Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nocatee, FL
May 15, 2024 4:33 PM EDT (20:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 12:18 PM Moonset 1:19 AM |
AMZ452 Expires:202405160915;;264274 Fzus52 Kjax 151815 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 215 pm edt Wed may 15 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-160915- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- 215 pm edt Wed may 15 2024
Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday and Saturday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 2 feet at 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 215 pm edt Wed may 15 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-160915- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- 215 pm edt Wed may 15 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 215 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis - Widespread showers and the potential for strong to severe storms are expected over our local waters through late afternoon mainly over the northeast florida waters. Stronger storms may produce wind gusts of 35-50 knots and small hail and perhaps a waterspout. Conditions will improve from north to south late this afternoon and early evening as the cold front moves across the coastal waters. Westerly winds will gradually subside overnight and early Thursday as weak high pressure moves over the southeastern states. Winds will turn southerly on Friday ahead of the next frontal boundary that will impact our area this weekend. Showers and Thunderstorms will likely impact our local waters late Friday night through the weekend, with a few strong storms possible this weekend.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 14, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 93 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 14, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 93 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 151845 AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-10...
NEAR TERM
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Cold front is along the Altamaha River Basin at 12 noon and will reside over NE FL this mid afternoon with active weather just south of the frontal feature. A few of the storms could become strong to marginally severe through mid to late afternoon as the cold front continues to track slowly to the southeast. The main threats are limited severe storms with damaging gusty winds with some small hail. With the unidirectional flow the threat of tornados is quite limited to almost nil. The best coverage of thunderstorms will drift to the SE as the afternoon progresses drifting to central Florida by the later part of the afternoon into early evening.
The front will drift south into central Florida later tonight with drier air working into the region with mostly clear skies on tap. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s with upper 60s to near 70 at the coast, and beaches.
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Cold front exits to our south Thursday morning and stalls across central FL through Friday. Upper level ridging and drier airmass briefly build into the region on Thursday bringing sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Southwesterly return flow develops on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front and gradually increases moisture to the region. There may be just enough moisture to trigger a few afternoon/evening showers/storms along the sea breezes as they move further inland and meet along the US 301 corridor later in the day. Temperatures on Friday will be similar to Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Models continue to differ on pre-frontal storms for Friday night with the ECMWF bringing in convection and the GFS remaining dry.
Kept the blend showing isolated to scattered shower/storms mainly over SE GA and Suwannee Valley for Friday night.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Upper shortwave trough with attendant surface low will drag a cold front through the Deep South on Saturday before shifting off the coast of the Carolinas Sunday night into Monday. This will bring another batch of heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storm potential to the area on Saturday. With the front coming in from the northwest, highs will range from the low 80s over inland SE GA to low 90s in north- central FL. Heat indices may reach 100 F in north-central FL. Convection gradually clears from north to south through the day on Sunday as the cold front shifts south into central FL and drier air filters in. Rain chances will be limited Monday and Tuesday but there may enough moisture to support isolated showers developing along the afternoon sea breezes. Above normal temperatures return with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Line of convection currently resides from JAX to GNV with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms contain small hail and wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots at this particular time. The convection will start to shift to the south and east the next couple hours as a cold front shifts from SE GA into NE FL. The convection will last through 20z over the FL TAF sites. The heavy rainfall and lower ceilings will also cause periods of MVFR and isolated IFR, as indicated in TEMPO groups through 20z. AS the convective storm shifts south, some residual rain may occur between 20z and 22z but cigs/vsbys will be primarily VFR. After the initial bout of tstms through 20z, VFR conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period with mainly scattered to broken high cirroform clouds in the wake, with clear skies overnight. Westerly winds of 8 to 12 knots with some higher gusts this afternoon, becoming light westerly after sunset through the night.
MARINE
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Widespread showers and the potential for strong to severe storms are expected over our local waters through late afternoon mainly over the northeast Florida waters. Stronger storms may produce wind gusts of 35-50 knots and small hail and perhaps a waterspout.
Conditions will improve from north to south late this afternoon and early evening as the cold front moves across the coastal waters. Westerly winds will gradually subside overnight and early Thursday as weak high pressure moves over the southeastern states. Winds will turn southerly on Friday ahead of the next frontal boundary that will impact our area this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will likely impact our local waters late Friday night through the weekend, with a few strong storms possible this weekend.
Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues today due to unsettled weather, dropping to low Thursday with generally weakening offshore flow.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 65 88 67 88 / 0 0 0 30 SSI 68 88 71 84 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 67 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 68 90 69 89 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 65 90 65 90 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 68 90 66 91 / 10 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-10...
NEAR TERM
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Cold front is along the Altamaha River Basin at 12 noon and will reside over NE FL this mid afternoon with active weather just south of the frontal feature. A few of the storms could become strong to marginally severe through mid to late afternoon as the cold front continues to track slowly to the southeast. The main threats are limited severe storms with damaging gusty winds with some small hail. With the unidirectional flow the threat of tornados is quite limited to almost nil. The best coverage of thunderstorms will drift to the SE as the afternoon progresses drifting to central Florida by the later part of the afternoon into early evening.
The front will drift south into central Florida later tonight with drier air working into the region with mostly clear skies on tap. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s with upper 60s to near 70 at the coast, and beaches.
