Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Metairie, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:28PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 4:44 AM CDT (09:44 UTC) Moonrise 1:36PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 425 Am Cdt Wed Oct 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots early easing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 425 Am Cdt Wed Oct 17 2018
Synopsis..A cold front will move to the coast and stall this morning. The front will begin to move south again starting late this afternoon and move through during the early evening hours. This front will move back to the north Friday before another stronger cold front moves through the coastal waters Satureday night into Sunday morning. A coastal surface low may get organized and move through the coastal waters for the first half of the new week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Metairie, LA
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location: 30.03, -90.11     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 170134
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
834 pm cdt Tue oct 16 2018

Sounding discussion
This evening's sounding is still usually warm and moist for this
time of year, but is in a downward trend compared to the last 24
hours. Cold front was very close but the balloon did not quite get
to reach it. Dry slot is in the mid to upper levels. Winds are
light and out of the southeast at 5-10 knots at the surface but
move to northeasterly with winds at 20-35 knots. EL is also very
high but unlikely for the storms today to reach that. -bl

Prev discussion issued 450 pm cdt Tue oct 16 2018
short term... The region will remain in a transition zone between
a very summer like airmass and an unseasonably cold airmass. A
very slow moving frontal boundary will gradually drift to the
south through tomorrow afternoon in this region of transition.

Light northeast flow in the low levels will continue to be overrun
by a southerly flow in the mid-levels, and this will keep an
overcast sky and scattered showers in the forecast through at
least tomorrow morning. Precipitable water values will remain
rather high at around 2 inches or more through tomorrow afternoon,
and the risk of some locally heavy rainfall occurring with any
passing showers or thunderstorms will persist. A sharp temperature
gradient will also persist across the area through tomorrow
afternoon. Temperatures will be in the lower 70s tonight across
the southeast half of the cwa, and the upper 50s and lower 60s
across the northwest half. Tomorrow will see a similar
temperatures set up today with highs in the upper 60s and lower
70s across the northwest half of the cwa, and middle to upper 80s
across the southeast half.

The front should finally reach the coast tomorrow night, but also
begin to weaken and ultimately wash out as the upper level trough
driving the front lifts to the north and the broad ridge over the
gulf of mexico expands to the north and west across the gulf
south. As the front dissipates along the coast, rain chances will
decrease and a dry pattern should develop over most of the
forecast area. Only the immediate louisiana coast south of new
orleans and the offshore waters should see lingering chances of
showers and thunderstorms by tomorrow night. Cold air advection
will occur behind the front, and overnight lows will cool into the
upper 50s and lower 60s along and north of i-10 and the middle 60s
south of i-10.

As the front fully dissipates on Thursday, the upper level ridge
axis will become the dominant feature impacting the forecast.

Increased subsidence and dry air advection in the mid and upper
levels of the atmosphere will decrease precipitable water values
to around 1.5 inches and also produce a fairly strong elevated
temperature inversion that will effectively cap any cloud
development Thursday afternoon. A dry forecast is expected on
Thursday except across the offshore coastal waters where weak
moisture convergence will spark off showers and thunderstorms
through the day. Temperatures will be near normal on Thursday with
highs around 80 degrees. Some modification of the airmass should
occur by Thursday night as 925mb temperatures gradually increase
due to the subsidence aloft, and expect to see lows a few degrees
warmer in the 60s and lower 70s.

Long term...

the deep layer ridge axis will remain in firm control of the area
on Friday, and return to the summer like conditions experienced
the last few days is in the forecast. Temperatures will easily
climb into the middle to upper 80s Friday afternoon and a
southeast wind off the gulf will advect moisture back into the
region. Precipitable water values should increase to between 1.75
and 2 inches Friday afternoon. Overall instability should
increase with the rise in available moisture, and expect to see
scattered showers and thunderstorms begin to fire up as the mid-
level temperature inversion is easily overcome.

The ridge axis will begin to break down Friday night as a fairly
strong long-wave trough digs down from the northern plains into
the mid-atlantic states. An associated surface front will sweep
through the forecast area on Saturday and expect to see a band of
showers and thunderstorms accompany this frontal passage.

