Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 4:18 AM   Moonset 5:39 PM

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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 311 Pm Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Tuesday - South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Wednesday - South winds around 10 knots, increasing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters choppy. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters choppy. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north after midnight. Lake waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Friday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Friday night - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Saturday - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Saturday night - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Lake waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 311 Pm Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet will prevail for much of the upcoming week. No precipitation is expected over the coastal waters until Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with the passage of a cold front. Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday through the weekend.

FXUS64 KLCH 062328 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 628 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Low pressure is over plains this afternoon while a ridge is over the Atlantic. Between these features, a southerly flow is keeping gulf moisture in place locally. Even with ample moisture in place, a lack of an upper disturbance and a more stable air mass has allowed for a less active day across the region, finally.
With that said, a few showers and storms will still be possible through the afternoon with daytime heating, and mainly from Cen LA through the SE TX Lake.

The warm and humid air mass that is in place will linger through the short term. Low temperatures will run around 10 degrees above normal with highs around 5 above climo averages. Rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday will be nearly nil. Conditions will be breezy Tuesday and Wed afternoons with the pressure gradient tightening a bit from Monday.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A cold front will be poised on our doorstep by Thursday morning.
Moisture will continue to increase in advance of the front, with showers and storms developing near the boundary, aided by passing disturbances aloft. The front will sag through the area late Thursday into early Friday, with convection spreading south over the area. The best chances are expected across our northern zones, from the Lakes region into central LA. General rainfall amounts are expected to remain below an inch, and at this time, forecast soundings show enough dry air within the column and sufficient storm motions to preclude a potential heavy rain threat. However, there does appear a non-zero risk for some strong to severe storms, mainly from late afternoon into the evening Thursday as soundings depict steep midlevel lapse rates, decent deep layer shear and considerable (mainly elevated) CAPEs.

The front will finally push through the area and off the coast by Friday morning, with high pressure beginning to build over the region in its wake. This will bring a nice airmass contrast after some very warm and humid days, with highs in the lower 80s and lows down to around 60 north and in the lower 60s south. Meanwhile, dewpoints will fall from the low to middle 70s on Thursday to the upper 50s to lower 60s by Friday.

The surface high is expected to slide east across the region into the weekend, maintaining the generally seasonal temperatures.
Global models depict a somewhat active west to southwest flow persisting over the region along with the potential for some low end PoPs/QPF through the weekend, but none of the operational models align regarding timing/placement of individual features.
The National Blend continues to advertise dry conditions inland, with just some low PoPs over the coastal waters Saturday and Sunday.

24

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR/MVFR this afternoon and early evening transitioning to MVFR/IFR overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds will stay breezy through this evening and overnight.

On Tuesday, CIGs will struggle to lift/break up with MVFR or even IFR through much of the afternoon. There could be some brief breaks to VFR during the afternoon, however confidence is low.

MARINE
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The onshore flow will remain in place into Friday. The pressure gradient will tighten somewhat into Tuesday and Wednesday with winds nearing 20 kts in the gulf waters by Wed PM.

A cold front will approach the region late in the week with winds relaxing as this occurs. The front will move offshore Friday with a period of offshore winds expected into Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 85 71 87 71 / 50 0 0 0 LCH 84 74 84 73 / 20 10 0 0 LFT 86 75 87 75 / 30 0 0 0 BPT 85 73 87 74 / 10 10 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Mesquite Point
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Mon -- 04:14 AM CDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:19 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:33 AM CDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:26 PM CDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:38 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:13 PM CDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mesquite Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, Tide feet

Sabine Pass
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Mon -- 03:27 AM CDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:19 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:13 AM CDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:21 PM CDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:38 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:06 PM CDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sabine Pass, North, Texas, Tide feet

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Lake Charles, LA,