Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bridge City, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:18PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 1:51 PM CST (19:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:57PMMoonset 3:57AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 1204 Pm Cst Tue Nov 20 2018
Rest of today..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Thursday night..East winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Saturday..West winds around 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Lake waters smooth.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 1204 Pm Cst Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis.. A cold front will depart the coastal waters leaving behind elevated north winds today. Mainly offshore flow is then expected through the remainder of the week. A series of upper level disturbances will bring a chance for showers on Wednesday night into early Thursday, and again on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bridge City, TX
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location: 29.98, -93.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 201742
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
1142 am cst Tue nov 20 2018

Discussion
18z tafs

Aviation
The trailing edge of the cloud deck associated with the cold
front that moved through the area yesterday will shortly reach
ara. The remainder of the area is already clear and will remain so
through the forecast period.

Breezy northerly winds will continue through the afternoon before
calming overnight as high pressure settles over the region.

Jones

Prev discussion issued 940 am cst Tue nov 20 2018
discussion...

wx map shows 1031mb high over ok N tx this morning, with
continued CAA over our region. Visible satellite imagery showing
sharp clearing line south of sabine pass to jennings and
opelousas, which is expected to progress further southeast today.

Ongoing forecast has these trends on track, thus no updates needed
at this time.

Dml
prev discussion... Issued 529 am cst Tue nov 20 2018
discussion...

20 12z TAF issuance.

Aviation...

low clouds continue to stream over the region, with the clearing
line approaching bpt aex. At this writing, MVFR CIGS have improved
toVFR at aex and this should occur shortly at bpt and over the
next hour or two at lch. Meanwhile, ifr CIGS continue at lft ara,
with a gradual improvement toVFR expected through 16-17z. Skies
will trend to skc through the day, and this will prevail through
the remainder of the period. Nly winds 10-15 kt can be expected
today with winds subsiding to less than 5 kt this evening.

24
prev discussion... Issued 400 am cst Tue nov 20 2018
synopsis...

a weak surface cold front as of 20 09z has moved through all of
the forecast area except for the southeastern portion of the
marine zones, with vad wind profiles from area radars showing
depth of cold layer about 3k feet. An upper level disturbance is
moving eastward through the forecast area. Ahead of this system,
still some isentropic lift occurring that is bringing warm and
moist air over the cold layer allowing for some light rain and
drizzle over lower acadiana and the coastal waters. Behind the
disturbance, some clearing is occurring, especially over upper
southeast texas which has allowed temperature at kjas to drop into
the upper 30s.

Rua
discussion...

the surface cold front will continue to move through the coastal
waters this morning before stalling beyond the outer waters as
high pressure over the plains builds south. Meanwhile, the upper
level disturbance will also move off to the east, ending
isentropic lift and any rain chances early in the morning, with
skies gradually showing clearing from west to east by afternoon.

As the surface high becomes the main player, rather cool and fair
conditions will prevail through Wednesday.

An upper level disturbance will quickly move out of the southern
rockies and across the forecast area Wednesday night and early
Thursday. Some cyclogenesis over the western gulf is noted along
the old frontal boundary. However, this feature and frontal
boundary should stay well offshore, keeping the forecast area in a
cooler stable surface low layer. Moisture again will override this
layer ahead of the disturbance. However, overall moisture profiles
show precipitable water values barely reaching one inch, and
elevated instability doesn't really register. So, would just
expect some over-riding clouds and mainly light rain for Wednesday
night with most activity ending over land areas before daybreak on
thanksgiving.

Pattern remains progressive through the weekend. This will bring a
couple of significant disturbances to the forecast area, one on
Friday, and the other on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate for
Friday over the weekend, as the surface high pressure system will
move off to the east, allowing for more of a southerly flow in the
low levels.

Still some differences in the details in the guidance with each
system so predictability is only moderate.

For the Friday system, there does look to be some good moisture
return, so a likelihood of shower activity during that day. Wind
dynamics look decent, the question to if any thunderstorms
develop and how strong will depend on low level instability. At
this time it looks like the instability will be meager with high
instability maybe developing further off to the east. So at this
point will just go with predominate showers for the weather with
only a slight chance of thunder.

