Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 3:00 PM   Moonset 2:41 AM

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AMZ452 Expires:202405190945;;453740 Fzus52 Kjax 190112 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 912 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-190945- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 912 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south southeast around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 2 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. A few storms could become strong to severe late in the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes possible within stronger storms. Sunday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north northeast and increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 8 seconds and east 2 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening. Monday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: northeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday night and Tuesday - Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: northeast 4 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: northeast 4 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Wednesday through Thursday - South southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 912 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis -
a frontal boundary will remain stalled over our local waters through Sunday night. The next wave of showers and possibly a few embedded Thunderstorms will occur after midnight through the predawn hours on Sunday. A break in activity is expected on Sunday morning, followed by the next round of showers and Thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday. Strong to isolated severe Thunderstorms will be possible with this activity, with stronger storms being capable of producing damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. High pressure building over new england on Sunday will then Wedge down the southeastern seaboard during the predawn and early morning hours on Monday, pushing the frontal boundary south of our local waters. North-northeasterly winds will surge to caution levels on Monday, with speeds gradually decreasing on Tuesday and Tuesday evening as high pressure begins to settle directly over our waters. Chances for showers and a few embedded Thunderstorms will persist on Monday and Monday night. High pressure will then shift offshore towards midweek, resulting in prevailing southerly winds across our local waters.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 16, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 97 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 190200 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1000 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE ARRIVES EARLY ON MONDAY, BRINGING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...
...TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO SEASONABLY HOT LEVELS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

UPDATE
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Late evening surface analysis depicts a wavy frontal boundary extending across the southeastern states
Aloft
a potent shortwave trough was digging southeastward from the Tennessee Valley towards the Deep South, creating deep west-southwesterly flow across our region. Flow aloft over the northeast Gulf of Mexico is highly diffluent to the south of this potent shortwave trough, with weaker shortwave energy embedded within the flow pattern triggering a large area of convection over the loop current waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with debris cloudiness and lighter shower activity extending northeastward across the FL Panhandle and Big Bend region, with a few showers beginning to develop near the Alapaha River in south Georgia recently. Cirrostratus blowing off from the convection over the Gulf of Mexico was blanketing southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, with fair skies in place along the I-95 corridor in northeast FL. A warm and humid air mass otherwise prevails across our region late this evening, with temperatures at 02Z generally in the 70-75 degree range, wile dewpoints were in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to dig southeastward towards our area by Sunday evening. This feature will propel weaker shortwave energy currently traversing the northeast Gulf of Mexico across our area overnight, resulting in an increasing area of showers and possibly some low-topped thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. This activity should remain below severe limits, with an uptick in coverage expected for locations along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor during the midnight through 3 AM time frame, with activity then shifting southeastward while gradually weakening as it moves into north central FL during the predawn hours on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms within this activity will be capable of producing heavy downpours and lightning strikes, but a lack of CAPE overnight should keep storms from producing any strong downburst winds. Lows tonight will remain seasonably warm, as values only fall to the upper 60s inland and the lower 70s at coastal locations.

A break in convective activity is expected on Sunday morning, with showers and thunderstorms then increasing in coverage and intensity during the afternoon hours, especially along the I-10 and I-95 corridors. The approach of the potent shortwave trough should steepen lapse rates, with morning sunshine boosting highs to the 85-90 degree range for locations from Waycross south and eastward, adding fuel to the atmosphere for strong to potentially isolated severe thunderstorms. Stronger storms late on Sunday afternoon will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph, small hail, frequent lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. Activity should push south-southeastward ahead of the approaching frontal boundary towards coastal locations during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 816 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 03Z. The next round of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to push across our region during the overnight hours, mainly from around 04Z through 09Z. Confidence was high enough to include vicinity thunderstorms and an MVFR TEMPO group for heavier showers at SSI from 05Z through 08Z. Confidence was only high enough to include vicinity showers elsewhere overnight. VFR conditions should then prevail by 10Z area-wide. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over our region late on Sunday afternoon, mainly for locations along and east of U.S. Highway 301, with activity generally progressing south-southeastward into the early evening hours. A few stronger storms will be possible after 21Z along the I-95 corridor. We included PROB30 groups for gusty winds and MVFR conditions during heavier downpours at all terminals except GNV from 19Z-00Z. Confidence was only high enough for vicinity thunderstorm coverage at GNV. Southerly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots this evening will shift to southwesterly overnight, with speeds diminishing to around 5 knots by 06Z.
Surface winds will continue to veer to westerly after sunrise, with speeds increasing to around 10 knots by 14Z. A pinned Atlantic sea breeze boundary east of I-95 may shift surface winds to southerly at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals towards 20Z before thunderstorm activity increases on Sunday afternoon and evening.

