Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 12:18 PM   Moonset 1:18 AM

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AMZ454 Expires:202405152115;;253533 Fzus52 Kjax 151358 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 958 am edt Wed may 15 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz452-454-152115- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 958 am edt Wed may 15 2024
.tornado watch 243 in effect until 11 am edt this morning - ..small craft exercise caution - .
Rest of today - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly this morning. Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Thursday - West winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 3 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas around 3 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely through the night. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 958 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis - Widespread showers and the potential for strong to severe storms are expected over our local waters this late morning through mid afternoon. Stronger storms may produce damaging wind gusts, hail and even waterspouts. Storms and showers will shift southeastward this mid afternoon as a cold frontal boundary shifts southward through the waters. Conditions will improve from north to south this mid afternoon through early evening, with breezy westerly winds expected outside of Thunderstorms that will gradually subside by Thursday afternoon as weak high pressure moves over the southeastern states. Winds will turn southerly on Friday ahead of the next frontal boundary that will impact our area this weekend. Showers and Thunderstorms will likely impact our local waters from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, with a few strong storms possible. Winds will then shift to northwesterly by Sunday afternoon and night as this front pushes offshore.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 14, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 93 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 151309 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 909 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 822 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Surface front is currently upstream of the region extending from central Georgia through the FL Panhandle into the central Gulf of Mexico. This feature will slowly migrate to the southeast through the day. Pooling of moisture is evident on satellite and surface observations with dewpoints in the lower 70s south of the FL/GA border with low layer streamline analysis showing deep moisture tap from the GOM with southwesterly flow. Precipitable water values are now above 1.6 inches south of I-10 where the main focus for convection will be this morning through mid afternoon where Convection over GOM will advect into Apalachee Bay and the Nature Coast pressing into our region while blossoming in areal coverage and strength as the morning progresses. At the same time the upper trof will continue to track across the SE U.S. which has brought 500 mb temps at -9 to -10 C. With cool mid level temps, hail (perhaps large) and strong gusty and isolated damaging thunderstorm wind gusts (40-60 mph) will be main threats with any of the stronger updrafts tapping into cooler air aloft. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out mainly south of SR16 as well, though this potential looks low at this time with a smaller time window potential with more speed shear with height as opposed to directional shear this late morning through mid afternoon. Tornado watch #243 continues for Flagler, Putnam, St.
Johns and Marion Counties though 11 am.

The line of showers and storms is expected to slowly sink south through the mid afternoon with northwesterly steering winds working into the region as surface cold front moves into coastal Georgia and Suwannee Valley. Current forecast, messaging on NWSChat 2.0 and social media channels look on track.

NEAR TERM
Issued at 201 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Shortwave energy crosses southern and central parts of the area tonight, and combined with plentiful moisture and elevated instability will develop showers and thunderstorms overnight, especially from about I-10 southward. In addition, a cold front is approaching western GA as of the 03Z WPC surface analysis, which will continue to shift southeastward throughout the night and today. Effective/0-6km shear is definitely sufficient, but the more significant element is the amount of available energy, especially aloft, where forecast soundings indicate near or about 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE or higher, with noticeable amounts within the hail growth zone. Therefore, expecting hail to be the primary threat with any stronger updrafts, though shear and kinematics certainly would warrant strong wind potential of 40-60mph. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well, though this potential looks marginal.

Overnight convection will be persistent into the late morning to early afternoon hours while slowly drifting south with the approaching front and associated dynamics aloft with the parent upper trough. Expecting a similar threat to play out for southern counties in northeast FL for the late morning to afternoon period, as vertical profiles will remain similar (high CAPE and sufficient shear). It is certainly possible for a couple of showers and isolated thunderstorms to pop up immediately ahead of the approaching front though lagging behind overnight activity as the front progresses southeastward (as far north as north of I-10), in which some high res solutions are suggesting. Though the severe threat should drop off quite a bit from south of north throughout the afternoon as a lot of drier air works its way in aloft. Southwest to westerly winds will also be quite breezy today, though below wind advisory criteria (10-20 mph and gusts in the upper 20s to 30s). Temps will be not as traditional today due to the frontal boundary and morning convection - generally in the mid to upper 80s south of I-10, with some areas approaching 90 possible over a stretch of southeast GA.

