Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Violet, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:55PM Saturday May 27, 2017 6:54 AM CDT (11:54 UTC) Moonrise 7:56AMMoonset 10:03PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 339 Am Cdt Sat May 27 2017
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..Northwest winds near 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 339 Am Cdt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will remain centered over the eastern gulf of mexico through the middle of next week. On Monday and Tuesday...a weak front will stall along the louisiana and mississippi coast before dissipating by Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA
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location: 29.97, -89.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 270837
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
337 am cdt Sat may 27 2017

Short term
Cold front well to the north of the area is moving slowly
southward and should be in the vicinity of texarkana to ne
arkansas by this evening. A few very strong explosive areas of
severe thunderstorms are expected to develop just north of that
line and move slowly south this afternoon. Outflows from these
storms should move southward through a less dense environment this
evening and reach the natchez area just after dark. The first of
many sea breezes should also be in this general vicinity after
dark as well. An area of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
could form along a line from alexandria to natchez this evening.

A strong inversion should hold for our area through Sunday
morning keeping chances of sh TS at low levels. After noon
Sunday, that inversion weakens but is not destroyed. This will
make any thunderstorms capable of breaking this cap and developing
late Sunday afternoon and evening have a better chance of
becoming severe. The frontal boundary and sea breeze will also
clash along the alexadria to natchez line, but this time, the
sh TS will begin to make a slow march southward into the northern
portion of the area which may also help chances of producing a
severe thunderstorm or two. Upper jet influences should also be
capable of developing another area of sh TS along the coastal
areas from corpus to near new orleans during this same time frame.

The front stalls Sunday evening over the area and becomes very
diffuse at the sfc. The 850mb reflection remains and this boundary
along with daily sea breeze collisions will maintain a daily
barrage of sh ts. Some or these could be strong during peak
heating the remainder of the week. But the best time frame for
receiving a strong or severe thunderstorm looks to be Sunday
afternoon through Monday. SPC has the entire area under marginal
risk for Sunday and Sunday night. Marginal to slight risk looks to
be a good bet starting noon Sunday through Monday.

There is no focused deep moisture fetch to any one area along the
stalled boundary but instead is spread over a large area. Without
this concentration of deep moisture, flooding issues are not
expected through the end of the work week for our area. Although,
if any certain location falls under two or three of these
thunederstorms, there can always be the potential to see some
minor flooding.

Long term
We should begin to see a deeper tropical moist fetch from the
southern gulf into the texas coastal bend starting Thursday. This
is not uncommon this time of year and houston as well as other
surrounding areas have been known to take on extensive flooding
issues from some of these scenarios over past years. Models are in
disagreement of which way to resolve the tropical wave issue by
next weekend. The GFS would like to keep a steady flow into the
houston area but spread this fetch eastward into our area by the
weekend. The euro stills wants to develp a weak system over the nw
gulf. The synoptic field can be better resolved from these global
suites and so the deep moist fetch from the southern gulf through
the texas coast into the center of the country has a little more
credence than these models trying to develop a mesoscale
disturbance.

In short, higher chances of rain look to be in the fcast again by
next weekend and this will be shown in the extended. But as for
the mesoscale development, there needs to be a strongly concerted
and successive effort by both model suites, if not more models,
agreeing on this scenario before it can be set as a part of the
fcast, especially in the extended.

Aviation
MVFR ceilings will linger overall of the terminals through around 15
to 16z this morning. The ceilings should improve intoVFR range
after 16z, and remain so through at least 00z. By 06z, another
round of MVFR ceilings should be in place at most of the terminals.

Marine
A fairly benign weather pattern for the coastal waters through the
period as a broad area of high pressure remains centered over the
eastern gulf of mexico and florida through the middle of next week.

A general onshore wind of around 10 knots and seas of around 2 to 3
feet can be expected in the open waters. Closer to the coast in the
sounds and tidal lakes, waves of 1 to 2 feet and lighter winds of 5
to 10 knots are expected through tomorrow. On Monday and Tuesday, a
weak front will stall near these waters resulting in variable winds
of 5 knots or less. Thunderstorm activity will also be possible
during this time, and these storms could produce locally stronger
winds for brief periods of time. By Wednesday, the front should be
dissipated and general onshore flow of 5 to 10 knots should be
reinstated. 32

Decision support
Dss code... Blue.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... Monitoring flooding along the mississippi and
pearl rivers.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch warning advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch warning advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate tonight risk svr
and or direct tropical threats; events of national
significance

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 89 73 89 70 10 10 20 40
btr 91 74 90 71 10 10 20 40
asd 88 74 89 72 10 10 10 30
msy 89 75 89 75 10 10 10 30
gpt 87 75 87 75 10 10 10 30
pql 87 73 87 74 10 10 10 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 7 mi54 min S 7 G 9.9 77°F 80°F1015.6 hPa (+0.8)
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 22 mi54 min S 7 G 9.9 78°F 79°F1015.5 hPa (+1.0)
CARL1 23 mi54 min 73°F
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 27 mi64 min S 1.9 G 1.9 76°F 1016.1 hPa (+0.8)75°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 32 mi54 min SSW 2.9 G 7 77°F 78°F1015.8 hPa (+1.0)
FREL1 39 mi54 min S 2.9 G 4.1 77°F 1014.5 hPa (+0.9)75°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 40 mi54 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 77°F 81°F1015.6 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi61 minS 910.00 miOvercast78°F75°F90%1014.9 hPa
New Orleans, Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi59 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S12S13
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S15S14S14S10S13S13SE13SE10S11S11S11S12S8S10S9S9S9S9S10S9S9
1 day agoSW6SW7W5NW6NW6NW7NW7N9N7N6N4NE4NE4CalmS9S11S10S7S8S9S9S8S8S7
2 days agoNW23NW18NW20NW22NW16W13W18NW16W19
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NW19NW18NW15NW14NW13NW12NW10SW7SW9SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:55 AM CDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:56 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:41 PM CDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:02 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.711.21.41.61.71.71.71.51.31.10.80.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Chef Menteur
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:29 AM CDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:56 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:12 PM CDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:03 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.20.30.50.70.91.11.21.41.51.51.51.41.210.80.50.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.