Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 2:40 AM   Moonset 2:16 PM

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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 300 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 1 am cdt Saturday - .
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late. Lake waters choppy. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Lake waters rough. Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. Monday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming south around 10 knots after midnight. Lake waters rough. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 300 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis - Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will continue into this evening across the coastal waters and coastal lakes/bays. In addition, moderate onshore flow will also persist, and small craft should continue to exercise caution through tonight. Tonight, rain will end however, fog is expected to develop closer to Sunrise especially along and near the coastline. Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the rest of the upcoming week.

FXUS64 KLCH 032032 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 332 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Area radar this afternoon shows scattered showers and thunderstorms spreading across the region from the west. Most of today's precip has fallen across SE TX and SW LA, with area mesonet stations showing around 0.75-2.00" of rain has fallen in these regions. CAMs have largely handled today's system poorly however, the HRRR seems to have gotten a better handle on it over the last couple of runs and continues to show most of this activity ending between 6 and 8 PM this evening. Overnight, dry weather is expected along with another round of patchy fog, especially across those areas that saw a good bit of rain today.

Moving into the weekend, rain chances continue. Tomorrow, another shortwave is expected to pass overhead and initialize scattered showers by the late morning hours. POPs tomorrow are only in the 20-40% range, with better chances north of I-10, and overall coverage should be much less than the last couple of days. Rain chances then ramp up again for the second half of the weekend as a second, more robust, shortwave slides overhead and passes a bit further to the south that Saturday's shortwave. This may bring a similar set up to today's convection, with elevated rain chances in the 40-60% range on tap area-wide. Fortunately, no severe weather is anticipated this weekend however, we will have to keep an eye on the flooding risk as much of the forecast area has already received significant rainfall over the last couple of days.

Temperature wise, we will see near seasonal daytime highs over the weekend, warming into the low to mid 80s area-wide both days.
Overnight, lows will continue to fall into the upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s along and south of I-10.

17

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

As we head into the work week small rain chances continue for Monday followed by a reprieve from the wet weather through the mid-week. POPs on Monday are only around 15-30% at best, with mainly isolated afternoon activity anticipated. Tuesday through Thursday a drier pattern is expected as a weak midlevel ridge builds over the Gulf Coast and offers a bit of drier air aloft to keep showers at bay. Finally by Friday we may see a return of shower activity as some long range models are now pointing to a weak frontal passage. This is still a ways out however, and changes to the progression of this front are likely.

Temperature wise next week will bring a gradual warming trend with highs on Mon in the mid 80s warming into the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday and into the upper 80s to lower 90s from Wednesday and beyond. Overnight, lows in the low to mid 70s can be expected.

17

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening, accompanied by occasional gusty winds and mainly VFR ceilings. Overall this activity has lessened in coverage/intensity over the last couple of hours therefore impacts should be fairly minimal this afternoon. Tonight, rain comes to an end however, fog will become an issue after midnight and beyond. All terminals will have the potential to see fog, which will also be accompanied by MVFR/IFR ceilings. Thereafter, fog will start to burn off while our next round of convection is expected to spread into the region from the west. This activity should be much less in coverage/intensity than the last couple of days.

17

MARINE
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening across the coastal waters and coastal lakes/bays. In addition, moderate onshore flow will also persist, and small craft should continue to exercise caution through tonight. Tonight, rain will end however, fog is expected to develop closer to sunrise especially along and near the coastline. Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the rest of the upcoming week.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 65 85 67 82 / 10 40 20 60 LCH 69 83 70 83 / 10 30 10 40 LFT 70 83 71 85 / 10 20 10 30 BPT 71 83 72 83 / 20 30 10 40

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>032-141.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516.

GM...None.

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