Sunday, February18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Arabi, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:53PM Sunday February 18, 2018 3:01 AM CST (09:01 UTC) Moonrise 8:24AMMoonset 8:37PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 944 Pm Cst Sat Feb 17 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst Sunday...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog in the late evening. Areas of fog after midnight with visibility 1 nm or less. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning with visibility 1 nm or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog early in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 944 Pm Cst Sat Feb 17 2018
Synopsis..A weak cold front will move to near the coast tonight and stall before becoming diffuse Sunday and moving back north. The next cold front will begin to approach the area by the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arabi, LA
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location: 30.03, -90.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 180549
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1149 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018

Update
Updated for 06z aviation discussion.

Aviation
Variable conditions fromVFR to lifr were occurring with the lower
conditions reported behind the weak cold front at kmcb to
kbtr khzr (due to cigs) and ahead of the front at khum kgao
(cigs vsbys). Confidence is low in timing and areal extent of the
expansion of lower conditions, however am forecasting ifr to
reach develop at kmsy around 12z Sunday and not improve toVFR
until 18z. Have the remaining airports mostly going down to low MVFR,
but cannot rule out ifr at some point during the 10-16z period.

Mist fog and low CIGS are expected to redevelop Sunday night which
may impact the latter portion of the 06z TAF period. 22 td

Prev discussion issued 1010 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018
update...

weak cold front was advancing through the northern and western
portions of the forecast area and was near a bogalusa to baton
rouge line. A few showers and patchy light rain were occurring
near and a bit behind the front. Current forecast appears to have
these trends depicted, so the main forecast problem again is fog.

While the land and water temperatures have warmed up in the
unseasonable surface temperatures the last few days, the
conditions are now not quite as favorable for advection fog,
however will maintain patchy to areas of fog in the forecast near
and south of the tidal lakes and near the coast. 22 td
marine...

patchy to areas of fog should still be able to develop overnight
due to a combination of surface dewpoint temperatures near the
water temperatures, and a slight moisture advection near and
south of the frontal boundary and radiational cooling. Have
expanded the marine dense fog advisory to include lakes
pontchartrain and maurepas, otherwise, the winds and waves
forecast did not need any significant changes with the evening
forecast. 22 td
prev discussion... Issued 655 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018
sounding discussion...

the sounding this evening is a warm one for february with a well
mixed boundary layer up to an elevated inversion at almost 700 mb.

A drier airmass is present above, though overall pw is at 1.1
inches. Winds are westerly through the profile. Patchy fog is
possible later tonight and tomorrow morning over land areas. The
most fog will likely be over nearshore water and in river basins.

Krautmann
prev discussion... Issued 348 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018
discussion...

a front is slowly drifting southward today across the southeast. A
few showers ahead of the front developed today and we can expect a
few more showers to be possible tonight. The front really does not
make it through the forecast area thanks to a fairly decent ridge
over the atlantic. After the cold front all but dissipates and
moves north, the foggy mornings should begin to improve for the
beginning of the work week. Temperatures still will remain warm
as the spring like conditions continue through next week. Expect
onshore flow to setup for next week. That will increase the
moisture available in the atmosphere and a few showers can be
expected each day especially over the eastern portions of the
forecast area. The next organized chance of rain looks to come by
the middle of next week through the end of the week. Guidance is
pointing to a prolonged period of unsettled weather for the back
half of next week. A cold front will slow quite a bit as it
approaches the area and stall at some point either very close to
the area or to the northwest before moving back north by Friday.

Heavy rain for some portion of the mid south will be an issue
depending on where this boundary sets up. We will have to watch
this in future forecasts. It does not look like a huge issue for
our forecast area but a good chance of showers and thunderstorms
will be in the forecast for the second half of next week. 13 mh
aviation...

vfr conditions will be persistent through the remainder
of the afternoon and much of the evening however expect at least
MVFR CIGS and possibly vsbys as well. By 07 08 CIGS will begin to
lower towards ifr and possibly even into lifr status shortly after.

Vsbys will likely fall slower and mainly around coastal sites.

Msy new have the best chance of falling into ifr and lifr status due
to vsbys but can not rule out asd or gpt as well. Cab
marine...

front is very slowly sliding south and could eventually
reach the tidal lakes and ms coast. Along this front and just to the
south winds will be fairly light and moisture will pool. Combine
that with the relatively cooler shelf waters and there could be one
more night of fog concerns over the inner waters and tidal lakes. On
shore will take back over by midday tomorrow and could even become
moderate by late Sunday night and Monday. Onshore flow will continue
through the first half of the week. Persistent moderate onshore flow
and southeast winds across much of the gulf will eventually lead to
a decent swell leading to higher seas. Cab
decision support...

dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: marine dense fog adv.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 57 74 62 79 30 10 10 20
btr 61 75 62 81 30 10 10 10
asd 63 77 63 80 20 10 10 20
msy 64 78 64 81 20 10 10 20
gpt 63 72 63 75 20 10 10 20
pql 62 75 62 76 20 10 10 20

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Sunday for gmz530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557.

Ms... None.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Sunday for gmz532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 4 mi43 min SW 2.9 G 2.9 67°F 64°F1020.4 hPa
CARL1 9 mi43 min 45°F
FREL1 21 mi43 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 67°F 1019.5 hPa66°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 22 mi49 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 66°F 72°F1020.5 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 27 mi43 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 67°F 70°F1020.8 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 43 mi49 min N 6 G 7 67°F 69°F1020.6 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA1 mi68 minSW 55.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F96%1019.9 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA12 mi68 minWSW 39.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F66°F100%1020.7 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA14 mi66 minW 35.00 miFog/Mist60°F60°F100%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW7SW8SW8SW9SW8SW9SW9NW8NW7N5N4NW6W8W6W4SW11SW10SW8SW8SW9SW11W5SW6SW8
2 days agoSE5SE5S5S4S5S7S13S15S12SW10SW11SW14SW16SW13SW10SW11SW9SW8SW8S8S7S7SW4W8

Tide / Current Tables for New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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New Canal USCG station
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:00 AM CST     0.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:42 AM CST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:24 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:05 AM CST     0.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:09 PM CST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:42 PM CST     0.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:51 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM CST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:37 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:21 PM CST     0.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.20.20.20.20.20.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:37 AM CST     0.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:23 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:02 PM CST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:50 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:36 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.50.60.60.60.60.50.50.40.30.20.10.10000.10.10.10.20.20.20.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.