Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Orleans, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:03PM Tuesday July 17, 2018 12:34 AM CDT (05:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:07AMMoonset 10:47PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 938 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 16 2018
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 938 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 16 2018
Synopsis..Weak high pressure will prevail through the week. However, upper level disturbances and tropical moisture will result in more numerous showers and Thunderstorms through Thursday, particularly during the late night and morning hours. Thunderstorms will produce occasionally much higher winds and seas than the prevailing forecast.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Orleans, LA
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location: 30.07, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 170237
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
937 pm cdt Mon jul 16 2018

Sounding discussion
This evening's balloon launch was successful with only a few
difficulties encountered. Nearby convection was ongoing at the
time just to the north, which may have sacrificed the data
integrity true environmental sampling. Taking a look at the
vertical profile, many saturated layers with false inversions are
an indicator of the balloon traveling through rain and or
convection. These problems aside, the sounding did illustrate the
presence of an unstable airmass being ingested into the storms
with continued above-normal pw values. This, combined with slow
mean storm motion reflected widespread convection and its
potential for flash flooding (which did occur with several storms
today).

We will reside in this moist and unstable airmass tonight and into
tomorrow with much of the same expected. The mid to upper-level
cloud canopy from storms earlier today should continue to erode
overnight. Due to widespread rain earlier, some patchy valley fog
may develop early in the morning with such a saturated profile in
the lower levels. Klg

Prev discussion issued 422 pm cdt Mon jul 16 2018

Short term
This transition to a more typical to wetter than normal pattern
occurred as expected today, but thus far mainly over eastern
portions of the forecast area. Am still expecting an increase in
convective activity in the central to some western locations
through the early evening hours as the numerous outflow
boundaries interact and collide. A few large clusters and slow
moving thunderstorms have dumped torrential downpours and frequent
to continuous lightning at times this afternoon across much of
the mississippi gulf coast, and some other locations are expected
to see this through early evening.

A mid upper level high will be building over the southwest conus
into the southern plains while troughing develops over the great
lakes into the much of the eastern third of the CONUS through
Wednesday. This suppression of the ridge aloft in our region will
be coincident with deep moisture continuing to stream into the
region. Like this afternoon, some areas over the next few days
may receive locally heavy rainfall amounts from slow moving
thunderstorms capable of producing ponding of water in low lying,
poorly drained areas and some streets. Also, areas that see later
convective development, which is often typical when there is
northerly flow aloft, will have greater instability and some
potential for stronger thunderstorms. The higher rain chances and
resultant cloud cover should temper the heat over the next few
days, but cannot rule out some heat indices up in the 100 to 105
degree range in some drier locations or locations seeing rain
develop later in the day. However, nighttime rain chances will
also be bit higher than normal which could spill over into the
morning hours (mainly in the southeast coastal areas), so that
should also help with holding down the high temperatures. The
models are in decent agreement, so used a blend which also has
good continuity from the previous forecast.

Long term
The initial shortwave trough over the eastern CONUS will move
east into the atlantic ocean while another digging and potent
shortwave trough moves into the upper mississippi valley great
lakes and ohio valley to southeast states late in the week into
next weekend. Using a general blend of the global models, have
continued the higher rain chances into Thursday, and would expect
a continued threat of some stronger thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall amounts.

An expansion extension of the southern plains high aloft into the
forecast area should bring less rainfall and above normal
temperatures well into the mid 90s over much of the forecast area
Friday through next Sunday, so heat indices are still forecast to
reach 105 to 110 in many locations. Will have to monitor this as
the rainy pattern transitions back to drier. 22 td

Aviation
Stronger tsra with periodic much lower vsby and lower cig along
with frequent lightning may continue to impact a few airports
through early evening, otherwiseVFR conditions should prevail
through Tuesday morning. Convective development on Tuesday likely
to be a bit earlier, and more widespread. Will carry prob30 for
morning activity for now, but that may need to be beefed up in
later forecasts. Any storms today or Tuesday potentially could
produce MVFR to ifr conditions briefly. 35

Marine
A large ridge of high pressure covering most of the gulf of mexico
will dominate with generally light westerly winds of around 10
knots or less and seas waves of 2 feet or less through most of
next week. The exception is some periodic 10 to 15 knot wind
speeds over chandeleur sound and some mainly eastern coastal
waters at times during late afternoon and nighttime hours through
Tuesday. An approaching cold front that will dissipate well north
of the coast will tighten the pressure gradient enough to produce
more widespread 10 to 15 knot wind speeds late Tuesday night into
Wednesday and Thursday and Thursday night. More numerous
thunderstorms will continue to produce periodic higher winds and
seas not reflected in the general forecast during late night into
morning hours through Friday. 22 td

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 73 91 73 90 50 50 40 60
btr 75 92 76 91 30 40 30 50
asd 75 91 76 91 30 60 50 70
msy 78 92 77 91 20 50 40 60
gpt 76 91 77 90 30 60 60 70
pql 75 90 74 92 40 70 60 70

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 4 mi35 min S 1.9 G 2.9 77°F 88°F1016.8 hPa (-0.6)
CARL1 10 mi35 min 87°F
FREL1 19 mi35 min SW 4.1 G 7 76°F 1015.6 hPa (-1.0)
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 25 mi35 min WNW 9.9 G 11 81°F 89°F1017.3 hPa (-0.0)
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 27 mi35 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 76°F 87°F1017.3 hPa (+0.0)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 43 mi35 min N 6 G 8.9 77°F 86°F1017.3 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA3 mi42 minSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds80°F73°F79%1016.5 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA12 mi42 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast77°F75°F94%1017 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA17 mi40 minNNW 310.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1016.9 hPa
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA23 mi42 minSE 410.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3W10W12W14W14W14W12NW14NW11NW8NW8NW5NW4W6W3S13S13S9SE6NE12
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1 day agoW11W12W13W14W14W13W13NW12NW12NW10NW7W8NW8NW8NW7NW8W4NW4CalmS7S7S6E5SE4
2 days agoSW8SW9SW10W11W11W10NW9NW11NW10NW8W8NW6NW7NW6NW4NW4S7CalmS9SW11SW7SW8W10SW10

Tide / Current Tables for New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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New Canal USCG station
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:10 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:41 AM CDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:07 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:20 AM CDT     0.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:09 PM CDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:57 PM CDT     0.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:47 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.30.30.30.30.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:40 AM CDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:10 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:06 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:33 PM CDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:46 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.50.40.30.20.20.20.20.30.30.40.50.60.60.70.80.911110.90.90.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.