Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Orleans, LA
May 14, 2024 7:07 PM CDT (00:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:05 AM Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 10:57 AM Moonset 12:20 AM |
GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 341 Pm Cdt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening - .
Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers.
Friday - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Friday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday - West winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Sunday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night - North winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 341 Pm Cdt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
winds will become more west to southwesterly and decrease to less than 10 knots through the afternoon today. Southerly component to light winds remains intact through midweek but will gradually increase and become more southeasterly by late Thursday into Friday ahead of the next low pressure system. Thunderstorm activity becomes increasingly likely to cause issues by Friday into Saturday morning with a stalling boundary.
winds will become more west to southwesterly and decrease to less than 10 knots through the afternoon today. Southerly component to light winds remains intact through midweek but will gradually increase and become more southeasterly by late Thursday into Friday ahead of the next low pressure system. Thunderstorm activity becomes increasingly likely to cause issues by Friday into Saturday morning with a stalling boundary.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 142322 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 622 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
KEY MESSAGE: Severe weather and excessive rainfall threats return to the area by Thursday night through Saturday morning. Exact details remain uncertain at this range, but we will continue to monitor the progress of this system over the next few days.
Aside from feathered cirrus from convective blowoff associated with more MCS activity over the central Gulf of Mexico, we have broken out into sunny skies areawide. This has allowed temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s, right around average for this time of year. A somewhat more balmy and "cooler" night expected tonight as radiational cooling will be more efficient and surface high pressure builds overhead.
Wednesday afternoon will approach the 90F mark at many locations as a shortwave ridge builds in and high pressure keeps skies largely clear. Light northwest flow will also assist in some subtle compressional warming from higher elevations. On Thursday, winds then flip back southerly and gradually increase along with upper- level sky cover in association with the next approaching system that could bring impacts to our area. Return flow will allow moisture to surge back north during the day on Thursday which will set the stage for the next round of excessive rainfall and severe weather threats to end the week.
Pertaining to excessive rainfall and severe weather threat: A trough within the subtropical jetstream pattern will eject out of SW CONUS/Northern Mexico on Thursday morning providing ample lift and open warm sector for widespread convective activity to initiate across the Southern Great Plains by the afternoon/evening. The primary area to watch will be a smaller leading shortwave within this flow which could assist in initiate warm sector convection across the Sabine River Basin which could organize and move northeast, clipping northern portions of our area through the overnight hours and into Friday morning. While we are outlooked for an excessive rainfall threat during this period, the extent of impacts further east into our area are more uncertain at this time.
The more notable risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall threat will come on Friday as the main trough pushes northeast into the ArkLaTex region and a trailing shortwave trough positioned further south provides a more focused area of lift that could initiate a more robust area of deep convection along the Texas coast extending northeast into southern Louisiana and beyond Friday night.
Exact placement and timing of these troughs will be crucial. It is possible that we see multiple waves of convection pass near or through our area over the course of 36 hours which could drastically alter the thermodynamic and kinematic environments with each successive wave of convection has to work with. Therefore, the extent of impacts over our area associated with this event remains highly uncertain at this time, but it is safe to say that the threat for severe weather and excessive rainfall has increased for this period.
Once the main trough lifts into Friday night, the primary concern after that will be lingering excessive rainfall threat as a boundary stalls in generally west to east orientation along the LA coast.
Exact placement of where this stalls could prolong the potential for heavy rain into Saturday morning.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Monday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
The "cold" front associated with the system on Friday will move through during the day on Saturday, with quieter weather currently forecast Sunday and to start the next work week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Mostly VFR, clear skies, and light winds will prevail outside a brief period of possibly MVFR or lower CIGS between 11-14z, with the highest chances at MCB.
MARINE
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Light winds and calmer seas will prevail through Thursday as high pressure sets up overhead. Onshore flow increases with winds up to 10-15 knots by Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next system. Will need to monitor progress of showers and storms by Friday morning and into the weekend which could cause higher winds and seas than what is currently forecasted. Cannot rule out wake low activity in association with strong complexes of thunderstorms especially Friday night.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 60 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 64 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 30 ASD 66 91 67 89 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 69 89 72 88 / 0 0 0 20 GPT 66 89 68 87 / 10 0 0 10 PQL 65 91 65 90 / 10 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 622 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
KEY MESSAGE: Severe weather and excessive rainfall threats return to the area by Thursday night through Saturday morning. Exact details remain uncertain at this range, but we will continue to monitor the progress of this system over the next few days.