MARINE
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

A frontal boundary will remain stalled over our local waters through Sunday night. The next wave of showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms will occur after midnight through the predawn hours on Sunday. A break in activity is expected on Sunday morning, followed by the next round of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible with this activity, with stronger storms being capable of producing damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore through Sunday night.

High pressure building over New England on Sunday will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard during the predawn and early morning hours on Monday, pushing the frontal boundary south of our local waters. North-northeasterly winds will surge to Caution levels of 15-20 knots throughout our local waters on Monday, with speeds gradually decreasing on Tuesday and Tuesday evening as high pressure begins to settle directly over our waters. Chances for showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will persist on Monday and Monday night. Seas will build to the 3-5 foot range both near shore and offshore from Monday through Tuesday night.
High pressure will then shift offshore towards midweek, resulting in prevailing southerly winds across our local waters, with seas diminishing back to the 2-4 foot range throughout our local waters.

Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low wave heights will keep the rip current risk low at all area beaches on Sunday.
Strengthening north-northeasterly winds early on Monday will result in a higher end moderate risk at all area beaches that will persist through at least Tuesday, due to building and increasingly choppy surf conditions.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Westerly transport winds will become breezy after sunrise on Sunday for locations south of Waycross. West southwesterly surface winds will also become breezy for locations along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor by the mid to late morning hours on Sunday.
These breezy winds will combine with elevated mixing heights to create good daytime dispersion values for locations south of Waycross, with pockets of high daytime dispersion values possible for locations along and east of U.S. Highway 301 on Sunday afternoon. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible for locations along and east of U.S.-301 during the late afternoon and early evening hours, with damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes, and heavy downpours possible within stronger storms. Surface and transport winds will then shift to northeasterly early on Monday morning, with breezy surface winds developing along the I-95 corridor shortly after sunrise, with breezy transport speeds expanding inland during the late morning and early afternoon hours. These breezy conditions will create good daytime dispersion values area-wide on Monday. These breezy northeasterly winds will persist into Tuesday, keeping good daytime dispersion values in the forecast.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Water levels along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near the Three Rivers Estates gauge will rise above flood stage on Sunday morning, with minor flooding expected to then continue during the next several days. Otherwise, minor flooding along upper portions of the Satilla River and also along the Little Satilla River may result in water levels rising above flood stage along lower portions of the Satilla River near the gauge at Atkinson by late in the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 67 83 66 81 / 20 70 30 10 SSI 73 87 70 78 / 40 60 70 20 JAX 71 89 69 81 / 50 60 70 30 SGJ 73 89 71 80 / 30 50 60 40 GNV 71 88 68 86 / 40 20 30 50 OCF 72 88 69 89 / 60 20 20 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Julington Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:57 AM EDT     6.91 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:29 AM EDT     7.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:13 PM EDT     6.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:06 PM EDT     7.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Julington Creek, Florida, Tide feet

Green Cove Springs
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:30 AM EDT     4.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:12 AM EDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:55 PM EDT     4.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:54 PM EDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Green Cove Springs, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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