Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Violet, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:36PM Sunday August 20, 2017 7:49 PM CDT (00:49 UTC) Moonrise 5:12AMMoonset 6:56PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 356 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 20 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..North winds near 5 knots becoming east early in the afternoon, then becoming south late in the afternoon. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast late in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds near 5 knots becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 356 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will remain over the coastal waters through mid-week. A weak cold front will approach the coast from the north Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA
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location: 29.97, -89.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 202038
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
338 pm cdt Sun aug 20 2017

Short term
A strong upper level low pushing westward across the gulf of
mexico will be the main feature driving the weather forecast
through Tuesday. Through tomorrow, some increased mid-level
subsidence and drier air will keep a lid on most convective
potential. Expect to see a mainly clear and dry night in place
tonight. Temperatures will be very close to seasonal norms
overnight with lows cooling into the middle to upper 70s. Limited
mid-level moisture will persist into tomorrow morning, and have
limited pop of around 10 to 20 percent through the morning hours.

Cloud development should also remain fairly suppressed through the
morning hours. However, heading into the afternoon, some mid-level
moisture will begin to push in from the east as the upper level
trough axis passes through the cwa. As the trough axis continues
to push westward, the region will see deeper moisture and more
favorable forcing take hold in the mid-levels. As a result, expect
to see widely scattered showers and thunderstorms develop by the
late afternoon hours over much of the forecast area. Temperatures
will easily climb into the lower to middle 90s before this
convection begins to develop.

Tomorrow night will see the impacts of the deeper tropical
moisture advecting into the area along with increased forcing on
the eastern side of the trough axis. Expect to see scattered
convection persist through the overnight hours in the coastal
waters with most convective activity dissipating over inland areas
due to the loss of daytime heating and instability. However, the
surge of deep tropical moisture will result in much earlier
convective development on Tuesday. Expect to see scattered showers
and thunderstorms develop from late morning through the afternoon
hours. Temperatures should also be a couple of degrees cooler due
to the increase in cloud cover from the scattered thunderstorm
activity.

Long term
Wednesday will see two features affecting the area. The tut low
progressing westward into the western gulf will continue to pump
a plume of deep tropical moisture into the CWA resulting in
continued higher than average rain chances. At the same time, a
frontal boundary will begin to move into the lower mississippi
valley from the northern plains and midwest. Expect to see higher
rain chances with these two features converging over the area, and
have pop values of 50 to 60 percent for Wednesday afternoon.

Temperatures should climb to near average readings around 90
degrees before the convection fully develops. As daytime heating
wanes Wednesday convection should turn isolated. However, do not
expect to see all of the convection dissipate since the frontal
boundary will continue to push toward the forecast area.

For the latter part of the week, from Thursday through Saturday,
a broad and fairly weak upper level ridge will take hold of the
forecast area. However, this ridge will not be strong enough to
dry out the atmosphere or cap off convective potential. At the
same time, the frontal boundary will turn stationary along the
northern gulf coast by Thursday and remain parked over the region
through the upcoming weekend. Ample moisture pooling and forcing
along this frontal boundary will keep elevated rain chances in the
forecast each day. Have placed rain chances of 50 to 60 percent in
the forecast from late morning through the afternoon hours each
day. The convection should turn more isolated during the overnight
hours as temperatures fall into the 70s and instability values
decrease. Temperatures will generally be near or slightly below
normal during the day and near normal at night during the extended
forecast period. 32

Aviation
Convection has been extremely limited with relatively drier air over
the region.VFR conditions expected to persist though some light
radiational fog may attempt to develop by daybreak in some low lying
areas. Given soils able to dry somewhat today, fog formation may
more limited than this past morning. 24 rr

Marine
High pressure influences over the north gulf will maintain generally
light winds and low seas for much of the forecast period outside
occasional nocturnal convection associated with land breezes.

24 rr

Decision support
Dss code... Blue.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... Metwatch for nohsep.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch warning advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch warning advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate tonight risk svr
and or direct tropical threats; events of national
significance

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 74 92 73 92 10 30 10 30
btr 75 93 76 91 10 30 10 40
asd 76 92 76 92 10 20 20 40
msy 78 91 78 90 10 20 20 50
gpt 77 90 77 91 10 20 20 30
pql 76 91 76 91 10 20 20 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

32


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 7 mi49 min SE 6 G 8 88°F 92°F1016.6 hPa (+0.7)
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 22 mi49 min ENE 2.9 G 6 91°F 89°F1016.2 hPa (+0.6)
CARL1 23 mi49 min 85°F
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 27 mi59 min SSE 1.9 G 5.8 88°F 1016.6 hPa (+0.6)76°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 32 mi49 min S 4.1 G 6 87°F 87°F1016.5 hPa (+0.6)
FREL1 39 mi49 min E 4.1 G 5.1 89°F 1015.3 hPa (+0.6)76°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 40 mi49 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 90°F 92°F1016.4 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi56 minESE 610.00 miFair91°F73°F56%1015.5 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi1.9 hrsESE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F75°F59%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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CalmE3SW3SW3NW3S3E4CalmE6E6E7E5NE7NE6NE5NE6N8N6N4E7E7E6E6
1 day agoW4S9SW9SW11SW6SW8W11W12W14NW13NW9NW10NW9NW11NW8NW8NW6NW6W6NW5N6NE21E5SE4
2 days agoS8S8S9S8SW8W9W13W10W9W10W9W8W8NW8NW8W8NW9NW9NW8W5W3W4NW5W4

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:50 AM CDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:11 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:29 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:49 PM CDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:55 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.10.20.30.40.60.811.21.31.51.71.81.81.71.61.51.31.10.90.70.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Chef Menteur
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:27 AM CDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:11 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:29 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:36 PM CDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.30.50.60.80.911.21.31.41.41.41.41.31.10.90.70.50.30.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.