Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Perry, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:01PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 4:20 AM EST (09:20 UTC) Moonrise 7:05AMMoonset 5:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 313 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable winds, then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth.
Friday..Northeast winds around 5 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable winds. Seas 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth.
Friday night..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the late evening. 2 feet or less then 1 foot or less after midnight. Protected waters smooth.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots until late afternoon becoming light and variable winds. Seas 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 313 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis.. Northerly winds will increase tonight through Wednesday behind a cold front, and as a result seas will become choppy. A small craft advisory has been issued from late tonight through early Thursday morning. Winds and seas will decrease on Thursday, and become light from Thursday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Perry, FL
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location: 29.97, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 160811
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
311 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Near term [through today]
We'll see a gradual increase in cloud cover today as the arctic cold
front approaches with all of its interesting weather. We won't see
any of that stuff until tonight into Wednesday though with today
remaining dry. Highs are expected to be mainly in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Short term [tonight through Thursday]
The potent axis of a deep upper level trough, along with a strong
jet streak just to its southeast, will swing southeastward across
our area tonight into Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front
will quickly push southeastward through our area tonight, with
strong cold air advection in its wake dropping temperatures into
the 20s and lower 30s across the northwestern half of our area.

The combination of the cold air with enhanced lift associated with
strong upper dynamics (pv advection downstream of the trough axis
and favorable location under right entrance region of strong jet
streak) may result in post-frontal wintry precipitation in these
areas. The maximum temperature throughout the column will be near
or below freezing across most of this area, which should result in
the precipitation type changing to mostly all snow by early
Wednesday morning, especially NW of a line from panama city, fl to
albany, ga.

Models still disagree somewhat on QPF totals for this event. The
gfs and NAM only show (at most) a few hundredths of an inch liquid
equivalent for mainly our northwestern areas, while the ECMWF and
some WRF runs show QPF near slightly exceeding 0.1" liquid
equivalent far nw, and 0.01" or greater extending farther se
toward the fl big bend and south central ga. Using a solution in
between these two extremes, and a snow liquid equivalent ratio
around 10:1 (with lows dropping well into the 20s in our
northwestern areas, snow should not be as wet as usual for our
area), have forecast snow totals around 1 2" in coffee county, al
gradually tapering off farther se. Have included 0.1" totals as
far south SE as a line from coastal walton county, fl through
bainbridge, ga and near fitzgerald, ga. As a result, a winter
weather advisory has been issued for SE alabama, much of sw
georgia, and the fl panhandle for late Tuesday night through early
Wednesday. Some flurries cannot be ruled out farther southeast,
but no accumulation is expected for the fl big bend and areas
around valdosta, ga at this time.

In addition to the winter weather advisory, a wind chill advisory
has been issued for most of the same areas (se alabama, most of sw
georgia, fl panhandle) from late tonight through early Wednesday.

Apparent temperatures could reach the mid-upper teens in these
locations, with 20s and lower 30s farther SE across our area. As
precipitation comes to an end, persistent cold air advection under
northwesterly flow will result in highs only reaching mid-upper
30s across areas NW of tallahassee and valdosta, with 40s farther
se. Temperatures will drop into the lower 20s for most of our area
by early Thursday morning, with even a few upper teens possible at
far NW locations. As a result, a hard freeze watch has been issued
for northwestern counties during the early morning on Thursday.

With light winds around 5 mph, wind chills will drop below 20
across our area, and possibly into the single digits in our far nw
counties, so another wind chill advisory will likely be issued for
our area late tonight through tomorrow morning. Temperatures will
rebound a bit more on Thursday than they did Wednesday as clear
skies and light winds prevail, with highs ranging from the mid 40s
to near 50.

Long term [Thursday night through Tuesday]
A pattern change will occur from Friday into the weekend as the
upper trough moves eastward and deep layer ridging builds over our
area. As a result, temperatures will gradually become warmer,
with highs rising into the 50s on Friday, lower-mid 60s on
Saturday, and upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday. Rain chances will
increase from Sunday into Monday, as moisture builds ahead of a
longwave upper trough and a cold front moves eastward across our
area on Monday. Slightly cooler and drier air will return behind
the front from Monday night into Tuesday.

Aviation [through 06z Wednesday]
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Late
in the period, a cold front will push into the region with gusty
northwest winds starting at dhn, aby, and ecp.