The front should settle sufficiently south of the region by tonight as some drier air near the surface and especially aloft fills in. Overall decreasing clouds and lows in the 60s inland, and near 70 near the St. Johns River and coast.

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Thursday...Dry airmass in place between weather systems will continue mainly dry conditions under mostly sunny skies with above normal temps reaching into the upper 80s/lower 90s over inland areas with West-Northwest winds at 10-15 mph and East Coast sea breeze remains pinned closer to the Atlantic Coast.

Thursday Night...High clouds slowly increase ahead of next weather system with light SW winds at the surface. Low temps in the 60s inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Dry conditions will continue.

Friday...Moisture levels will continue to slowly increase ahead of the weekend weather system in the low level SW steering flow and this may be just enough to trigger afternoon/evening shower/storm activity along the sea breezes as they move further inland and meet along the US 301 corridor later in the day. Temps continue well above normal in the upper 80s SE GA and lower 90s NE FL with slightly lower values along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

Friday Night...Still some significant model diffs as the faster ECMWF bring in pre-frontal showers/storms in this period while the latest GFS/NAM keeping activity to the NW of the region with mostly dry and humid conditions, so for now have been keeping with model blends which keep scattered showers/isolated storms going through the night with above normal low temps in the lower/middle 70s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Saturday...Next frontal boundary pushes into the region with a return to heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storm potential area-wide and rainfall chances already in the 60-80% range. Above normal temps will continue ahead of the frontal boundary with upper 80s SE GA and still into the lower 90s for NE FL with Heat Indices still close to 100F across NE FL.

Sunday/Monday/Tuesday...Models coming into better agreement that in the wake of departing storm system a drier airmass will push into the region on Northwest flow with limited rainfall chances and temps still slightly above normal but not as hot with Max temps in the 85-90 range and lows 65-70. Some limited moisture return by Monday and Tuesday may lead to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms along sea breeze boundaries but overall below normal rainfall chances are expected.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Patchy fog will dissipate over the next hour or two at KVQQ and KGNV. An area of convection over the NE Gulf of Mexico is starting to fill in and enhance the past hour and will eventually push into the Nature Coast the next hour. The convection will continue to strengthen and increase in areal coverage while pressing into area terminals, particularly south of I-10 across NE FL and north central FL. With stronger storms that occur brief drops in cigs and vsbys may occur with heavy downpours in addition to brief gusty tstm winds and potential for hail between 15z and 20z. GNV and SGJ are will have the highest chances for TSRA as well as strong to severe TSRA, which will last into the late morning to afternoon hours. Some storms could be capable of gusts of 35-55 knots. The heavy rainfall and lower ceilings will also cause periods of MVFR and isolated IFR, as indicated in TEMPO groups.
TSRA and especially strong/severe TSRA threat subsides from north to south at terminals this afternoon and into the evening, with only some isolated SHRA lingering before sunset. VFR is expected to return between 22z and 00z. During the nocturnal hours VFR conditions are anticipated.

MARINE
Issued at 201 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Widespread showers and the potential for strong to severe storms are expected over our local waters through the morning hours.
Stronger storms may produce damaging wind gusts, hail and even waterspouts. Storms and showers will shift southeastward late Wednesday morning as a cold frontal boundary shifts southward through the waters.Conditions will improve from north to south Wednesday afternoon and evening, with breezy westerly winds expected outside of thunderstorms that will gradually subside by Thursday afternoon as weak high pressure moves over the southeastern states. Winds will turn southerly on Friday ahead of the next frontal boundary that will impact our area this weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely impact our local waters from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, with a few strong storms possible. Winds will then shift to northwesterly by Sunday afternoon and night as this front pushes offshore.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues today due to unsettled weather, dropping to low Thursday with generally weakening offshore flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 87 66 88 66 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 88 70 86 72 / 30 0 0 0 JAX 88 68 91 68 / 50 10 0 0 SGJ 87 69 90 69 / 70 0 0 0 GNV 85 66 90 66 / 80 0 0 0 OCF 84 69 90 65 / 90 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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