Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Violet, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:02PM Monday December 10, 2018 7:00 PM CST (01:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:24AMMoonset 9:04PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 243 Pm Cst Mon Dec 10 2018
.small craft exercise caution in effect from 6 pm cst this evening through late tonight...
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..West winds near 5 knots becoming southeast in the late evening. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 243 Pm Cst Mon Dec 10 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will build across the central gulf coast through Tuesday before shifting east of the area on Wednesday. A cold front will sweep across the coastal waters late Thursday and Thursday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA
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location: 29.97, -89.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 102201
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
401 pm cst Mon dec 10 2018

Discussion
Really only two weather concerns in the 7 day forecast
period... Low temperatures tonight and thunderstorm heavy rain
threat with the frontal system later this week.

Regarding tonight, expect temperatures to plummet after sunset as
clear skies, light winds and low dewpoints allow for efficient
radiative cooling. Expect to see widespread freezing temperatures
across the area. Temps forecast to bottom out in the upper 20s and
lower 30s along north of the i-10 12 corridor and generally in the
mid to upper 30s south of the tidal lakes. Where it gets a little
tricky is through the river parishes and along the west bank of
the mississippi river through the south shore. One thing is fairly
certain... And that is that the more urban areas should remain
above freezing. All of the available guidance even suggests belle
chasse, which is one of the typically colder spots, will remain
just above freezing. However, the swath from houma up to the river
and nortwestward will likely hit freezing for a few hours near
daybreak. Per local policy, freeze warnings are issued for every
freeze across areas for areas from donaldsonville to lake
pontchartrain and southward. This means that a freeze warning will
be issued for assumption, st. James, st. John, st. Charles, upper
terrebonne and upper lafourche from 3am until 8am tomorrow
morning.

Temps should rise fairly quickly in the morning once the Sun comes
up. Expect highs in the mid to upper 50s. Lows should be a few
degrees warmer tomorrow night, bottoming out in the mid 30s north
and the upper 30s and lower 40s south.

Return flow starts to kick in on Wednesday as high pressure shifts
eastward and winds turn southerly ahead of a vigorous frontal
system taking shape over the plains states. Models remain in
fairly good agreement with respect to timing on this system, but
still have differences in both the intensity and placement of the
surface and upper lows. GFS continues to have the deeper and
farther north solution. Again, while these differences will affect
some nuances of the forecast, the overall pattern is fairly
similar and a general blend of the guidance has been used for our
local weather.

Both the GFS and the euro indicate a vigorous trough will dive
southward Wednesday night into Thursday morning causing a surface
low to deepen over texas as it moves eastward toward the middle
mississippi valley. The tightening pressure gradient should result
in stronger winds, locally which will help pump gulf moisture
back into the area. Dewpoints are forecast to recover into the low
to 60s by Thursday afternoon. There still appears to be a fair
amount of instability and lift along the front as it passes
through the area late Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening.

Depending on how the exact details of this system play out, there
could be a squall line along ahead of the front. There will likely
be a non-negligible severe weather threat with this system, but
for the time being, the probability of severe weather is below the
threshold to be included in spc's severe weather outlook. The
system definitely bears continued monitoring over the next few
days as details become clearer.

Behind the front, both models suggest wrap around moisture will
keep things cloudy with some lingering showers into Friday, so
will maintain the 20 to 30 percent pops for Friday and Friday
afternoon. Of note, this kind of stacked and well-developed system
will typically include a dry slot feature, so as the details of
the dry slot feature become clearer, pop forecasts may need to be
adjusted. Behind the front, expect temperatures to fall to near or
just below normal for this time of year through the weekend.

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected for all TAF sites through Wednesday
00z.

Marine
Cold air advection will decrease this evening and overnight.

However, north winds will increase slightly this evening through
midnight and ease after 2am Tuesday morning. Surface high pressure
system becomes more centered over the deep south. As a result,
winds will decrease early Tuesday and continue subsiding through
Wednesday. In addition, wind direction will veer from the north to
the southeast during this period and seas will subside as well.

Another strong storm system will begin to affect the waters Thursday
into Thursday with south and southwest winds increasing back into
the 20 to 25 knot range and seas climbing back above 7 feet over the
gulf waters and sounds. Due to the close proximity of the surface
low and deep upper level low over the deep south, strong westerly
winds are expected Thursday night through Saturday morning and a
period of gale force winds may develop as the strong storm system
pulls away from the region. West to northwest winds will finally
ease to 10 to 15 knots by late Saturday night.

Decision support
Dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: small craft advisory.

Widespread freezing conditions tonight.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rain; direct tropical threats; events of national
significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 28 57 34 63 0 0 0 0
btr 29 56 36 64 0 0 0 0
asd 30 56 34 64 0 0 0 0
msy 35 54 40 65 0 0 0 10
gpt 32 55 37 62 0 0 0 0
pql 32 57 34 65 0 0 0 0

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Freeze warning from 3 am to 8 am cst Tuesday for laz056>060-065.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for gmz532-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for gmz536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Aviation marine... 18
rest of discussion... 95 dm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 7 mi31 min W 8.9 G 9.9 49°F 56°F1025.6 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 22 mi31 min NW 2.9 G 8.9 52°F 56°F1025.9 hPa
CARL1 23 mi31 min 48°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 32 mi31 min NNW 12 G 13 50°F 55°F1025.3 hPa
FREL1 39 mi31 min NW 1.9 G 5.1 1025.4 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 40 mi31 min WNW 5.1 G 7 47°F 55°F1026.6 hPa

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi68 minNW 1310.00 miFair52°F36°F55%1024.8 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi66 minWNW 410.00 miFair50°F30°F46%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE13E15E14E14E14E14E13E15E16E15E15E16E13E12E10E11E10SE14S15
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Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:09 AM CST     1.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:23 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:00 PM CST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:59 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:04 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.21.31.41.31.31.10.90.70.50.20-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.100.20.30.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:56 AM CST     1.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:25 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:58 PM CST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:00 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:05 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.911.11.21.110.90.80.60.40.20-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.100.20.30.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.