Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Orleans, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:27PM Thursday October 18, 2018 9:07 PM CDT (02:07 UTC) Moonrise 2:15PMMoonset 12:24AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 415 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 18 2018
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas building to 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..East winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 415 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis..High pressure covering most of the eastern u.s. And southern plains will move east through Friday. The stalled front in the gulf of mexico will move back to the north towards the coast Friday into early Saturday before another stronger cold front moves through the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday morning. A coastal trough of weak surface low may develop near the texas coast by Tuesday or Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Orleans, LA
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location: 30.07, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 182055
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
355 pm cdt Thu oct 18 2018

Discussion
Quite tranquil conditions are in place over the CWA as post frontal
air mass in still in place. The cold front that moved through has
stalled over the northern gulf of mexico and is in the process of
dissipating. Not much change expected overnight with clear skies
prevailing and temps falling down into the upper 50s to upper 60s.

An upper ridge draped along the northern gulf coast will begin to
erode across the local area Friday as trough digs across the upper
and mid mississippi valley. At the same time, a surface ridge north
of the area will be sliding east, allow for onshore flow and
moisture to return. The combination of weakening subsidence aloft
and increasing surface moisture may spark off a few showers Friday.

So will be carrying slight chance pops throughout the day along with
highs in the lower to mid 80s. No reason to stray far from guidance.

The main upper trough north of the area will expand and deepen while
tracking across the eastern third of the country. Due to is broad
shape and track, it will gradually bring a cold front through the
forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening. Little to no
instability leading up to and as the front passes means the
probability is too low for any mention in the forecast. Coverage
should be around the 50% mark although timing of the placement of
highest pops is still uncertain as the ECMWF and GFS are not
consistent on this parameter.

Sunday and Monday will bring fall weather back to the area. The air
mass behind the front will be carrying with it dewpoints in the mid
30s to mid 40s. On the temperature side, 500mb height falls will
keep highs limited to upper 60s lower 70s Sunday. Monday may be
slightly warmer, but not much.

Moving into the middle of next week, its looking like a repeat cycle
of an upper ridge south of the region with a trough swinging through
the mid section of the country. Some runs of the GFS have indicated
a strong surface low will track across northern la & ms. This
pattern can be conducive for severe weather across the cwa. However,
the latest model run of the GFS and the ECMWF no longer show this
scenario. Will have to monitor for changes in model solutions.

Meffer

Aviation
Vfr conditions with generally clear skies and excellent visibilities
are expected to continue through the evening and likely into the
late night and morning hours on Friday. A return of cloud cover from
the south may start to bring some scattered to broken clouds with
bases 030-040 by late morning Friday to khum, kmsy, knew and kgpt.

22 td

Marine
Pressure gradient remains strong enough for marginal small craft
advisory winds near 20 knots with higher gusts over the western
coastal waters, otherwise the weak cold air advection and pressure
gradient has relaxed across remaining waters. Will allow the small
craft advisory (sca) to end at 4 pm and will maintain "small craft
exercise caution" for western waters through most of tonight. High
pressure will continue to work east into the atlantic and return
flow will begin to set back up late Friday but will be mostly weak
with winds around 10 knots or less. The next cold front will quickly
be on the way and will move through the coastal waters Saturday.

Winds will become offshore and weak initially, but by Saturday night
once strong cold air advection sets in winds will quickly pick up
with at least SCA conditions in place. Winds may finally begin to
relax overnight Sunday but more so on Monday.

Forecast becomes quite uncertain heading into next week. Models have
been consistent on the development of a surface low but location and
track of this low has been very inconsistent and this will have
significant differences in the forecast. 22 td

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 58 83 64 74 0 10 10 40
btr 61 85 66 78 0 20 10 40
asd 62 84 68 83 10 20 10 40
msy 68 85 71 82 10 20 20 40
gpt 65 83 70 82 10 20 20 40
pql 64 84 68 84 10 20 20 40

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 4 pm cdt this afternoon for gmz570-
572.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 4 pm cdt this afternoon for gmz572.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 4 mi37 min NE 15 G 17 77°F 77°F1023.6 hPa
CARL1 10 mi37 min 74°F
FREL1 19 mi37 min NNE 11 G 13 76°F 1022.9 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 25 mi37 min NE 14 G 17 77°F 80°F1023.8 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 27 mi37 min NE 2.9 G 6 74°F 79°F1023.8 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 43 mi37 min NE 11 G 13 74°F 77°F1024.1 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA3 mi74 minNNE 1210.00 miFair77°F64°F64%1023.1 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA12 mi74 minNNE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F62°F58%1023.8 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA17 mi72 minNE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F68°F77%1022.9 hPa
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA23 mi74 minN 310.00 miFair69°F62°F78%1023.8 hPa

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE18NE17NE15NE17NE16NE15NE16NE16NE17NE19NE18E16NE12NE10NE11NE10NE9NE10NE11NE10NE10NE15NE12NE14
1 day agoNE10NE11--NE10NE12NE11NE12NE11NE11NE12NE12NE12NE14NE13NE11NE10NE12NE11NE13NE14NE13N17NE18NE16
2 days agoNE11E13NE10E8N11N11NE8NE9E7E4E8E5SE9SE10SE8SE8S10SE9SE10S11SE9SE7SE6SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:24 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:03 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:09 AM CDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:14 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:25 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:01 PM CDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.60.70.80.911.11.11.21.21.21.21.110.90.80.70.60.50.40.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:23 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:22 AM CDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:13 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:03 PM CDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.80.911.11.21.31.41.41.41.41.31.21.110.80.70.60.50.40.40.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.