Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Metairie, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:23PM Sunday October 22, 2017 5:44 PM CDT (22:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:34AMMoonset 7:37PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 355 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect through Monday morning...
Tonight..Northwest winds near 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Northwest winds near 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..Northwest winds near 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north in the late evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 355 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis..A cold front will move across the coastal waters tonight. High pressure will settle in tomorrow and remain in place through Thursday night. The high should shift toward the eastern gulf by Friday as another low pressure system and cold front moves in from texas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Metairie, LA
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location: 30.03, -90.11     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 222042
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
342 pm cdt Sun oct 22 2017

Short term
Convection firing up along a pre-frontal trough will continue to
push eastward through the evening hours, and expect to see only
lingering clouds and a few showers affect the forecast area later
tonight as the actual cold front sweeps through tonight. Deep
layer northwest flow will then take hold tomorrow. Rapidly
clearing skies are expected in the morning hours, and a much
colder and drier airmass will quickly advect in. Expect to see
highs only rise into the lower to middle 70s tomorrow afternoon
after temperatures cool into the middle 50s tonight. Tomorrow
night, beneath clear skies, temperatures should cool back into
the upper 40s and lower 50s.

A fairly vigorous shortwave trough axis and associated front will
sweep through the area on Tuesday, but the system will be moisture
starved. Expect to see no real sign of the front moving through
other than an increase in wind speeds and a significant drop in
temperatures as deep pool of colder air advects in from the north.

Temperatures should climb back into the lower to middle 70s
Tuesday afternoon before the front moves through. However,
overnight lows Tuesday night will easily fall into the lower to
middle 40s across most of the cwa. Only areas south of the tidal
lakes and along the immediate louisiana coast should remain in the
upper 40s and lower 50s.

Long term
The deep cold pool will remain over the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night, and expect to see temperatures remain a good 10
to 15 degrees colder than average. Highs should only climb into
the middle 60s, and overnight lows should fall back into the lower
to middle 40s over inland areas Wednesday night. Strong ridging
and subsidence will continue to keep clear skies in place across
the gulf south.

Both the euro and GFS are in good agreement on Thursday that the
deep layer ridge axis will begin to shift east of the forecast
area. Expect to see winds shift to a more onshore component
through the day, but moisture advection will be delayed. As a
result, another clear day with low humidity and mild temperatures
in the middle 70s is expected for Thursday. Some moisture should
begin to advect in by Thursday night, and the rise in dewpoints
should result in warmer overnight lows in the middle to upper 50s.

Some fog may also develop Thursday night due to the increase in
low level moisture and relatively light winds.

Model differences continue to persist heading into the upcoming
weekend. All of the guidance is in agreement that another long
wave trough and associated frontal system will affect the forecast
area. However, the GFS and canadian models are much more
progressive with this feature than the ecmwf. There is currently
about a 18 hour difference in the timing of the frontal passage
and associated unsettled weather, and confidence in either of the
model solutions prevailing is still fairly low. With this in mind,
have opted to continue using a blend of the model solutions
through the weekend. This results in a quick increase in cloud
cover and scattered shower and thunderstorm activity by Friday
afternoon that then persists through the day on Saturday. Rain
chances remain in chance range of 30 to 40 percent due to the
large degree of uncertainty on the timing of the feature from
Friday into Saturday. Both of the models agree that the trough
axis and frontal passage should occur by Saturday night, and have
clearing skies and dry weather in the forecast for Sunday.

Daytime temperatures on Friday and Saturday should generally range
somewhere in the 70s, and lows Friday night should be in the 50s.

After the front moves through, expect to see another period of
strong cold air advection take hold resulting in highs in the 60s
on Sunday.

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected at all of the terminals through around
03z. Some lower ceilings could move in after 03z, and produce a
mix of MVFR and ifr restrictions through 12z. A surge of drier air
will then advect in resulting in rapidly clearing skies and return
toVFR conditions after 12z tomorrow. 32

Marine
Strong offshore flow will take hold of the coastal waters this
afternoon and evening and remain in place through Wednesday. Have
raised small craft advisory headlines for the open gulf waters
through Wednesday due to the offshore winds of 20 to 25 knots and
seas of 6 to 9 feet. Conditions should ease Wednesday night and
Thursday as the center of a high pressure system moves directly
over the waters. Expect to see lighter and more variable winds of
10 knots or less and seas falling back to less than 3 feet through
Thursday night. As the high pressure system pushes to the east on
Friday, a more sustained onshore wind of 10 to 15 knots is
expected to develop. This should also help increase seas to 3 to 4
feet in the open waters. 32

Decision support
Dss code: yellow.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: marginal risk of severe weather tonight.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 53 74 48 71 10 0 10 0
btr 53 75 48 73 0 0 0 0
asd 57 76 48 74 20 0 0 0
msy 61 75 55 74 10 0 0 0
gpt 61 76 51 74 30 0 10 0
pql 62 76 49 74 50 0 10 0

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 4 pm cdt Wednesday for gmz550-552-555-
557-570-572-575-577.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 4 pm cdt Wednesday for gmz552-555-557-
570-572-575-577.

32


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 0 mi44 min NE 9.9 G 12 73°F 76°F1015.9 hPa (-1.9)
CARL1 7 mi44 min 76°F
FREL1 17 mi44 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 1015 hPa (-1.4)59°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 23 mi44 min Calm G 2.9 74°F 77°F1016.2 hPa (-1.7)
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 26 mi44 min N 13 G 17 73°F 78°F1016.5 hPa (-0.0)
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 35 mi54 min NW 3.9 G 9.7 74°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.0)64°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 46 mi44 min N 7 G 8.9 70°F 74°F1016.6 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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E2
G8
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E6
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G11
NW1
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SE1
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA4 mi51 minno data miMostly Cloudy0°F0°F%1016 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA8 mi51 minN 710.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F60°F62%1016.4 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA15 mi1.8 hrsNNW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F58°F55%1016.1 hPa

Wind History from MSY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE18SE18E14E14
G26
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E11SE12SE11E10E11E8E6E10
G21
S3S4S7S6NW25
G34
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N12
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N9N7
1 day agoE14E11E11E9E8E9E8E10SE11SE12E9E10E9E7E10E12E11SE11SE16E15SE16SE18SE18SE19
G25
2 days agoE10E8E11E9E9E6E6E7E4E5E6E5E5E5E5E7E10E8NE7E13E13E14E13E14

Tide / Current Tables for New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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New Canal USCG station
Click for Map
Sun -- 07:05 AM CDT     0.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:33 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:21 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:37 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:48 PM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.30.30.20.20.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Michoud Substation, ICWW, Louisiana
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Michoud Substation
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:26 AM CDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:33 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:35 PM CDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:21 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:36 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.51.61.71.81.81.71.61.41.210.90.70.60.60.60.60.70.70.80.911.11.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.