 AM EST     3.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:46 PM EST     3.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:31 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:05 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.53.532.11.30.70.30.20.51.52.63.33.73.83.52.71.70.90.40.10.10.81.92.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.