Fortunately, conditions do not look conducive to strong to severe
thunderstorm activity as this front moves through. Have opted to
go with a chance pop of around 40 percent for Saturday afternoon
as the front moves through.

By late Saturday night, the front should be well offshore, and a
surge of drier and cooler air can be expected across the region as
deep layer northwest flow and strong negative vorticity advection
kicks in. 925mb temperatures support morning lows in the 50s
north of i-10 and the lower 60s south of i-10 by Sunday morning,
and daytime highs should only rise into the middle 70s. Low
relatively humidity and mostly clear skies will accompany these
cooler temperatures, and this will be first fall feel day the
region has seen in a while. These cooler conditions should
persist into Monday with highs in the lower 70s expected after
cooling into the 50s Sunday night. However, a developing area of
low pressure along the cold front in the gulf of mexico could
begin to impact the region by Monday afternoon in the form of a
weak warm front. Increasing cloud cover and scattered showers
could develop across areas mainly south of i-10. As the warm
frontogenesis in advance of the deepening low pressure system
continues on Tuesday, skies could turn mostly cloudy and scattered
showers could spread as far inland as southwest mississippi.

Temperatures will begin to modify with lows in the upper 50s and
lower 60s Monday night and the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday
afternoon.

Aviation... Expect MVFR to ifr conditions along and south of lake pontchartrain
this evening. Some gradual improvement is expected as a slow moving
cold front makes its way through the region. Expect some fog and low
stratus to be around most TAF sites through the evening and
overnight hours. Expect MVFR conditions for your Wednesday.

Marine... A strengthening area of low pressure in the southwest
gulf of mexico will produce an increased pressure gradient over
the coastal waters beginning tomorrow and persisting through
Thursday. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots and seas of 4 to 8
feet can be expected over the sounds and open gulf waters, and
small craft advisory headlines will likely be issued. A brief
decrease in the pressure gradient is expected on Friday as the low
moves into texas and high pressure builds in from the east. East
to southeast winds will drop to 10 to 15 knots by Friday afternoon
and persist into Saturday afternoon. Seas will also decrease with
the winds to between 2 and 4 feet by Saturday. A strong cold front
is then expected to sweep through the waters Saturday night, and
winds will quickly increase 20 to 25 knots out of the northeast by
Sunday morning. Small craft advisory flags will then likely be
needed from Sunday morning through Monday morning as colder and
drier air moving over the warmer waters allows stronger winds
aloft to easily transport down to the water. Seas should increase
back to 4 to 8 feet as these winds develop.

Decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 59 72 58 78 20 20 10 10
btr 61 74 61 80 20 20 10 10
asd 67 81 61 82 20 20 10 10
msy 72 79 66 81 20 20 10 10
gpt 69 82 63 83 20 20 10 10
pql 69 83 63 83 20 20 10 10

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 0 mi44 min NE 12 G 13 74°F 79°F1018.7 hPa (+0.0)
CARL1 7 mi44 min 75°F
FREL1 17 mi44 min N 8 G 9.9 72°F 1018 hPa (+0.3)
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 23 mi44 min NNE 1.9 G 5.1 74°F 81°F1018.7 hPa (+0.0)
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 26 mi44 min NNE 11 G 14 78°F 83°F1018.5 hPa (+0.0)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 46 mi44 min NNE 9.9 G 11 72°F 82°F1019.2 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA4 mi51 minNE 1210.00 miOvercast75°F72°F90%1018.3 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA8 mi51 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast75°F73°F96%1019.1 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA15 mi1.8 hrsNNE 47.00 miOvercast80°F78°F94%0 hPa

Wind History from MSY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6E3E4E6E7SE9SE11SE8S10S11S9S9S9S8S6SE6E3NE9NE5--N5NE6N5N8
1 day agoSE7SE8SE7SE8SE6S9S8S9S11
G16
S11S9S11E5NE6NE6NE12NE7E10NE6NE10W3CalmN4NE6
2 days agoS6E4E6E5SE8S8SE8S8
G18
S9SE9SE8S8S8S7SE8SE7SE9SE9SE10SE8SE7SE9SE7SE7

Tide / Current Tables for New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Michoud Substation, ICWW, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.