Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 12:30 AM   Moonset 10:30 AM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 257 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am cdt this morning - ..small craft exercise caution in effect from 9 am cdt this morning through this evening - .
Today - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots easing to 15 knots during the morning. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms this morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely this afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Tuesday - West winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Friday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 257 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
small craft advisory headlines will be lowered this morning as winds ease. But strong winds may occur with storms mainly this morning. After this system moves through today, the rest of the week should be relatively benign with light onshore flow.

FXUS64 KLIX 290754 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 254 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Severe TS watch for the NW valid now until 14z(9am).

Winds will begin to weaken today dropping below advisory thresholds.
But there will still be gusts to 25mph at times and even higher winds up to 40mph associated with the line of storms moving into the area from the west with a few areas along this line possibly severe.
All severe wx modes will be possible and heavy rainfall will accompany as well. The line will begin to speed up as it moves toward the area this morning. Rain rates along the whole line will be 2 to 4 inches per hour. Even though progressive for most areas, there could still be a quick 1 to 2 inches that could overwhelm low lying and poor drainage areas. Totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts will be possible with this system. It will likely be a rainy day for most of the day for most of the area as a shield of light to moderate rain develops in the wake of this system and lingers into the early evening hours. As the gradient winds back off, it will cause the coastal flood advisory footprint to become smaller and wind relative headlines will begin to fall over the next 24 hours.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The scenario of fronts moving as far east as Dallas and stalling only to retrograde will continue. This doesn't change a lot locally for much of the upcoming week, but there is a possibility that this front gets oriented east/west and stalls near our area by the end of the week. We will need to see how this plays out through the week but it could bring another good chance of rain to the area.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Mostly MVFR cigs this today but vis will move in and out of IFR levels as there will be +TSRA at most if not all sites today and this will be timed in the 12z taf set. Lingering -SHRA will continue thorugh several hours after the strongest storms move through and no breaks to the MVFR cigs are expected. Tonight cigs are expected to drop to VFR and possibly to LIFR levels after midnight. Winds will be a bit weaker today but will some gusts to around 20kt will be possible.

MARINE
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Strong SE winds(20-25kt) will begin to weaken today over all marine areas. Small craft advisories will be lowered by mid morning and caution statements will take their place. Winds should continue to ease tonight into Tuesday falling to around the 5-10kt range. Winds will remain out of the SE through this fcast but should remain around 10kt for the most part.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 78 61 84 64 / 100 50 30 10 BTR 82 67 88 69 / 100 40 40 10 ASD 83 64 85 67 / 90 50 40 10 MSY 83 68 84 71 / 90 50 40 10 GPT 81 66 83 67 / 70 60 40 10 PQL 83 65 84 65 / 60 60 30 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086-087.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

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Shell Beach
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Mon -- 12:30 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:56 AM CDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:30 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:20 PM CDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:18 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:54 AM CDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:31 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:07 PM CDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:36 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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