Marine
Northerly winds will increase tonight through Wednesday behind a
cold front, and as a result seas will become choppy. A small craft
advisory has been issued from late tonight through early Thursday
morning. Winds and seas will decrease on Thursday, and become
light from Thursday night through Saturday.

Fire weather
Drier air will move into the area by Wednesday with gusty winds. We
may meet red flag criteria across portions of the florida panhandle
and big bend with min rh values potentially less than 28 percent
coupled with erc values of 26 or higher and 20 foot winds of 15 mph
or greater. Thus, a fire weather watch has been issued for those
counties. After Wednesday, red flag conditions are unlikely for the
remainder of the week.

Hydrology
Light snow and mixed precipitation is possible late tonight
through early Wednesday for our northern and western areas, but
qpf amounts will be very light. Dry conditions will then persist
for the following few days. As a result, no flooding is expected
and drought conditions will persist.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 62 34 40 23 49 0 10 10 0 0
panama city 60 33 40 26 47 0 20 10 0 0
dothan 58 24 35 21 46 0 50 10 0 0
albany 58 29 37 22 46 0 30 20 0 0
valdosta 60 36 40 22 47 0 10 20 0 0
cross city 64 42 47 22 50 0 0 0 0 0
apalachicola 60 37 42 26 48 0 10 10 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm est 9 pm cst this evening
to 1 pm est noon cst Wednesday for calhoun-central walton-
coastal bay-holmes-inland bay-jackson-north walton-south
walton-washington.

Hard freeze watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for calhoun-central walton-gadsden-holmes-inland
bay-jackson-liberty-north walton-washington.

Wind chill advisory from 1 am est midnight cst to 1 pm est
noon cst Wednesday for calhoun-central walton-coastal bay-
coastal gulf-gadsden-holmes-inland bay-inland gulf-jackson-
liberty-north walton-south walton-washington.

Ga... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Wednesday for baker-ben hill-berrien-calhoun-clay-colquitt-
cook-decatur-dougherty-early-grady-irwin-lee-miller-
mitchell-quitman-randolph-seminole-terrell-thomas-tift-
turner-worth.

Hard freeze watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for baker-calhoun-clay-decatur-dougherty-early-lee-
miller-mitchell-quitman-randolph-seminole-terrell.

Wind chill advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Wednesday for baker-
ben hill-calhoun-clay-colquitt-decatur-dougherty-early-
grady-irwin-lee-miller-mitchell-quitman-randolph-seminole-
terrell-thomas-tift-turner-worth.

Al... Winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to noon cst
Wednesday for coffee-dale-geneva-henry-houston.

Hard freeze watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for coffee-dale-geneva-henry-houston.

Wind chill advisory from midnight tonight to noon cst Wednesday
for coffee-dale-geneva-henry-houston.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 1 am Wednesday to 7 am est Thursday
for coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola
fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from mexico beach to
apalachicola fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from mexico beach
to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm-waters from
suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters
from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl
from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Dvd
short term... Lahr
long term... Lahr
aviation... Dvd
marine... Lahr
fire weather... Dvd
hydrology... Lahr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 16 mi81 min N 1.9 G 4.1 38°F 1029.4 hPa (+0.4)
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 25 mi87 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 42°F 1029.3 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 57 mi96 min N 4.1 39°F 34°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Perry-Foley, Perry-Foley Airport, FL15 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair33°F31°F94%1030.1 hPa

Wind History from 40J (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3CalmN5NE4NE6NE7N9NE6NE7NE5N5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN5N5N3N4N6N4N8N6N7N7N7N9N9NE6N3N3CalmCalmN4N4N4NE3CalmN3
2 days agoNW10
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NW9NW8NW6NW9N5CalmCalmNW3NW4N7N6N5N6N4

Tide / Current Tables for Rock Islands, Florida
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Rock Islands
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:01 AM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:07 AM EST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:20 PM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:50 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:46 PM EST     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.72.92.72.31.60.80.1-0.4-0.7-0.500.81.62.32.62.62.21.71.20.90.81.11.52

Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:55 AM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:06 AM EST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:14 PM EST     2.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:45 PM EST     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.72.82.72.21.60.80.1-0.5-0.7-0.500.81.72.32.62.52.21.71.20.90.81.11.52.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.