Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Groves, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:48PM Wednesday August 23, 2017 11:41 PM CDT (04:41 UTC) Moonrise 7:38AMMoonset 8:18PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 925 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 23 2017
Rest of tonight..East winds up to 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 925 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 23 2017
Synopsis.. The forecast for the coastal waters is highly depend on the eventual track and strength of current tropical depression harvey in the southern gulf of mexico. For now, elevated winds and seas will be possible on Friday into the weekend. Also, numerous showers and Thunderstorms will also occur starting Friday. All interest should continue to Monitor the latest information on harvey from the national hurricane center.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Groves, TX
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location: 29.98, -93.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 240256
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
956 pm cdt Wed aug 23 2017

Discussion
Wx map shows not much change with tropical depression harvey in
the gulf, moving very little and not strengthening as of yet.

Further north, a weak frontal boundary highlighted by a broken
line of showers and thunderstorms continues north and west of the
area, with earlier afternoon and evening convection mostly
dissipated inland. As the front sags slowly southward, left 40%
for inland SE tx c la through 1 am, with 20% continuing overnight
for any isolated shower development in the continued moist and
relatively unstable atmosphere. Otherwise, no other changes made
to forecast.

Dml

Prev discussion issued 551 pm cdt Wed aug 23 2017
aviation... Showers and storms will continue around the area
through the next couple of hours. This may produce periodic MVFR
conditions. After the convection dies offVFR conditions are
expected through Thursday morning.

Prev discussion... Issued 438 pm cdt Wed aug 23 2017
.Potential for heavy rainfall and flood event over the
weekend into early next week...

synopsis...

tropical depression harvey is located as of 4 pm cdt about 460 to
500 miles southeast of the middle texas coast. The system has not
really strengthened or move much during the day.

Meanwhile, a tutt low is over the forecast area and is becoming
more elongated today, while a surface front moves into northern
louisiana and northeast texas. With the weakness aloft and a moist
unstable air mass in place, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are developing and moving from the northeast to the southwest.

Some of the storms could produce brief gusty winds and frequent
cloud to ground lightning before they diminish after sunset.

Rua
discussion...

high confidence in the short term. The surface front will continue
to sag a little to the south toward the coast. Meanwhile, the tutt
will continue to weaken. The weakness aloft, combined with the
frontal boundary and the general summertime unstable and moist air
mass will continue to see the daytime scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will decrease after sunset. This weather
pattern should hold through Friday.

There is a moderate confidence in the mid range forecast. This
part of the forecast will depend on the track and strength of
tropical cyclone harvey, and will closely follow the official
forecast from the national hurricane center.

Based on this, tropical storm force winds should stay out of the
forecast area. Some surge issues could arise and this will be
watched closely. Right now we are looking at 1 to 3 feet above
predicted values for Friday night into Saturday night west of
cameron to high island, and 1 to 2 feet east of cameron to the
lower atchafalaya river. Values beyond this will be either higher
or lower depending again on the strength and track of harvey.

The higher tropical like moisture will being to move into the
forecast area during the day on Saturday and continue through
Monday, as harvey loses and steering currents and meanders around
the mid texas coast, with precipitable water values over 2.5
inches and mean rh over 90 percent pushed in by a deep south flow.

So, with tropical moisture forced over the old frontal boundary,
some of these precipitation efficient showers will focused with
even maybe some training rainbands. Therefore, heavy rainfall has
been included in the weather grids starting on Saturday. If these
conditions still are looking like this on Thursday, then a flash
flood watch may be issued at that time for the Saturday and beyond
period.

One other note is a low tornado threat depending on how the outer
rainbands set up late Friday into Saturday.

There is lower confidence in the extended portion of the forecast.

Harvey may become trapped between an upper level ridge over the
southwest us and the sub-tropical ridge building across south
florida into the gulf. Biggest question will be if a short wave
trough dripping down from the central plains early next week, can
pick up the system and move it off to the east, and if the surface
low center can emerge any over the gulf of mexico. At this point,
solutions diverge enough to keep high range chances in the
forecast through Wednesday.

Rua
marine...

the forecast for the coastal waters will highly depend on the
eventual track and strength of tropical depression harvey. At
this time, no tropical storm force winds are anticipated for the
coastal waters and thus no watches are in effect at this time.

Elevated winds and seas could start to reach the coastal waters
late Friday into Saturday. Also, showers and storms will be on the
increase at that time.

Rua
hydrology...

with a slow moving tropical system interacting with a surface
boundary, there is a potential for very heavy rainfall that could
lead to flooding. Looks like the heaviest rainfall could start
during the day on Saturday and continue into early next week.

Storm rainfall totals area wide through Wednesday morning will
average 10 to 15 inches with locally 20 inches across southwest
louisiana into southeast texas. The totals across central
louisiana and south central louisiana look like 6 to 12 inches
with locally 16 inches.

Currently, river flood warnings are out for portions of the lower
calcasieu river at points salt water barrier and old town bay.

These initial warnings are for the higher tides along the coast
backing water up the channel taking these levels into minor flood
stage. A reminder, these levels do not include the potential
rainfall amounts forecast over the weekend.

Rua

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 73 89 72 86 40 50 20 50
lch 75 91 76 86 20 50 40 60
lft 75 91 76 87 20 50 40 60
bpt 76 90 76 85 20 40 50 60

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Public... 08


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 8 mi41 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 81°F 89°F1012.8 hPa (+0.7)
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 17 mi41 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1 79°F 90°F1014.1 hPa (+0.8)
TXPT2 20 mi41 min NE 6 G 7 79°F 88°F1011.7 hPa (+0.7)
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 22 mi41 min ENE 4.1 G 4.1 78°F 1013.1 hPa (+0.7)76°F
CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA 32 mi41 min ENE 6 G 7 87°F1011.9 hPa (+0.9)
KCVW 34 mi26 min NNE 2.9 79°F 75°F
BKTL1 34 mi41 min 89°F
KVBS 37 mi26 min ENE 4.1 86°F 73°F
HIST2 38 mi41 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 80°F 88°F1012.6 hPa (+0.5)
LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA 39 mi41 min 77°F 86°F1013.4 hPa (+1.1)
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 46 mi41 min SE 6 G 8 85°F 86°F1012.4 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Port Arthur, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orange, Orange County Airport, TX7 mi46 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F75°F99%1013.5 hPa
Beaumont/Port Arthur Southeast Texas Regional Airport, TX8 mi48 minNE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F75°F94%1012.4 hPa
Beaumont Municipal Airport, TX19 mi46 minno data10.00 miFair78°F73°F86%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from ORG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S4N9CalmNE5N4E5NE6CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E5CalmNE5CalmSE11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5E6E6E5E6CalmSW5SW3S5E6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Rainbow Bridge, Neches River, Texas
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Rainbow Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:43 AM CDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:35 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:12 AM CDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:59 PM CDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:48 PM CDT     0.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.40.20.20.10.20.30.40.60.60.70.70.60.50.50.40.40.40.50.60.70.70.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Sabine Naches Canal, Port Arthur, Texas
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Sabine Naches Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:23 AM CDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM CDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:36 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:50 PM CDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM CDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:54 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.20.30.40.60.70.80.80.80.70.60.60.50.50.50.60.70.80.80.80.80.70.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.