Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Violet, LA

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:04PM Thursday June 20, 2019 7:05 PM CDT (00:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:54PMMoonset 8:50AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 359 Pm Cdt Thu Jun 20 2019
.small craft exercise caution in effect from 7 pm this evening to midnight cdt tonight...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..South winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas subsiding to 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds after midnight.
Saturday..South winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas building to 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..South winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers through the day.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 359 Pm Cdt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis..General troughing will remain to the northwest while high pressure stays over the east coast. A surface high will eventually move over the northern gulf by the start of the work week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA
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location: 29.97, -89.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 202101
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
401 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
Latest surface analysis showed a 1017mb high over south florida,
florida straits, and east half of the gulf. An associated ridge
axis extended to north central gulf. In addition, trough axis
remains over the eastern colorado plains. These two features have
created a relatively tight pressure gradient across east texas,
louisiana, and mississippi. This feature resulted in a moderate
southerly wind across the region and coastal waters this
afternoon. Precipitable water plots on the planer view at 12z this
morning revealed values around 1.7 inches over louisiana and
mississippi.

Upper air analysis at 500mb showed a progressive pattern with a
trough axis from the great lakes to ohio valley. Temperatures at
5h were -6c above the forecast area. In addition, a deep upper
level low was revealed the northern rockies. 18

Discussion
Dry layer at 5h will remain in play through Friday and 5h temps
will slightly decrease to -7c and possibly -8c on Friday. Ergo, a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is possible across the
north half of the forecast area Friday afternoon. With that said,
temps and dewpoint readings will yield heat index values well
above the century mark across the forecast area Friday, Saturday
and possibly Sunday. Therefore, heat advisories may be issued
each afternoon for part or all of the forecast area.

Upper level winds shift to the southwest in anticipation of the
storm system over the rockies and central plains. Slightly
deeper moisture in the mid layers on Sunday will transition into
a more typical isolated afternoon summer convection regime. As
this storm system lifts to the great lakes, the associated
moisture axis will press south across north louisiana and central
mississippi Monday into Tuesday. The close proximity of this
feature will increase rain chances across the north half of the
forecast area Monday through Wednesday. As this storm system
lifts across the great lakes region and northeast, a ridge axis
will develop over the plains and create a weakness across the
central gulf coast late next week. Moisture and east to northeast
flow will develop over the area and elevated rain chances are
possible for this period. 18

Aviation
Through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening
vfr conditions will likely persist. After midnight low clouds will
start to build and work into the region. Most locations will likely
be impacted at some point by MVFR CIGS while a few may even drop
temporarily to ifr. Low CIGS should improve a few hours after
sunrise. Cab

Marine
A surface high over south florida will expand and build westward
over the next few days. Onshore flow will continue through the
period as a result. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible
but much drier conditions through late week as upper ridging
becomes more pronounced over our area. Winds are expected to
remain elevated this evening and finally decrease by Friday
morning. Winds will begin to relax by the weekend... Remaining
onshore as a surface high and upper level ridge build in overhead.

Decision support
Dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: river flood warnings
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 93 75 93 76 10 10 20 0
btr 93 78 95 78 10 10 10 0
asd 93 77 95 76 20 10 20 0
msy 92 80 94 79 10 10 10 0
gpt 90 79 94 78 20 10 20 10
pql 92 78 94 76 10 10 20 10

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Heat advisory until 6 pm cdt this evening for laz034>037-039-040-
046>050-056>072.

Gm... None.

Ms... Heat advisory until 6 pm cdt this evening for msz077-080>082.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 7 mi53 min SW 14 G 18 88°F 88°F1012.8 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 22 mi47 min SSW 7 G 14
CARL1 23 mi47 min 79°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 32 mi53 min SW 8 G 14 88°F 87°F1012.6 hPa
FREL1 39 mi47 min SSW 5.1 G 11 89°F 1011.2 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 40 mi47 min SSW 6 G 8.9

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi12 minSW 137.00 miFair89°F77°F68%1011.6 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi10 minSSW 1410.00 miA Few Clouds88°F78°F73%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS9S8S7SW8SW9SW9SW9SW9SW6SW4SW7S8SW7W8W7NW5NW7NW7CalmN7SW10SW10SW12SW15
2 days agoE7SE9SE8SE5SE8SE4SE6SE7S10S10S5S7SW23
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G28
SW7W3SW9SW4S7S9

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:59 AM CDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:50 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:41 PM CDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:53 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.20.30.50.70.91.11.31.41.51.51.51.41.210.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:57 AM CDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:51 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:28 PM CDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:54 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.100.10.30.50.60.811.11.21.31.31.31.210.80.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.