Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 7:57 AM   Moonset 10:54 PM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 355 Am Cdt Sat May 11 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am cdt this morning - .
Today - Northeast winds 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late this morning, then becoming east 5 to 10 knots early this afternoon, becoming southeast late. Waves 2 to 4 feet this morning, then 1 foot or less. Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 feet after midnight. Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Showers likely. Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening. Tuesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wednesday - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 355 Am Cdt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
the cold front has moved into the gulf. Behind the front winds have shifted to the north. High pressure will build through today with lighter and more variable winds expected. Another area of low pressure will begin to approach the area on Sunday and winds will turn easterly and then southerly and rise again ahead of this low through Tuesday.

FXUS64 KLIX 110856 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 356 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The upper ridging is now starting to drop into the NW CONUS and forcing the upper troughing over the west to begin moving SE and will eventually orient itself more meridionally. The flow over our area has become more zonal and as the upper trough gets a bit closer and orients N-S, it will cause a strong divergent area as it couples with the zonal flow to the south of it. This will set the stage for several disturbances to be produced after today as there will be more upper support for these storms to develop. Not much expected with Sunday's system as most of it will be to the north of the area.
But there is a chance that several locations in our area could see some showers and maybe a Tstorm. The highest chances of rain should be over SW Miss and adjacent parishes of LA during the day. The better chance of rain will come with the first disturbance that moves though overnight Sunday into Monday. Models are having issues resolving the placement, but this should come close enough to the northern portion of the area to get most if not all the area some rain.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Small mesoscale distubances will continue to be produced by this upper trough to the west and will have support downstream as there will be plenty of upper divergent flow due to the interaction between the upper trough and the old zonal flow over the gulf south that will now start to buckle into an upper ridge pattern over the eastern gulf into FL. The problem with each of these disturbances is to find where they will be each day so we will know which areas will most likely get storms and watering. Each one of these will need to be closely monitored for the production of severe storms and heavy rainfall. We are fairly sure of the heavy rainfall picture and this could be a daily or every other day event through the week. Even though these storms will be transitory, the more they move over, the more saturation will occur and then won't take much to cause some flooding with strong rain rates. Models will have disagreements with each other concerning these small systems. So we will need to see where they initialize and use those models that have the initialization correct. The second one after Sunday night looks to move rapidly east Monday after initializing near or south of Austin Tx Monday morning and be near or over our area by Monday evening after sunset.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR through this taf period.

MARINE
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A cold front will settle over the northern gulf today. Small craft advisories will be for a short time this morning and should lower by mid morning. Winds will ease through the day today and remain that way through Sunday morning. Winds will then begin to rise from the SE to around 15-20kt as the old boundary starts to move north.
Strong/severe storms along with widespread strong winds will be possible Monday through Tuesday as disturbances move over the northern gulf. There is a possiblity that strong disturbances impact the northern gulf waters through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 80 61 79 64 / 10 10 20 60 BTR 86 67 85 71 / 10 10 30 60 ASD 85 66 84 70 / 0 10 10 50 MSY 83 72 84 73 / 0 10 20 50 GPT 85 66 83 70 / 0 10 10 50 PQL 86 64 85 68 / 0 0 0 40

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-557.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ550-552- 555-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534- 536-538-557.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ552-555- 570-572-575-577.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Sat -- 05:27 AM CDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:55 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:43 PM CDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:52 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Shell Beach
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Sat -- 04:29 AM CDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:54 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:56 PM CDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:50 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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