On Sunday, again wind dynamics look very good. However, surface
low may be too far north of the forecast area to tap into the
rich gulf moisture, and southwest flow aloft may provide some
capping. Therefore, will stick with just chance of showers during
this time frame.

The disturbance on Sunday will be accompanied by a canadian cold
front at the surface. This combined with a large upper level
trough developing over the eastern part of the country, will bring
a deep northerly flow to the forecast area, that should bring
rather cold and stable conditions for the first part of next week.

Rua
marine...

the colder air mass behind the surface front is beginning to reach
western portions of the forecast area and will continue to
gradually overtake the coastal waters during the morning. At this
point, observations and latest guidance, shows just the outer
waters west of intracoastal city will experience sustained winds
over 20 knots, so will keep the small craft advisory for that
area, with small craft exercise caution for the remainder of the
coastal waters through noon.

High pressure over the plains will move gradually eastward while
building down into the coastal waters. This will provide elevated
offshore flow through Thursday.

An upper level disturbance will bring a likelihood of showers to
the coastal waters on Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Another upper level disturbance will bring a weak pacific trough
across the coastal waters on Friday with another chance for
showers. Winds will become onshore ahead of this system, then
westerly behind it for Saturday.

A more significant canadian cold front is expected to move across
the coastal waters on Sunday. This will bring elevated to strong
offshore flow behind it.

Rua

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 36 60 40 62 0 10 30 10
lch 41 62 46 62 0 10 40 10
lft 41 62 45 62 0 10 40 10
bpt 43 61 47 63 0 10 50 10

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft exercise caution until noon cst today for gmz450-452-
455-475.

Small craft advisory until noon cst today for gmz470-472.

Aviation... 66


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 10 mi40 min N 8 G 12 59°F 59°F1024.3 hPa
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 18 mi40 min N 11 G 15 58°F 62°F1025.7 hPa
TXPT2 20 mi34 min N 14 G 17 57°F 57°F1023.3 hPa
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 24 mi52 min NE 8.9 G 11 59°F 1024.6 hPa (-1.6)
CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA 28 mi34 min NNE 12 G 17 58°F1022.6 hPa
KCVW 30 mi27 min NNE 11 G 17 61°F 43°F
BKTL1 30 mi40 min 59°F
LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA 35 mi34 min 59°F 58°F1023.7 hPa
HIST2 41 mi40 min N 9.9 G 14 59°F 58°F1024.4 hPa

Wind History for Port Arthur, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orange, Orange County Airport, TX6 mi77 minNNE 910.00 mi60°F44°F57%1025.4 hPa
Beaumont/Port Arthur Southeast Texas Regional Airport, TX12 mi59 minN 1010.00 miFair63°F42°F47%1024.3 hPa
Beaumont Municipal Airport, TX23 mi77 minN 10 G 1410.00 miFair60°F40°F48%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from ORG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--N4N6N4N6N4N5N5N8N7N6N6N7N6N7NE6N4N4NE7NE6NE9NE8N9
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1 day agoS6S5S4S3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4N3N3N4N3NE5N5N6------
2 days agoS7S6SE6S4SE3SE7SE6SE4SE3SE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E3E3SE7SE4E7SE5S5

Tide / Current Tables for Mesquite Point, Sabine Pass, Texas
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Mesquite Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:09 AM CST     1.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:57 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:28 AM CST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:49 PM CST     1.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:57 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:17 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:31 PM CST     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.31.10.90.70.50.40.40.50.60.811.21.31.31.21.110.90.9111.1

Tide / Current Tables for Sabine Pass, North, Texas
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Sabine Pass
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:55 AM CST     1.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:57 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:29 AM CST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:21 PM CST     1.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:57 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:17 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:34 PM CST     0.91 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.41.210.70.50.30.30.50.711.21.41.51.51.41.210.90.911.11.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.