Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Perry, FL
May 14, 2024 1:46 AM EDT (05:46 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:41 AM Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 11:32 AM Moonset 12:54 AM |
GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 523 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
.tornado watch 236 in effect until 7 pm edt this evening - .
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning - .
Tonight - South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late this evening and overnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms until early morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely late.
Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 5 seconds. Protected waters rough. Showers likely. Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday - West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Wave detail: southwest 4 feet at 6 seconds, becoming southwest 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 523 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis -
multiple rounds of Thunderstorm clusters will traverse the waters through Tuesday, bringing strong to severe wind gusts, possible waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Advisory to near advisory conditions are still expected early Tuesday into at least Wednesday morning. Frontal passage occurs Wednesday afternoon with improving weather from west to east. Cautionary winds and seas are likely until Wednesday evening. A lull in maritime convection is on tap for Thursday, followed by renewed chances for Thunderstorms heading into the weekend.
multiple rounds of Thunderstorm clusters will traverse the waters through Tuesday, bringing strong to severe wind gusts, possible waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Advisory to near advisory conditions are still expected early Tuesday into at least Wednesday morning. Frontal passage occurs Wednesday afternoon with improving weather from west to east. Cautionary winds and seas are likely until Wednesday evening. A lull in maritime convection is on tap for Thursday, followed by renewed chances for Thunderstorms heading into the weekend.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 140522 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 122 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
The MCS that has been moving across the region today has push rain- cooled air across out Alabama, Georgia, and Panhandle counties, including the Gulf waters south of the Panhandle coast. The southeast Big Bend and Lower Suwannee Valley still has convectively untainted air, with Cross City observing a sultry T/Td of 84/70 at 3 pm ET.
Now that we know the exiting MCS pushed an outflow boundary so far south, it will shade the track of the next MCS --- currently over southeast Texas --- further south as well. It will quickly race east this evening and overnight in the base of the shortwave trough spinning over the Ozarks, tracking east along the northern Gulf Coast. The bulk of the severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat early Friday morning will be over our Florida counties and over the Gulf waters. The inland extent will depend on how far north the leftover boundary can rebound northward.
For the Flood Watch, have trimmed it back from our Alabama counties and most southwest Georgia counties, while expanding it through Madison and Lafayette Counties to the Suwannee. In the watch area, an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain is forecast, with spotty amounts of up to 8 inches possible.
SHORT TERM
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
Today's front attendant to its Parent Low is slated to gradually make its eastward exit from the region during the short-term period.
As this boundary does so, it should continue to provide a focus for showers/thunderstorms oriented in SW-NE fashion from Apalachee Bay into the Suwannee Valley & parts of South-Central GA late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Heavy rain appears to be the biggest concern with this activity at the aforementioned locations where training convection is possible. As such, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) is in place by the WPC in their Day 3 Outlook - valid 12Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, either.
Improving weather is expected from NW to SE on Wednesday, which will pave the way for temporarily quiet conditions by Thursday. Forecast high temperatures are mostly in the 80s (isolated 90 degrees) while lows "cool" from upper 60s/near 70 Wednesday AM to mid/upper 60s Thursday AM. The latter is attributed to pre to post-frontal airmass transition.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
A weak upper ridge briefly translates east across the region on Thursday, so expect a convective lull until Friday when yet another storm system moves in from the west. The environment looks favorable for scattered showers/thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe with the capability of producing heavy rainfall. Unsettled weather persists into next weekend as troughing overspreads the Eastern US. However, an upstream ridge building eastward likely ushers improving conditions near the end of the long-term period.
High temperatures in the 80s with lows in the 60s will be common.
The warmest readings are expected Thursday afternoon when modeled upper heights peak at around 584-586 dm. Therefore, look for widespread upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices a few degrees warmer during that time.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
The forecast mostly remains on track as MVFR to IFR cigs have held while an MCS approaches from the west. This system is expected to enter the region shortly and then race through during the early morning hours. Severe weather will possible with this, especially for KECP and KTLH. Behind the MCS, gusty southwest winds and improving cigs are forecast. There could be some residual showers and thunderstorms that try to pop up behind it, but confidence is too low to add anything like that this far out. Instead, hinted at the lowering of cigs sometime after 0Z to 03Z Wed as confidence is slightly higher in that forecast.
