Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 3:34 PM   Moonset 3:15 AM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 1026 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Rest of today - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning and early afternoon. Tonight - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest around 5 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 1026 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
a cold front is currently moving southward through our waters. Thunderstorms along this boundary will bring the threat of locally strong winds, large hail, and higher seas. Southwesterly winds south of the front will subside and shift out of the northwest in wake of the cold frontal passage. High pressure builds in Sunday and remains over the waters through much of next week.

FXUS64 KLIX 181724 AAC AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1224 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

NEW AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1022 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Locally, convection continues to drift eastward generally offshore. The latest infrared satellite imagery shows cloud tops warming quickly with the convective complex over the Gulf. Indeed, rainfall rates and overall decay of the MCS has been the trend of the last hour or two. One small cluster of storms still resides over Terrebonne Bay at the time of this discussion. This too should decrease overtime as much of the forcing continues downstream. So far, CAMs have done well capturing the exit of the convection...so will allow them to lead the POP/QPF near term through early afternoon. Outside of this, no real adjustments were made in the midpoint outside of dropping the FFA as well as adding fog overnight tonight in the fog favored spots across MS and the FL Parishes of LA. With the wet soils think radiation fog may develop, especially if we clear out overnight. That would be the main limiting factor, which is still pretty low confidence...so we'll mention patchy fog for now until a stronger signal is realized between now and Sunday AM. (Frye)

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Frontal boundary, such as it is, is likely somewhere near or south of a Hattiesburg to Baton Rouge to Lake Charles line. Dew points south of that line are well into the 70s, while in the 60s to the north. Most of the strong thunderstorms remain over the Gulf of Mexico this morning, but there is a band of storms over the Gulf to the south of Lake Charles, that if they continue their current northeastward movement, could produce a training scenario producing heavy rainfall over portions of the Flood Watch area over the next 6 hours. Precipitable water value on the special 03Z LIX sounding was still 1.87 inches, so heavy rainfall still a concern. For this reason, plan to hold onto the watch until expiration, unless rain moves out of the area sooner. Pretty much all guidance has rain moving offshore in the 15z-18z window or sooner with the trough axis shifting to the east of the area. May take until late afternoon or early evening to completely clear, however. Beyond sunset this evening, the only real concern for the remainder of the short term forecast period will be the potential for some patchy radiation type fog around sunrise Sunday.

The rather wet ground may aid in the development of a cumulus field across the area on Sunday, but shouldn't have a major impact on temperatures. As temperature guidance is fairly well clustered, won't depart from the NBM numbers.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Upper ridging that will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Sunday will continue to work eastward into the Lower Mississippi River Valley at midweek, and remain over the northern Gulf through the end of the week. A shortwave may suppress it somewhat southward by Thursday or Friday, but it still appears that significant precipitation will be hard to come by through the end of the work week next week after this morning's rain. Unlikely to be much in the way of change in temperatures from day to day during the workweek, with readings generally 3 to 5 degrees above normal.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Mostly VFR with a few isolated pockets of MVFR CIGS to start this cycle. VFR should win out later this afternoon and evening. VIS reductions will be possible for most terminals with the lowest VIS for the fog favored locations such as MCB and HUM. This should lift quickly after sunrise Sunday morning leading to VFR conditions to end the cycle. Winds will continue to remain mostly light and variable. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Will cancel the Small Craft Advisory with forecast issuance, as any winds greater than 15 knots or so will be convectively related this morning. Thunderstorms should even move out of the coastal waters later today or this evening.

Beyond today, winds are likely to remain below 15 knots through much or all of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 89 66 89 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 70 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 69 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 72 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 69 90 70 87 / 10 0 0 0 PQL 68 92 67 90 / 10 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Shell Beach
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Sat -- 03:14 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:03 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:57 AM CDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:26 PM CDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:36 PM CDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana, Tide feet

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