Saturday, December15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Metairie, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:04PM Saturday December 15, 2018 5:06 PM CST (23:06 UTC) Moonrise 12:31PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 322 Pm Cst Sat Dec 15 2018
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday through Monday..North to northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..North winds near 5 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday and Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of light rain.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of light rain through the night.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 322 Pm Cst Sat Dec 15 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will build over the region this weekend and remain in place through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Metairie, LA
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location: 30.03, -90.11     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 152133
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
333 pm cst Sat dec 15 2018

Short term A thermal trough and low level moisture trapped
below an elevated inversion will keep overcast skies in place
through the overnight hours. There is the possibility that the
cloud deck could lower late tonight, and some patchy fog could
form over the northern third of the forecast area. Areas of
southwest mississippi and the florida parishes will see the
highest probability of fog formation tonight. The one limiting
factor may be boundary layer winds of around 10 knots. The
lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures somewhat elevated
tonight, and overnight lows should generally remain in the lower
40s.

The thermal trough will pull away from the area tomorrow, and
strong mixing in the boundary layer will allow drier air to fully
clear the cloud deck out by midday. With an increase in solar
insolation, temperatures are expected to warm back to more
seasonal levels in the lower to middle 60s.

A largely zonal flow pattern is then expected to set up across the
gulf south by Monday. This westerly flow pattern aloft should
advect in some high level moisture, but the low to mid-levels will
remain very dry. As a result, other than some cirrus aloft, a very
pleasant day with near normal temperatures is expected.

Long term The zonal flow pattern will continue into Thursday
with near average temperatures in the 40s at night and the 60s
during the day expected. A very dry airmass will remain in place
in the low to mid-levels with only some high level clouds expected
to pass by. Overall, a very quiet start to the work-week is
expected.

Conditions will worsen on Wednesday into Wednesday night as a
vigorous shortwave trough moves into the ARKLATEX region.

Increasingly difluent flow aloft and a favorable jet pattern will
bring increasing omega values and resultant lift to the forecast
area. A surge of moisture will also advect into the area on the
back of return flow from the gulf of mexico, and expect to see an
area of rain move in during the day. At this point, have opted to
put in a high end chance of rain on Wednesday which is actually
slightly below guidance. Model soundings indicate that lapse rates
above 850mb are decently unstable. As a result, a decent amount of
elevated CAPE is expected to the south of i-10 and over the
coastal waters. Have decided to include a mention of slight chance
to chance thunder through Wednesday night as this rain band
progresses across the region. Fortunately, severe thunderstorm
activity does not look to be a concern as a stable marine layer
exists below 850mb. Temperatures will remain near average with
lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s.

The initial shortwave that drove the higher rain chances on
Wednesday and Wednesday night will become fully embedded in a much
stronger longwave trough that is expected to dig into the plains
states. Model guidance has come into much better agreement today
with the GFS trending toward the ECMWF model. The euro has been
the more consistent model concerning the evolution of this late
week long wave trough feature, and the forecast now leans more
into this solution than the gfs. As a result, fully expect to see
the core of the upper level low move through the lower mississippi
valley and into the deep south on Thursday and Thursday night.

A pool of much colder air and moisture will accompany this upper
level low, and expect to see clouds spread back in for Thursday
and Thursday night especially over the northern half of the
forecast area. There should also be enough instability in the
atmosphere to spark off some showers, and have a slight chance to
low end chance of rain in the forecast for Thursday and Thursday
night. Temperatures will drop into the 30s across most of the
forecast area late Thursday night, but temperatures aloft and
surface temperatures above freezing should keep all of the
precipitation in liquid form through the period. This upcoming
event will continue to be monitored over the coming days to see if
temperatures trend colder.

The upper level low will begin to pull east of the region on
Friday, but lingering moisture should keep clouds in place over
the northeast part of the CWA through the morning hours. Increased
dry air advection should gradually reduce the amount of cloud
cover during the afternoon hours, and clear skies should be in
place by Friday night. A bit of thermal trough remains in place,
and expect to see daytime highs on Friday only warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s. By Saturday, the return of zonal flow aloft
should allow for a quick return to more seasonal readings in the
middle 60s after a relatively cool night in the 30s and low 40s.

Aviation For the most part look for continued impacts for the
next 12-16 hours. MVFR conditions are impacting all terminals at
this time and this will be the case for most if not all till 15z
Sunday. After that the low CIGS should really begin to improve with
vfr expected everywhere by late morning tomorrow. There is small
potential for a few terminals to deal with ifr CIGS and maybe even
some light fog at mcb. Cab

Marine Conditions slowly improving over the waters as high
pressure builds into the region. Offshore flow will remain in place
through Monday night. At that time the surface high will slide east
and winds will veer around to easterly and by mid week onshore flow
is expected to return. After Wednesday conditions on the water look
to go downhill and could be rough for at least 3 days. Another cold
front will move across the region with strong onshore winds behind
it. Small craft advisories conditions at the least will develop but
can not rule out a few gale force gusts with the strong CAA behind
this front. Cab

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 39 63 41 66 0 0 0 0
btr 41 64 43 66 0 0 0 0
asd 42 63 43 65 0 0 0 0
msy 44 61 47 64 0 0 0 0
gpt 43 60 44 63 0 0 0 0
pql 43 61 41 65 0 0 0 0

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

32


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 0 mi37 min WNW 4.1 G 8 53°F 55°F1018.1 hPa
CARL1 7 mi37 min 45°F
FREL1 17 mi37 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 1017.2 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 23 mi37 min W 5.1 G 7 53°F 54°F1018.7 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 26 mi37 min WSW 4.1 G 6 53°F 57°F1018.2 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 46 mi37 min W 2.9 G 5.1 53°F 56°F1017.5 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA4 mi74 minWNW 1210.00 miOvercast53°F48°F83%1017.3 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA8 mi74 minW 710.00 miOvercast54°F48°F80%1018.3 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA15 mi72 minWSW 410.00 miOvercast54°F48°F80%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from MSY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW7SW7W9W10W8SW7W9SW10W12W11
G18
W9W11W8W8W7W8W8W11W8NW10W8W7W7
1 day agoSE7E4SE6CalmCalmSE4SE3NW4CalmCalmW3SW4W10W13
G21
W8W8SW86W8SW10W14
G19
SW15SW12SW13
G20
2 days agoSE7E5SE6E6E8E6E7E10E8E7E8SE8SE11SE11SE14SE14SE13SE13SE13SE11SE16E12SE9SE5

Tide / Current Tables for New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Michoud Substation, ICWW, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.