MARINE
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
The West Tampa Buoy (42036) reported a south wind around 15 kts with 3-ft seas and a dominant period of 4 sec. Clusters of thunderstorms continue to move through the waters this afternoon. Additionally, coastal observations in the western FL Panhandle have been frequently gusting 25 to 30 kts in response to a wake low from earlier maritime convection.
From CWF Synopsis...Multiple rounds of thunderstorm clusters will traverse the waters through Tuesday, bringing strong to severe wind gusts, possible waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Advisory to near advisory conditions are still expected early Tuesday into at least Wednesday morning. Frontal passage occurs Wednesday afternoon with improving weather from west to east. Cautionary winds and seas are likely until Wednesday evening. A lull in maritime convection is on tap for Thursday, followed by renewed chances for thunderstorms heading into the weekend.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
A couple of additional rounds of thunderstorms will affect the districts through Tuesday, bringing widespread wetting rains, with some flooding possible under downpours. Some thunderstorms could be severe. Drying westerly flow will kick in on Wednesday, when deep mixing heights and moderate transport winds will support high afternoon dispersion.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
The Flood Watch (in effect until Tuesday evening) was updated this afternoon to remove SE AL and most of SW GA with an eastward expansion to include our remaining FL counties, minus Dixie.
Potential for additional waves of heavy rain capable of flash flooding still exist as a lingering frontal boundary slowly translates eastward. Updated forecast amounts through Wednesday are widespread 2-4 inches, isolated 6-8 inches. Highest values are along/south of the I-10 corridor and are well aligned with the WPC Day 2 Slight Risk (level 2 of 4).
Dry weather is expected on Thursday before more rain arrives Friday- Saturday from the next storm system. Another 1 to 2 inches are forecast. The longer-term concerns are riverine flooding, depending on where the heaviest rain ultimately falls. Future rises in the Ochlockonee & Apalachicola basins appear reasonable.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 82 70 89 67 / 70 50 10 0 Panama City 81 72 85 70 / 80 20 10 0 Dothan 82 68 85 64 / 80 10 0 0 Albany 80 68 84 64 / 80 30 10 0 Valdosta 82 70 87 66 / 60 50 20 0 Cross City 85 70 86 67 / 60 80 60 0 Apalachicola 81 74 83 72 / 70 50 20 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112- 114-115-118-127-128.
High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115.
GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ155-156.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ730-755-765-775.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ750-752-770-772.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 122 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
The MCS that has been moving across the region today has push rain- cooled air across out Alabama, Georgia, and Panhandle counties, including the Gulf waters south of the Panhandle coast. The southeast Big Bend and Lower Suwannee Valley still has convectively untainted air, with Cross City observing a sultry T/Td of 84/70 at 3 pm ET.
Now that we know the exiting MCS pushed an outflow boundary so far south, it will shade the track of the next MCS --- currently over southeast Texas --- further south as well. It will quickly race east this evening and overnight in the base of the shortwave trough spinning over the Ozarks, tracking east along the northern Gulf Coast. The bulk of the severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat early Friday morning will be over our Florida counties and over the Gulf waters. The inland extent will depend on how far north the leftover boundary can rebound northward.
For the Flood Watch, have trimmed it back from our Alabama counties and most southwest Georgia counties, while expanding it through Madison and Lafayette Counties to the Suwannee. In the watch area, an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain is forecast, with spotty amounts of up to 8 inches possible.
SHORT TERM
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
Today's front attendant to its Parent Low is slated to gradually make its eastward exit from the region during the short-term period.
As this boundary does so, it should continue to provide a focus for showers/thunderstorms oriented in SW-NE fashion from Apalachee Bay into the Suwannee Valley & parts of South-Central GA late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Heavy rain appears to be the biggest concern with this activity at the aforementioned locations where training convection is possible. As such, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) is in place by the WPC in their Day 3 Outlook - valid 12Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, either.
Improving weather is expected from NW to SE on Wednesday, which will pave the way for temporarily quiet conditions by Thursday. Forecast high temperatures are mostly in the 80s (isolated 90 degrees) while lows "cool" from upper 60s/near 70 Wednesday AM to mid/upper 60s Thursday AM. The latter is attributed to pre to post-frontal airmass transition.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
A weak upper ridge briefly translates east across the region on Thursday, so expect a convective lull until Friday when yet another storm system moves in from the west. The environment looks favorable for scattered showers/thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe with the capability of producing heavy rainfall. Unsettled weather persists into next weekend as troughing overspreads the Eastern US. However, an upstream ridge building eastward likely ushers improving conditions near the end of the long-term period.
