Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:12PM Monday January 22, 2018 6:25 AM CST (12:25 UTC) Moonrise 11:04AMMoonset 11:23PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 240 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light to moderate chop. Rain likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west around 15 knots early in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night and Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Wednesday night and Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters choppy.
Thursday night and Friday..East winds around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 240 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis..Cautionary level winds and seas are forecast to begin on Tuesday in the wake of a cold front and last until the end of the week when conditions should continue to deteriorate to advisory levels ahead of our next frontal system. Expect showers and Thunderstorms late today through tonight and again this upcoming weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico Beach, FL
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location: 30.03, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 221140
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
640 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Aviation [through 12z Tuesday]
MVFR CIGS will move into the region this afternoon ahead of a line
of showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will move
through this afternoon and evening. MVFR CIGS will persist
overnight.

Prev discussion [232 am est]
Near term [through today]
In the upper levels a trough will be over the lower mississippi
valley today. At the surface a low centered over iowa will continue
to move northeast. A cold front will approach the region this
afternoon and pass through overnight and into Tuesday morning.

Instability will be low ahead off this system with CAPE near 300
j kg and dew points in the lower 60s. However deep layer shear
around 50 knots is favorable for severe weather. With low
instability and favorable shear a marginal risk for severe weather
exists today from mid afternoon through early evening mainly west of
a line from dothan to panama city. This line of storms will weaken
as it moves eastward through southwest georgia and the florida big
bend tonight. Expect mostly cloudy skies today with highs mainly in
the lower 70s.

Short term [tonight through Wednesday]
The occluded upper low will move into the midwest overnight, with
the surface front making it just about halfway through the tri-
state region by dawn. As mentioned above this is a typical high
cape low shear event which tend to carry a marginal risk for
severe weather. It'd be hard to imagine anything but elevated
storms east of the apalachicola and chattahoochee rivers with
water temperatures in apalachee bay hovering right around 50
degrees and a full day of modest onshore flow. West of the rivers,
instability will likely be diurnally driven and should be waning
in the evening hours. Thus expect the threat for any strong to
severe storms to be lessening through the evening hours. Though a
low-end threat, all types of severe weather would be possible,
where surface based convection is favored, given 50-60kts of deep
layer shear, 25kts of low-level shear and favorable hodographs,
rather steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temps aloft. Storms
will likely be more of the discrete variation as they'll be pre-
frontal, at least prior to midnight.

Showers associated with the front should clear the southeast big
bend by early afternoon, with highs ranging from the low 60s in
southeast alabama, up to the low 70s in the southeast big bend. In
the warmer big bend and south-central georgia locations, highs
will be met prior to the passage of the front and will gradually
cool through late afternoon. Expect lows to dip into the upper 30s
to near 40 degrees Tuesday night, with sunny skies and highs in
the upper 50s to low 60s on Wednesday.

Long term [Wednesday night through Monday]
Expect dry conditions to continue through the end of the week as
deep layer ridging prevails. Highs will gradually climb through
the 60s, with lows in the upper 30s. Over the weekend, a northern
stream trough moving through the eastern CONUS will merge with the
southern stream, and eventually push a cold front through the
region by Monday morning. Ahead of the front, veering low layer
flow and a southern stream wave will support a large area of
isentropic rain spreading into the northeast gulf, at least as
far as north florida. At this time models differ considerably
regarding the placement of this rain shield and thus our average
rain amounts with the weekend system could range from an inch or
less to 1-3".

Marine
Cautionary level winds and seas are forecast to begin on Tuesday
in the wake of a cold front and last until the end of the week
when conditions should continue to deteriorate to advisory levels
ahead of our next frontal system. Expect showers and thunderstorms
late today through tonight and again this upcoming weekend.

Fire weather
Dry air will move into the region by Tuesday morning as a cold front
moves through. Minimum relative humidity values will likely remain
above 30 percent this week. Patchy fog is possible this morning.

Rain is likely this evening and overnight.

Hydrology
Average rain amounts associated with today and tonight's frontal
system will range from 0.25-1", with the highest amounts expected
in the southeast big bend of florida. Isolated higher amounts
would likely be less than 2". This weekend brings another chance
for rain, though just how much is quite uncertain. Additional
amounts could range from an inch or less to 1-3".

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 69 58 68 40 61 40 70 10 0 0
panama city 68 57 63 43 57 70 60 0 0 0
dothan 71 49 62 36 58 50 60 0 0 0
albany 71 55 64 37 58 20 60 10 0 0
valdosta 73 62 69 40 60 20 70 20 0 0
cross city 76 62 72 41 62 20 80 40 0 0
apalachicola 66 60 66 45 58 60 70 10 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Mcd
short term... Harrigan
long term... Harrigan
aviation... Mcd
marine... Harrigan
fire weather... Mcd
hydrology... Harrigan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 13 mi38 min ESE 6 G 11 56°F 54°F1018 hPa
PCBF1 25 mi38 min SE 13 G 14 57°F 56°F1017.6 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 33 mi38 min ESE 6 G 8 54°F 52°F1018.1 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 35 mi101 min E 6 58°F 57°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL7 mi30 minESE 710.00 miFair56°F54°F94%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE6E5E6E7E5E3S4W4S6S3SE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E3E4E5E5SE7
1 day agoNE3CalmE5E3NE3NE7N4N5SW7S7S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE3
2 days agoCalmNE5NE5CalmCalmN5W4W6W5W7W6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Allanton, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Allanton
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Mon -- 12:42 AM CST     0.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:16 AM CST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:03 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:10 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:44 PM CST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:51 PM CST     0.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:22 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.70.60.60.40.30.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-00.10.20.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Laird Bayou
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:39 AM CST     0.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:03 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:48 AM CST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:10 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.70.70.70.60.60.40.30.20.10-0-0.1-000.10.20.20.30.40.40.40.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.