Sunday, January21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Metairie, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 5:30PM Sunday January 21, 2018 12:02 PM CST (18:02 UTC) Moonrise 9:48AMMoonset 9:46PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 921 Am Cst Sun Jan 21 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog through the night. Slight chance of light rain after midnight.
Monday..South winds near 10 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Light rain and chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 921 Am Cst Sun Jan 21 2018
Synopsis..A cold front will move through the area Monday. A moderate offshore flow is expected after the frontal passage Monday and persist through Wednesday. High pressure will shift east by the end of the of week and yield a moderate easterly flow over the coastal waters Thursday and Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Metairie, LA
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location: 30.03, -90.11     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 211434
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
834 am cst Sun jan 21 2018

Sounding discussion
The local atmospheric column has begun to dry considerably as a
result of northwesterly flow in the mid levels. A 30 to 50 degree
dewpoint depression resides in that region of the atmosphere.

This should keep most of the area from seeing any shower
development today. There is good saturation but only from the
surface to about 50m. This depth is too shallow for fog of any
significance to develop.

Meffer

Prev discussion issued 340 am cst Sun jan 21 2018
short term...

some patchy fog this morning will lift while the remainder of the
day stays mostly cloudy to cloudy. The main timing for best fog
production will be overnight tonight into Monday morning as the
incoming front helps strengthen the inversion at 950mb capping
the moisture beneath while pressure continues to slowly lower. At
the moment, we will continue with patchy fog for tonight as well,
but this could also end up being fog's twin... A stratus deck at
500 ft since the base of the inversion is high enough.

The main thing with this front is the marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms. Numbers are not impressive, hence the marginal
risk. But they are in the ball park as profile soundings show low
cape high shear. Instability is lacking a bit as LI numbers are
sitting at -1 to -2 and CAPE values around 450 at best. 0-3km
helicity values are 300-400m2 s2. These numbers show the slight
potential for a spin up. Dry air is also locked in at 700mb as
well, so if a thunderstorm is capable of penetrating this region,
strong straight line winds would be the result. So the main two
things that could result from this marginal risk would be an
isolated tornado &or damaging wind. SPC has the risk area outlined
very well as the best potential energy that can be found is over
southern mississippi and a portion of adjacent louisiana parishes.

There is a weak disturbance that moves over the south shore, but
does not get going until it gets to the eastern coast line. This
disturbance causes thunderstorms to develop from the coast
southward well into the gulf and begins to moisture starve the
southern end of the cold front. The front moves through Monday
morning clearing things out and cooling us back down, but not as
cool as previous fronts. Matter of fact, we will be hard pressed
to get into the 30s. But some locations over the northern tier of
counties may fall that far.

Long term...

by the end of this week, another system will be in the area. Winds
will veer around to more easterly while remaining in the 15-20kt
range by Thursday. This continues into the weekend with a long
fetch of moderate to strong east to southeast winds Thursday
night through Saturday. Winds will ramp up quite a bit(25-30kt)
over the gulf as a sfc low develops over the southwest gulf and
move north into our area by Saturday. This will cause tide levels
to rise by at least a foot if not two. Rainfall and the
possibility of severe weather will depend greatly on where the sfc
feature moves inland. At the moment, models barely agree with
keeping this low along the coast or just inland as it moves north
then northeast ahead of the cold front that should move through
early Sunday. This current scenario would rob moisture away from
the cold front causing thunderstorm activity associated with the
front to decrease. But, if the sfc low is nudged westward, then
the heavy rainfall and severe weather would show much better
chances of occurring.

Aviation...

vfr conditions expected for much of the first half of the forecast
period with the exception of khum, which is reporting MVFR to ifr
visibilities in fog mist. Can't rule out lifr there around sunrise,
but should see improvement by mid-morning. As onshore flow increases
today, expect the column to saturate from the mid-levels downward.

Will likely see ceilings around fl050 by late morning today. By late
evening, prior to 06z, expect ceilings to fall through MVFR to ifr
at most locations. Moisture levels would indicate the potential for
advection fog near after midnight, especially at kasd kgpt kpql, but
guidance lending to the idea of more of a low stratus event.

Precipitation likely to affect some or most terminals prior to 12z
Monday, but will only carry potential of thunder at kbtr in the 06z-
12z range. The late morning package will probably need to add it at
the rest of the terminals beyond 12z Monday. 35
marine...

first 24 to 30 hours should be fairly benign for the tidal lakes,
sounds and inner open waters as southeast winds 10-15 knots
expected. Will probably need exercise caution headlines for the
outer waters tonight. After Monday's cold frontal passage, there is
likely to be an extended period of conditions worthy of exercise
caution headlines on the open waters through much of the work week.

Since there will not be strong cold advection behind this front
(pacific in origin), the tidal lakes and sounds likely to stay below
criteria for much of the week. As the next storm system approaches
next weekend, a prolonged period of easterly to southeasterly
onshore flow will produce some swell, which could pose coastal
flooding issues in the usual places. Small craft advisories will
also likely be necessary as we get to Friday or Saturday. 35
decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 73 58 68 39 10 40 80 0
btr 73 61 68 39 20 60 80 0
asd 71 59 69 42 10 20 80 0
msy 72 60 70 45 20 20 80 0
gpt 68 58 66 44 0 20 60 10
pql 69 57 68 44 0 10 60 10

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 0 mi45 min SE 1.9 G 8 70°F 46°F1021 hPa
CARL1 7 mi45 min 40°F
FREL1 17 mi45 min NE 1 G 2.9 58°F 1020.2 hPa52°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 23 mi45 min ESE 8.9 G 14 68°F 47°F1021.3 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 26 mi51 min ESE 18 G 20 67°F 49°F1021.5 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 46 mi45 min SE 12 G 13 62°F 49°F1022.1 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA4 mi70 minESE 910.00 miFair70°F57°F66%1021.1 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA8 mi70 minSE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F61°F71%1021.7 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA15 mi68 minSE 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F61°F73%1021.4 hPa

Wind History from MSY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE11SE12SE13SE10SE14SE7SE10SE8SE9SE10SE9SE8SE4E6E6E6SE4CalmCalmE6SE8SE11SE12SE12
1 day ago4NE4SE7SE7S5SE9S5SE4E6E5E4E5N3E8E7E3E4E4E7SE9E7SE8E10SE10
2 days agoN644NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE64N6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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New Canal USCG station
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:55 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:48 AM CST     0.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:47 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:28 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:55 PM CST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:44 PM CST     0.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:45 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:32 PM CST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.30.30.30.30.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Michoud Substation, ICWW, Louisiana
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Michoud Substation
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:44 AM CST     0.67 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:54 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:47 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:30 PM CST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:27 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:45 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.50.60.70.70.60.50.40.20.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.1-000.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.