High temperatures in the 80s with lows in the 60s will be common.
The warmest readings are expected Thursday afternoon when modeled upper heights peak at around 584-586 dm. Therefore, look for widespread upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices a few degrees warmer during that time.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
The forecast mostly remains on track as MVFR to IFR cigs have held while an MCS approaches from the west. This system is expected to enter the region shortly and then race through during the early morning hours. Severe weather will possible with this, especially for KECP and KTLH. Behind the MCS, gusty southwest winds and improving cigs are forecast. There could be some residual showers and thunderstorms that try to pop up behind it, but confidence is too low to add anything like that this far out. Instead, hinted at the lowering of cigs sometime after 0Z to 03Z Wed as confidence is slightly higher in that forecast.
MARINE
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
The West Tampa Buoy (42036) reported a south wind around 15 kts with 3-ft seas and a dominant period of 4 sec. Clusters of thunderstorms continue to move through the waters this afternoon. Additionally, coastal observations in the western FL Panhandle have been frequently gusting 25 to 30 kts in response to a wake low from earlier maritime convection.
From CWF Synopsis...Multiple rounds of thunderstorm clusters will traverse the waters through Tuesday, bringing strong to severe wind gusts, possible waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Advisory to near advisory conditions are still expected early Tuesday into at least Wednesday morning. Frontal passage occurs Wednesday afternoon with improving weather from west to east. Cautionary winds and seas are likely until Wednesday evening. A lull in maritime convection is on tap for Thursday, followed by renewed chances for thunderstorms heading into the weekend.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
A couple of additional rounds of thunderstorms will affect the districts through Tuesday, bringing widespread wetting rains, with some flooding possible under downpours. Some thunderstorms could be severe. Drying westerly flow will kick in on Wednesday, when deep mixing heights and moderate transport winds will support high afternoon dispersion.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
The Flood Watch (in effect until Tuesday evening) was updated this afternoon to remove SE AL and most of SW GA with an eastward expansion to include our remaining FL counties, minus Dixie.
Potential for additional waves of heavy rain capable of flash flooding still exist as a lingering frontal boundary slowly translates eastward. Updated forecast amounts through Wednesday are widespread 2-4 inches, isolated 6-8 inches. Highest values are along/south of the I-10 corridor and are well aligned with the WPC Day 2 Slight Risk (level 2 of 4).
Dry weather is expected on Thursday before more rain arrives Friday- Saturday from the next storm system. Another 1 to 2 inches are forecast. The longer-term concerns are riverine flooding, depending on where the heaviest rain ultimately falls. Future rises in the Ochlockonee & Apalachicola basins appear reasonable.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 82 70 89 67 / 70 50 10 0 Panama City 81 72 85 70 / 80 20 10 0 Dothan 82 68 85 64 / 80 10 0 0 Albany 80 68 84 64 / 80 30 10 0 Valdosta 82 70 87 66 / 60 50 20 0 Cross City 85 70 86 67 / 60 80 60 0 Apalachicola 81 74 83 72 / 70 50 20 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112- 114-115-118-127-128.
High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115.
GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ155-156.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ730-755-765-775.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ750-752-770-772.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFPY PERRYFOLEY,FL | 15 sm | 11 min | E 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 73°F | 70°F | 89% | 29.86 |
Rock Islands
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:50 AM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:14 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:30 AM EDT 2.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:31 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 11:33 AM EDT 1.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:14 PM EDT 3.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:50 AM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:14 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:30 AM EDT 2.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:31 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 11:33 AM EDT 1.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:14 PM EDT 3.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Rock Islands, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.7 |
| 6 am |
| 2.1 |
| 7 am |
| 2.3 |
| 8 am |
| 2.3 |
| 9 am |
| 2.2 |
| 10 am |
| 2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 3 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:49 AM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:13 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:24 AM EDT 2.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:31 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 11:32 AM EDT 1.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:08 PM EDT 3.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:49 AM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:13 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:24 AM EDT 2.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:31 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 11:32 AM EDT 1.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:08 PM EDT 3.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Spring Warrior Creek, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.7 |
| 6 am |
| 2.1 |
| 7 am |
| 2.3 |
| 8 am |
| 2.3 |
| 9 am |
| 2.1 |
| 10 am |
| 2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 3 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Tallahassee, FL,
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