Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico Beach, FL

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Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 7:19PM Monday August 20, 2018 1:59 AM CDT (06:59 UTC) Moonrise 3:19PMMoonset 1:15AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 853 Pm Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Monday through Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light to moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night through Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 853 Pm Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Synopsis.. Generally light winds and low seas are expected over the next few days. A cold front will move through the waters Tuesday through Thursday, increasing winds and seas slightly.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico Beach, FL
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location: 30.03, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 200533
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
133 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Aviation [through 06z Tuesday]
MVFR restrictions are forecast at dhn and aby before sunrise,
slowly lifting toVFR later in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will
be most likely at dhn and aby, but a scattering of storms
elsewhere could result in any of our terminals being impacted.

Expect MVFR to lifr in storms.

Prev discussion [851 pm edt]
Near term [through tonight]
The focus for showers and thunderstorms this evening will be across
the fl big bend, southeast al, and southwest ga, as more stable air
has advected into the remainder of the area. With precipitable water
(pw) values around 2.2 inches over the aforementioned area, heavier
than normal downpours may lead to localized poor drainage flooding.

Despite the unremarkable instability and shear, the unseasonably
high moisture content, in conjunction with collapsing thunderstorm
downdrafts, has the potential to produce isolated wind gusts of 40-
50 mph. Precipitation will diminish late this evening with the loss
of daytime heating. Overnight, low clouds are likely to redevelop,
which will hold temperatures slightly above normal.

Short term [Monday through Wednesday night]
An upper low will continue to move through the upper midwest on
Monday as a deep layer ridge builds westward from the atlantic
over the southeast states. In terms of thunderstorm coverage,
Monday looks very similar to Sunday. A gradient of pw values will
exist once again, near 1.8" near the big bend under the influence
of the upper ridge and near 2.2" in SE al. This will keep 50-60%
pop in SE al tapered down to around 30% in the southeastern areas.

As usual, storms will taper off quickly after sunset.

The cold front looks to make a quicker arrival than previous runs,
especially in the gfs. With this quicker arrival, the best
moisture may already be in our far southeast fl counties by 12z
Wednesday. The GFS stalls the front to the south while the ecmwf
doesn't bring it through until Wednesday afternoon before it
generally washes out stalls just to our south on Thursday morning.

The NAM is fairly split between the two. On average, it looks
like the front and its associated precip and upper support will
make it far enough south to the SE al counties for at least
scattered to likely pops Tuesday evening and only slight chance in
the fl big bend area. With the loss of heating Tue night, only
isolated to scattered showers storms is forecast as the front
moves south. Once we heat up again on Wednesday, coverage will
increase again along the front which will likely wash out stall
near the fl big bend, giving those counties the higher chance of
rain (gfs is much more progressive with a dry day for wed). A few
showers may linger Wed night in the southeastern counties.

Highs through the short term will generally be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s; cooler in the west where more clouds rain will occur.

Lows will be in the lower 70s, maybe slightly cooler Wed night
behind the front.

Long term [Wednesday through Sunday]
What is consistent is much drier air will be moving in for
Thursday with pw values falling to around 1.5" and dew points in
the upper 60s. Thursday still looks relatively dry with the
blended pops leaving a chance in for the big bend area to account
for uncertainty on where the front will stall. A weak surface low
looks to form along the remnant boundary on Friday with an
easterly surface flow bringing in showers and storms. This will
generally dominate the weather through Sunday with a weak
shortwave moving in to enhance the coverage on Sunday. Have left
the chance to likely pops in for the weekend from the blended
guidance at this time.

Highs will be near 90 through the long term with lows near
seasonable, in the lower 70s.

Marine
Generally light winds and low seas are expected over the next few
days. A cold front will move through the waters Tuesday through
Thursday, increasing winds and seas slightly.

Fire weather
Hazardous fire weather conditions not expected through the period
as rh's will remain above critical thresholds.

Patchy fog is possible late tonight.

Hydrology
Total forecast rain amounts will average around 1.5" along and
west of the apalachicola and chattahoochee rivers over the next 7
days. Elsewhere, amounts around 1 inch are forecast. Therefore,
latest river guidance keeps all rivers just below action stage.

Locally higher amounts are possible and will likely occur so
flashier rivers and streams may still rise as well as low lying
and flood prone areas.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 90 74 90 75 92 40 20 50 20 30
panama city 87 78 88 77 89 40 20 50 20 30
dothan 86 73 88 73 89 70 20 60 20 20
albany 89 73 89 73 91 60 20 50 20 20
valdosta 91 73 90 74 92 30 20 40 20 30
cross city 90 75 90 76 91 30 20 30 20 50
apalachicola 87 78 87 78 89 40 20 40 20 30

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Pullin
short term... Lf
long term... Ln
aviation... Harrigan
marine... Pullin
fire weather... Ln
hydrology... Pullin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 13 mi41 min S 5.1 G 6 82°F 86°F1017.5 hPa
PCBF1 25 mi41 min SSW 7 G 8.9 83°F 85°F1017.3 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 33 mi41 min SW 5.1 G 7 83°F 83°F1017.3 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 35 mi74 min W 2.9 80°F 1018 hPa76°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL7 mi63 minSSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds81°F75°F83%1017.5 hPa

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Last 24hrSW6SW6SW7W5W6W4W6SW7W9SW7W10W9W4W7W8W8W6W3SW3SW4S4S5SW5SW4
1 day agoSE4CalmS5SW4SW3--SW5SW5S5SW8SW6NW12
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2 days agoE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3W10NW8CalmNE4NE3NE3CalmSW4--S3CalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Allanton, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Allanton
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Mon -- 01:14 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:23 AM CDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:17 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:11 PM CDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.21.41.61.71.81.81.81.71.61.41.20.90.70.50.30.20.20.20.30.30.50.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Laird Bayou
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:14 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:31 AM CDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:18 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:07 PM CDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:18 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.11.21.41.61.71.81.91.91.81.71.61.41.10.90.70.60.40.30.30.30.40.50.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.