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Cold front exits to our south Thursday morning and stalls across central FL through Friday. Upper level ridging and drier airmass briefly build into the region on Thursday bringing sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Southwesterly return flow develops on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front and gradually increases moisture to the region. There may be just enough moisture to trigger a few afternoon/evening showers/storms along the sea breezes as they move further inland and meet along the US 301 corridor later in the day. Temperatures on Friday will be similar to Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Models continue to differ on pre-frontal storms for Friday night with the ECMWF bringing in convection and the GFS remaining dry.
Kept the blend showing isolated to scattered shower/storms mainly over SE GA and Suwannee Valley for Friday night.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Upper shortwave trough with attendant surface low will drag a cold front through the Deep South on Saturday before shifting off the coast of the Carolinas Sunday night into Monday. This will bring another batch of heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storm potential to the area on Saturday. With the front coming in from the northwest, highs will range from the low 80s over inland SE GA to low 90s in north- central FL. Heat indices may reach 100 F in north-central FL. Convection gradually clears from north to south through the day on Sunday as the cold front shifts south into central FL and drier air filters in. Rain chances will be limited Monday and Tuesday but there may enough moisture to support isolated showers developing along the afternoon sea breezes. Above normal temperatures return with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Line of convection currently resides from JAX to GNV with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms contain small hail and wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots at this particular time. The convection will start to shift to the south and east the next couple hours as a cold front shifts from SE GA into NE FL. The convection will last through 20z over the FL TAF sites. The heavy rainfall and lower ceilings will also cause periods of MVFR and isolated IFR, as indicated in TEMPO groups through 20z. AS the convective storm shifts south, some residual rain may occur between 20z and 22z but cigs/vsbys will be primarily VFR. After the initial bout of tstms through 20z, VFR conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period with mainly scattered to broken high cirroform clouds in the wake, with clear skies overnight. Westerly winds of 8 to 12 knots with some higher gusts this afternoon, becoming light westerly after sunset through the night.
MARINE
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Widespread showers and the potential for strong to severe storms are expected over our local waters through late afternoon mainly over the northeast Florida waters. Stronger storms may produce wind gusts of 35-50 knots and small hail and perhaps a waterspout.
Conditions will improve from north to south late this afternoon and early evening as the cold front moves across the coastal waters. Westerly winds will gradually subside overnight and early Thursday as weak high pressure moves over the southeastern states. Winds will turn southerly on Friday ahead of the next frontal boundary that will impact our area this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will likely impact our local waters late Friday night through the weekend, with a few strong storms possible this weekend.
Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues today due to unsettled weather, dropping to low Thursday with generally weakening offshore flow.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 65 88 67 88 / 0 0 0 30 SSI 68 88 71 84 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 67 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 68 90 69 89 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 65 90 65 90 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 68 90 66 91 / 10 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL | 13 mi | 34 min | W 8.9G | 82°F | 78°F | 29.78 | 82°F | |
| 41117 | 16 mi | 38 min | 77°F | 3 ft | ||||
| BKBF1 | 20 mi | 46 min | SW 11G | 80°F | 29.78 | |||
| LTJF1 | 25 mi | 46 min | 79°F | 74°F | ||||
| GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL | 26 mi | 49 min | W 4.1 | 79°F | 29.83 | 73°F | ||
| JXUF1 | 26 mi | 46 min | 79°F | |||||
| MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL | 26 mi | 46 min | SW 15G | 78°F | 78°F | 29.79 | ||
| BLIF1 | 27 mi | 46 min | SW 16G | 79°F | 29.79 | 75°F | ||
| DMSF1 | 27 mi | 46 min | 79°F | |||||
| NFDF1 | 29 mi | 46 min | SW 15G | 79°F | 29.78 | 79°F | ||
| FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL | 45 mi | 46 min | S 8G | 87°F | 78°F | 29.75 | ||
| 41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) | 48 mi | 34 min | 79°F | 76°F | 4 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSGJ NORTHEAST FLORIDA RGNL,FL | 5 sm | 37 min | WSW 12G17 | 10 sm | Clear | 82°F | 72°F | 70% | 29.80 | |
| KNIP JACKSONVILLE NAS (TOWERS FLD),FL | 22 sm | 40 min | SW 19G25 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 82°F | 70°F | 66% | 29.79 | |
| KCRG JACKSONVILLE EXECUTIVE AT CRAIG,FL | 23 sm | 40 min | WSW 14G24 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 81°F | 72°F | 74% | 29.78 |
Palm Valley
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:19 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 05:13 AM EDT 1.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 10:56 AM EDT -1.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:18 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:49 PM EDT 0.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 11:10 PM EDT -1.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:19 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 05:13 AM EDT 1.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 10:56 AM EDT -1.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:18 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:49 PM EDT 0.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 11:10 PM EDT -1.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Palm Valley, ICWW, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| -0.8 |
| 1 am |
| -0 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 1.7 |
| 6 am |
| 1.6 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| -0.3 |
| 10 am |
| -1.3 |
| 11 am |
| -1.7 |
| 12 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.7 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Vilano Beach, Tolomato River, Florida, Tide feet
Jacksonville, FL,
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