Aside from feathered cirrus from convective blowoff associated with more MCS activity over the central Gulf of Mexico, we have broken out into sunny skies areawide. This has allowed temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s, right around average for this time of year. A somewhat more balmy and "cooler" night expected tonight as radiational cooling will be more efficient and surface high pressure builds overhead.
Wednesday afternoon will approach the 90F mark at many locations as a shortwave ridge builds in and high pressure keeps skies largely clear. Light northwest flow will also assist in some subtle compressional warming from higher elevations. On Thursday, winds then flip back southerly and gradually increase along with upper- level sky cover in association with the next approaching system that could bring impacts to our area. Return flow will allow moisture to surge back north during the day on Thursday which will set the stage for the next round of excessive rainfall and severe weather threats to end the week.
Pertaining to excessive rainfall and severe weather threat: A trough within the subtropical jetstream pattern will eject out of SW CONUS/Northern Mexico on Thursday morning providing ample lift and open warm sector for widespread convective activity to initiate across the Southern Great Plains by the afternoon/evening. The primary area to watch will be a smaller leading shortwave within this flow which could assist in initiate warm sector convection across the Sabine River Basin which could organize and move northeast, clipping northern portions of our area through the overnight hours and into Friday morning. While we are outlooked for an excessive rainfall threat during this period, the extent of impacts further east into our area are more uncertain at this time.
The more notable risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall threat will come on Friday as the main trough pushes northeast into the ArkLaTex region and a trailing shortwave trough positioned further south provides a more focused area of lift that could initiate a more robust area of deep convection along the Texas coast extending northeast into southern Louisiana and beyond Friday night.
Exact placement and timing of these troughs will be crucial. It is possible that we see multiple waves of convection pass near or through our area over the course of 36 hours which could drastically alter the thermodynamic and kinematic environments with each successive wave of convection has to work with. Therefore, the extent of impacts over our area associated with this event remains highly uncertain at this time, but it is safe to say that the threat for severe weather and excessive rainfall has increased for this period.
Once the main trough lifts into Friday night, the primary concern after that will be lingering excessive rainfall threat as a boundary stalls in generally west to east orientation along the LA coast.
Exact placement of where this stalls could prolong the potential for heavy rain into Saturday morning.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Monday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
The "cold" front associated with the system on Friday will move through during the day on Saturday, with quieter weather currently forecast Sunday and to start the next work week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Mostly VFR, clear skies, and light winds will prevail outside a brief period of possibly MVFR or lower CIGS between 11-14z, with the highest chances at MCB.
MARINE
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Light winds and calmer seas will prevail through Thursday as high pressure sets up overhead. Onshore flow increases with winds up to 10-15 knots by Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next system. Will need to monitor progress of showers and storms by Friday morning and into the weekend which could cause higher winds and seas than what is currently forecasted. Cannot rule out wake low activity in association with strong complexes of thunderstorms especially Friday night.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 60 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 64 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 30 ASD 66 91 67 89 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 69 89 72 88 / 0 0 0 20 GPT 66 89 68 87 / 10 0 0 10 PQL 65 91 65 90 / 10 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA | 4 mi | 50 min | NNE 5.1G | 80°F | 80°F | 29.74 | ||
| CARL1 | 10 mi | 50 min | 74°F | |||||
| SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA | 25 mi | 50 min | SSW 16G | 81°F | 72°F | 29.74 | ||
| BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA | 27 mi | 50 min | 83°F | 81°F | 29.75 | |||
| WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS | 43 mi | 50 min | SSW 8G | 86°F | 78°F | 29.70 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNEW LAKEFRONT,LA | 3 sm | 14 min | N 04 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 84°F | 72°F | 66% | 29.73 | |
| KMSY LOUIS ARMSTRONG NEW ORLEANS INTL,LA | 12 sm | 14 min | WSW 09 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 84°F | 68°F | 58% | 29.73 | |
| KNBG NEW ORLEANS NAS JRB/ALVIN CALLENDER FIELD,LA | 17 sm | 12 min | WSW 09 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 81°F | 72°F | 74% | 29.73 | |
| KASD SLIDELL,LA | 23 sm | 14 min | SSW 04 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 82°F | 70°F | 66% | 29.73 |
Tide / Current for New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, Tide feet
Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:19 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:06 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:09 AM CDT -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:56 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:45 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:18 PM CDT 1.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:19 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:06 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:09 AM CDT -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:56 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:45 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:18 PM CDT 1.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0 |
| 6 am |
| -0.1 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0.1 |
| 9 am |
| -0.1 |
| 10 am |
| -0.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
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