Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 2:58 AM   Moonset 3:07 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 249 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tuesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 249 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through next week.

FXUS64 KLIX 042014 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 314 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The CWA remains along the northern edge of an upper level ridge where the flow is fairly zonal. North/northwest of the local area, the upper level pattern is fairly complex with a couple troughs as well as multiple shortwaves spread across this portion of the country. One of those weak shortwaves, seen on water vapor imagery, is moving northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. This feature will play some part in convection the rest of this afternoon/evening by providing some lift. The probably bigger portion of initiation and maintenance comes from instability created by abnormally warm surface temps. Mid 80s to 90 degrees aftn temps, while still cool aloft, and ample moisture at the surface is a pretty textbook early summertime pattern with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Although not outlooked by SPC, strong to possibly marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be possible. PW around 1.5" or less will be the biggest limiting factor to convective coverage.

Sunday will be nearly a complete repeat of today with yet another shortwave passing SW to NE across the lower MS Valley. Global models suggest that the trajectory of this trough will be slightly closer to the CWA than the one today. That would aide in small but appreciable increase in coverage over the the CWA However, still looking at pretty much the same area of impact...SW MS and areas of SELA northwest of an Gonzales to Bogalusa line. Probably won't see much, if any, convection southeast of that line.

MEFFER

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The upper level flow pattern along the Gulf Coast will be somewhat zonal Monday before the ridge centered south of the local area expands across the northern Gulf Coast and across portions of the southeastern US. This will provide subsidence to stunt convection as well as moderate already above normal temps. Guidance spread is surprisingly minimal mid week when forecast temps are in the lower to mid 90s. Normal highs this time of year are in the lower 80s with records in the low 90s. So pretty likely to see some records broken. Forecast heat indices peak in the mid 90s to 100 degrees Wed/Thu. Although not nearly warm enough for heat advisory criteria, early summer heat often catches people off guard and could see some local heat related impacts.

MEFFER

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Visible satellite shows CU field across the region. These mostly MVFR decks will continue to rise as the surface warms and VFR ceilings will dominated the rest of the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possibly mid/late afternoon... mainly northwest of a KHUM to KHDC line. Fog and low stratus development tonight isn't expected to be widespread based on minimal fog last night but patchy fog possible just before sunrise. Sunday should be a near repeat of today.

MEFFER

MARINE
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Surface ridge centered east of the region and extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain southeasterly winds. Small variations in the pressure gradient from day to day will result in fluctuations in wind speeds and seas but generally expecting around 10 to 15kts through next week.

MEFFER

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 84 66 84 / 20 50 10 30 BTR 69 88 70 88 / 10 50 10 30 ASD 69 87 70 87 / 10 20 10 20 MSY 72 86 73 87 / 10 20 10 20 GPT 70 85 71 84 / 10 10 0 10 PQL 67 87 69 86 / 10 10 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, Tide feet

Michoud Substation, ICWW, Louisiana, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,